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Holiday 2010 is automatically the most logical Natal launch time frame for the following reasons:

1) It would give 3rd party roughly 18 months to crank out their launch game. This is not a lot of time, but do able. First party would have had even longer to prepare.
2) World economy is expected to be well on the road to recovery which will help move more units. For this reason alone, I don't expect MS to launch Natal sooner than this even if they have the games ready before then.