Hey guys!
(If you do not want to read the whole post, skip it and just go on to the rules and analysis)
The year 2007 is slowly ending now. It is October, not even 3 months to go to Christmas and after the boring month of September (at least in Japan) the hottest season of the videogaming year is upon us now!
But before everyone gets excited about their console of choice and it´s christmas performance (and before this analysis is too easy because there are just some more weeks to predict 
) it would be nice to get your Japan 2007 and 2008 predicitons.
Seeing everyones oppionion here would be great, especially in January: Who was close, who was completely off? And what are your weekly 2008 predictions? John Lukas, anyone?
During the following 5 minutes 15 minutes of your read I will try to point out my thoughts and will have some rough analysis myself.
Please keep in mind:
1) The following weekly average figures include Christmas and release weeks of big games, so if they seem to be too high at first think twice.
2) I do not want anyone to post lists of exclusive titles with a 2007/2008 release date. We know the PS3 is getting Final Fantasy and the Wii numbers will increase when Mario Galaxy hits. Those things are for certain.
3) Please keep your predictions serious. Predicting the Xbox 360 is going to sell 7 million units in 2008 is just plain crazy. Please do not post such predictions and if anyone else posts them: Ignore it. This is just about your personal oppinion.
Now. Here are my 2008 thoughts. And yes, I want you to critizice them if you think they are silly as long as you keep it nice.
2007 console sales up to this point:
| Console | Year | Total |
|---|---|---|
 | 5,502,489 | 19,555,747 |
 | 2,691,125 | 3,664,593 |
 | 1,898,799 | 6,513,640 |
 | 742,296 | 1,214,901 |
 | 620,983 | 22,108,019 |
 | 162,312 | 447,626 |
Nintendo Wii:
2007: The Wii currently stands at 2,7 million units sold in 2007. After 39 weeks of sales this is an average of 69k consoles each week. After a slow September, Wii sales should pick up again in mid october and stay on a very high level for the rest of the year.
Here are my weekly average predictions for the rest of the year:
October: 25-35k
November: 50-60k
December: 140-170k
All in all I expect the Wii to sell another 1.00 - 1.20 million units in 2007 which brings us to 3.7 - 3.9 million units in 2007.
2008:
In 2008 publishers will finally be able to get all of their Wii titles out there. Together with Nintendos casual titles I expect momentum to be big, though not as big as DS sales in it´s second year.
I expect the Wii to sell 4 - 4,5 million units in 2008.
Playstation 3:
The PS3 currently stands at 0.742 million units in 2007. After 39 weeks of sales this is an average of 19k consoles each week. 2007 was a bad year for the PS3. With much delayed titles, a high price and slow Blu-Ray growing rates the PS3 saw some lackluster sales until September. But slow selling consoles tend to have a higher sales increase (percentage-wise) during christmas. Here are my weekly average predictions for the rest of 2007:
October: 10-15k
November: 25-35k
December: 70-80k
All in all I expect the PS3 to sell another 450-500k units in 2007 which brings us to 1,0 - 1.25 million PS3´s in 2007.
2008:
I´ll be clear: I do not expect the PS3 to overtake the Wii in 2008. Still, 2008 will be a much better year for the PS3, with sales boosters like Metal Gear, Final Fantasy and others.
I expect the PS3 to sell a solid 2 million units in 2008.
Xbox 360:
The Xbox 360 currently stands at 0.162 million consoles sold in 2007. After 39 weeks of sales this is an average of 4.1k consoles each week. 2007 was a good year for the 360, after Blue Dragon made it´s sales explode in the end of 2006. And there is still one big title to go: Lost Odyssey will help the sales of Microsofts console much. The question is: HOW much? If I´m correct with my release date for L.O. (in December) I would give you the following average weekly numbers:
October: 2-4k
November: 4-5k
December: 30k
All in all I expect the Xbox 360 to sell another 170k units in 2007 which brings us to 310-340k units sold in 2007.
2008
I´m honest now: I do not have a guess what the 360 will do in 2008. But as it is the consoles 3rd year, a price drop is possible, some ports of big PS3 games hit the system and Microsoft should be able to have another one or two big titles in 2008 I expect the 360 to sell anywhere from 150k-350k.
Nintendo DS:
The NDS currently stands at 5,5 million consoles sold in 2007. After 39 weeks of sales this is an average of 141k units sold per week. After a slow September and October the DS should see a great boost in November/December again.
My weekly average predictions:
October: 70-80k
November: 100-120k
December: 220-270k
All in all I expect the DS to sell another 1.8 - 2.0 million units in 2007 which brings us to 7.3 - 7.5 million consoles sold in 2007.
2008:
Personally I expect momentum to wear of a bit. I predict a weekly average of less than 100k, unless Nintendo doesn´t give us the next Brain Training game (= 4 million units seller). I expect the DS to sell another 4-5 million units in 2008.
Playstationportable:
The PSP currently stands at 1.9 million units sold in 2007. After 39 weeks of sales this is an average of 48.7k consoles every week. After a big September and the new PSP model I expect PSP numbers to drop a bit in October/early November but to go up again in December.
Here are my weekly average predictions:
October: 60-70k (thanks to the boost of the new PSP model)
November: 30-40k (Sony consoles tend to sell less in November than they did in October)
December: 80-90k units
All in all I expect the PSP to sell another 800-850k units in 2007 which brings us to 2.7 - 2.8 million PSP sold in 2007.
2008:
In all honesty, I expect PSP momentum to get much smaller in 2008. The same goes for the DS of course, as I pointed out earlier. After it´s biggest year in 2007 I expect PSP sales to decline pretty hard in 2008, as it happened with nearly all "2nd place consoles" after their third year. I expect the PSP to sell another 1.25 - 1.5 million units in 2008.
So that´s it.
What are your thoughts and ideas?
