Why does motion control have to be casual?

Holiday 2010 is automatically the most logical Natal launch time frame for the following reasons:

1) It would give 3rd party roughly 18 months to crank out their launch game. This is not a lot of time, but do able. First party would have had even longer to prepare.
2) World economy is expected to be well on the road to recovery which will help move more units. For this reason alone, I don't expect MS to launch Natal sooner than this even if they have the games ready before then.

More important than the release date is what software will be available.

That's what will make or break Natal.

From Major Nelson:

Just ran into one of the Natal team who was telling me about some of they stuff they're working on. Can't wait!!! :)about an hour ago

Yes of course they're going to try and target the casual audience, but they also showed us how it could be used for the hardcore ala Milo.

holy shit, you just called Milo hardcore. Thats pretty awesome.

Using that sort of interaction in a game like Fable or another RPG would appeal to that crowd IMO.

Nintendo isn't going to do a dang thing that we haven't already heard about.

What will Nintendo do next year to combat Natal?

Delay MarioGalaxy2 to 3rd Quarter

Launch Nintendo Vitality sensor with ViiTality (Mii vitality tech demo style game) as well as about 5-10 third party vitality games

Launch Legend Of Zelda in the 4th quarter

Launch Pikmin3 and maybe that Donkey Kong game they promised us in 2005

Thats what we know will happen next year. Will Nintendo have to drastically change their approach to challenge Natal? I don't think so, because if you think about it the hardcore gamers will all lean towards Link and Mario's next showings while the casual will be getting Vitality Sensor. Also Nintendo might release another WiiFit or maybe cut the price of the WiiFitPlus bundle!

Nintendo doesn't have to worry about expanding their market next year. They just have to hold their existing market. Keeping the casuals who already own Wii's from picking up 360's. Also to be honest of the software Microsoft has shown only Milo really looks casual, dodgeball, painting, fighting games, racing etc...etc... aren't really that casual to begin with.

Its all about producing things that non-gamers would like to do on a game console. Natal has the potential but Microsoft hasn't used all that potential yet. I thought for sure a fitness or educational game was going to be shown when I first saw Natal during the E3 conferance, but nope Microsoft stuck to the hardcore genre's showing very little casual content.

The most casual content shown was that girl chatting with her friend trying on a dress. And of course Milo could have various non-gaming applications, like keeping seniors in a senior home company.

I think in the end it will be, Sony's Wiimote rip off Versus Natal and Nintendo's vitality sensor!

All three companies have announced casual potential hardware but I don't think Nintendo will need to do much to retain its position as reigning champ. Not to mention non-gamers aren't going to want to shell out an additional 200$ for Natal when they can shell out 275$ for a Wii and get the Vitality Sensor and WiiFitPlus (Balance Board) all for about the cost of a 360 Elite with Natal!