Quite the contrary.

Most of the fight for a generation is done in the planning stages before the generation even starts. The pre-period before launch and the business plan set up. The end part of the fight is in the 1st year. Unless competitors are able to keep even keel within a generation (which arguably only happened in the 4th gen and only in some regions) the hierarchy, the pecking order is decided early on within that 1st year. This sets the loyalties and allegiances that extend a system's lead and also a system's lag.

Neither Gamecube nor XBox 1 stood a chance against the PS2. The PS2 held the market to themselves practically for 2 years after devaluing Sega's Dreamcast. That generation was decided in 3 months after those newcomers launched. Gamecube dropped like a rock and stayed there & XBox never rose above the tall grass but they were newcomers anyway so you cut 'em some slack.

The time period where all systems are in play ARE the judging period. XBox 360 got a year headstart on the other two but could not penetrate Japan and was weaker than expected in Europe. It had a rough start and only picked up throughout the 1st year ending in the hit Gears of War. Wii was like stallion out of the stable and ran over the 360 in less than a year. Now we have a contest currently between these two competitors which if you look at the way things are going with 360's weaker reach in regions outside of USA doesn't bode well for them to be market leader. Wii has taken over worldwide and is looking strong for this very important holiday season. The question in this part is can 360 hang on and possibly take the lead back over. Halo 3 was a boon and yet hardware sales didn't match those amazing software sales. That week according to this chart it only pushed 360 over Wii by 25,000 when Wii has been on a slight ebb the past weeks. If they can't match Halo 3 or come close to it the Wii will start pulling ahead this year and especially in 2008.

See how quick that works? You CAN see how the race is going very quickly.

Sony launched in a major region late (Europe) and is lagging everywhere else (except New Zealand). It beat 360 in Japan but that's not saying much with that "Name is Mud in Japan" system that is the 360. In its BEST region (Japan) it gets bested by and large by its 7th gen competitor the Wii. Wii has dropped considerably in the past few weeks there and is STILL double the PS3 sales! What is THAT?! This ebbing won't last and sales will pick up again very soon.

You can take a look at how the systems are designed, the audience they are aiming for, and the support and reports of support behind them to make a call on how the race is going.

It's been a year. That tired excuse of it's too early to tell is nonsense. You could tell even BEFORE any launch if you know what to look for. The actual competition of all systems in 1st year is only your confirmation of your theories.

It only takes the 1st year and depending on how the race goes less than that to determine the outcome.

11 months since all contestants were on the battlefield. I think that's a healthy time period to make calls on how the race is going especially considering the trackable trends in sales. GBA beating PS3 in America on a continuous monthly basis??? That's PATHETIC. GBA is outdated by DS and is STILL outselling PS3 a new snazzy 7th gen powerhouse system. That is horrible. Even outsold by its predecessor and handheld counterpart.

You'll learn soon enough. I've seen too many of these "console wars" not to know the telltale signs.

John Lucas 

Quite the contrary.

Most of the fight for a generation is done in the planning stages before the generation even starts. The pre-period before launch and the business plan set up. The end part of the fight is in the 1st year. Unless competitors are able to keep even keel within a generation (which arguably only happened in the 4th gen and only in some regions) the hierarchy, the pecking order is decided early on within that 1st year. This sets the loyalties and allegiances that extend a system's lead and also a system's lag.

Neither Gamecube nor XBox 1 stood a chance against the PS2. The PS2 held the market to themselves practically for 2 years after devaluing Sega's Dreamcast. That generation was decided in 3 months after those newcomers launched. Gamecube dropped like a rock and stayed there & XBox never rose above the tall grass but they were newcomers anyway so you cut 'em some slack.

The time period where all systems are in play ARE the judging period. XBox 360 got a year headstart on the other two but could not penetrate Japan and was weaker than expected in Europe. It had a rough start and only picked up throughout the 1st year ending in the hit Gears of War. Wii was like stallion out of the stable and ran over the 360 in less than a year. Now we have a contest currently between these two competitors which if you look at the way things are going with 360's weaker reach in regions outside of USA doesn't bode well for them to be market leader. Wii has taken over worldwide and is looking strong for this very important holiday season. The question in this part is can 360 hang on and possibly take the lead back over. Halo 3 was a boon and yet hardware sales didn't match those amazing software sales. That week according to this chart it only pushed 360 over Wii by 25,000 when Wii has been on a slight ebb the past weeks. If they can't match Halo 3 or come close to it the Wii will start pulling ahead this year and especially in 2008.

See how quick that works? You CAN see how the race is going very quickly.

Sony launched in a major region late (Europe) and is lagging everywhere else (except New Zealand). It beat 360 in Japan but that's not saying much with that "Name is Mud in Japan" system that is the 360. In its BEST region (Japan) it gets bested by and large by its 7th gen competitor the Wii. Wii has dropped considerably in the past few weeks there and is STILL double the PS3 sales! What is THAT?! This ebbing won't last and sales will pick up again very soon.

You can take a look at how the systems are designed, the audience they are aiming for, and the support and reports of support behind them to make a call on how the race is going.

It's been a year. That tired excuse of it's too early to tell is nonsense. You could tell even BEFORE any launch if you know what to look for. The actual competition of all systems in 1st year is only your confirmation of your theories.

It only takes the 1st year and depending on how the race goes less than that to determine the outcome.

11 months since all contestants were on the battlefield. I think that's a healthy time period to make calls on how the race is going especially considering the trackable trends in sales. GBA beating PS3 in America on a continuous monthly basis??? That's PATHETIC. GBA is outdated by DS and is STILL outselling PS3 a new snazzy 7th gen powerhouse system. That is horrible. Even outsold by its predecessor and handheld counterpart.

You'll learn soon enough. I've seen too many of these "console wars" not to know the telltale signs.

John Lucas

I agree with what you say very much, yes the way things are now were predetermined long before the consols launched, but do you really think there is no chance for change ??? We all have seen sony do their best to turn the tides for the PS3 and most here think the 40Gig will be the first step in the right direction... do you think it will change nothing in the long run ??? Yes the PS3 has been taking a beating expecially considering the loss of big 3rd party exclusives but do you think Sony doesn´t know this and is working against it ??? 

I know the PS brandname has not been pulling the PS3 as many predicted, I always thought this was because people liked the PS2 games more than the console but with a lower price and some bigger games comming out do you think they have no chance of increasing the install base significantly ???

I agree with most everything you wrote but for some reason I´m not convinced the dices have fallen and nothing can be changed, sure there will be no PS3 domination, it will have a hard enough time catching the 360 but has good chances considering Japan. But I still don´t see a big exodus of PS fans and 3rd developers the way you do.

After the first 11 months of last gen Nintendo was in a terrible possition, third parties didn´t care for the gamecube, the install base wans´t going anywhere... and then Nintendo focused on what they do best and what no other console maker can offer, now they are king of the hill once again.

I hold your oppinions very high but as many find them extreme at times, please share you thoughts on what I just wrote and explain why Sony can´t re-focus on what made them big and come back with a vengeance like Nintendo did ???