I updated the chart with the most recent sales data. It looks like this week's data could be the nail in the coffin for the PSP in this contest. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars seemed to be the PSP's other sure hit besides Gran Turismo, but Grand Theft Auto's weak Americas opening makes it seem unlikely. The PSP still has some games with brand recognition, like Little Big Planet, Assassin's Creed: Bloodlines, Jak and Daxter, Teken 6, and Phantasy Star Portable 2 in Japan. But with GTA not doing well basically all of those games would need to perform on the high end of expectations for PSP to have a chance.
So what do you all think, is there is chance for PSP in this contest? If so which games are you expecting to help the PSP out the most? After having a few weeks of sales data in what do people think the final standings will look like (total numbers wise, i.e DS 10 million to PSP 7 million etc.)

If we include digital downloads the psp will outsell the DS by a shit ton. But without that it will be a close one.

would be close with downloads but i think ds would still be better.

No it wouldn't.  Digital downloads will just be another excuse for PSP games underperforming.

right now the difference is only 200k with downloads I think it would be quite close especially as gran turismo came free with psp gos in europe.

edit: i'm a bit confused does the game have to be released in the the holidays or is it just sales during the holidays, if it's the latter the ds will easily win but from my understanding the game does have to be released during the holidays.   

Pokemon GS, KH 358/2, Layton, Brain Training, MK DS, M&L, NMSB, Nintendogs, and probably a few others are all going to sell well for the holidays. Some of these will beat the top 5 you have on your lists.

Not a chance in America, the exalted PSP software revival has been an objective failure here, with only Dissidia pulling decent figures since the AAA roll out started this summer. To put this in context, in just 3 weeks Scribblenauts (a word-of mouth, new IP, DS 3rd party hit) outsold MHFU, Rock Band Unplugged, Soulcalibur BD and GT PSP combined so far.  PSP games just don't sell outside Japan.

In Japan, maybe depending on when we cut off "holiday games". DS doesn't have anything that huge for Q4 except Layton 4 and Zelda, though PSP doesn't really have any stand outs itself now that KH BBS got pushed to 2010.

scribblenauts hasn't outsold all of them games combined.

@Grimes: Only games released in October or later are counted, so most of the games you mention will not be counted for this.

I thought that PSP didnt sell software anymore because of piracy. Anyways, the DS games will outsell the PSP ones.