For the past few weeks it's been selling more than 25k a week. I think it could hit 5 million by sometime in 2012

Whoa lots of crow to eat in this thread.

People really over estimated god of war 3 and GT5.

"10 million with ease" LMAO!

If Sony hadn't given so much Uncharted 2 away with the big hard drive sku, it'd be the same.

It goes both ways...Tons of people over estimated and under estimated.

God of War 3 was over estimated... Lies

yawns

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=86948

That doesn't surprise me in the least. When it comes to exclusive games many people love to hate and put down stupidly low numbers. 

Keep in mind I only skimmed this thread a bit so that's why my quote to him said that.

God of War 3 is pretty much guaranteed to hit 5 million. Might even do it this year with trilogy and ultimate collection sales included.

OMG I can't stop laughing at that thread. Most people thought it would do less than 1.5 million by the and of 2009. And a lot of people thought it would do only 600-800k just lololololol. And looking at the final results it was almost at 3 million by year's end. I hope Uncharted 3 can surprise us the same way UC2 did

This is true, so it's a good thing i tallied before posting, here were my findings:

Official Results

Overestimated/ Underestimated

Uncharted 2 = 18 / 29

God of War 3 = 31 / 11

Gran Turismo 5 = 35 / 3 *** Corrected

Totals

Overestimated/ Underestimated

84/ 43

Final Result: 41 overestimated surplus

This doesn't include guesses which were correct by being in range (4.5-5 million for example) or correct within 200,000.

Personally I feel really bad for the GT5 underachievers who were mocked for their guesses, but still closer by far then the majority of other guesses.

Nope, there may have been the odd repeated guess counted but the difference would be no more than 3 or 4. Not enough to tip the scales out of the overestimates favour. As it stands, Uncharted 2 is the only game to do better than expected, God of War 3 and GT5 are underperforming significantly and as I said before, there are still more overestimations then underestimations.

Not sure why you're singling out, pre-release guesses. Several of the post release guesses are also way over and this was using more up to date figures. You'd think that would mean they'd be more accurate.

There's been no cherry picking involved, this is every guess from the inception of the topic to the last post being mine, if people updated their figures (very few did) they were usually upward revisions and not even that drastic. The only cherry picking here has been done by you.

Maybe, most likely not. Either way, they're incorrect AT THIS MOMENT. Therefoe much crow to be eaten from the day these games went on sale to now and a long long time ahead.

When that happens, the crow serving will stop. For the next 5-6 years, servings will continue.The bottom line is, even using revised sales date, there are way more over predictions overall and by a far larger margin of error than any of the Uncharted 2 guesses. Which if anything further justifies that it's the over guesses who should be eating crow.

Well that's see hmm. Starting with the over 9.5m+ ones first

Total of 17 said over 9.5 million - They should all be eating crow as these are even further off base then the Uncharted 2/gow predictions. Averaging the ranges, bings us a total guess of 177 Million sales, for an average guess of 10.4 million copies of GT5, approximately 4 million off of what it is now. Tsk.

Lets see who simply guessed over it's current total

Total of 18 estimates and a total of 151.8 million copies of GT5 is an average of 8.43 million.

Combine that with the above and you get 328.8 million / 35  and you get an average of 9.39 million for GT5, 3 million over estimated overall. A whopping 46 % more sales then it has.

More importantly, anyone above should be eating much crow, every day until it matches their estimates. Which is either many years of never, the latter looking more likely.

So as proven, 35 over estimates was within tolerance of what I said above and proves there was no cherry picking, only 4 duplicate estimates, any revisions have been posted. Thus confirming I'm being truthful. Once again the only cherry picking done by you. 3? Seriously? Check again before posting.

To finalise this analysis those who under estmated GT5

3 people (1 more than i originally said so I guess I missed it) - An average of 5.5 million copies of GT5, within 800K of its current total.

And those who were within 200,000 tolerance or technically still correct,  well done to you.

So in analysis

35 People over estimated GT5 sales by almost 3 million on average.

3 people underestimate GT5 sales by almost 800,000 on average.

3 people were close enough to be considered correct.

So odds are, if you made a GT5 sales prediction here, 88.5% of you should be eating crow.