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Forums - General - The US Economy: the "new normal"?

being pretty much underemployed (underemployed, meaning that I have a BS from college, but there are no open jobs for my industry; thus I am taking a lower job that doesn't require any training I received from school) for the past year now, I am pretty much resigned to the fact that what we are facing now is a "new normal" and if the economy does recover, it may take years for it to even come close to the level it once was in 2006/2007, if ever.

I got to thinking to myself, "things were pretty good back 3 years ago; but maybe they shouldn't have been so good in the first place." My plans for the future now have completely changed. The income I'm getting now, being substantially lower than what I used to get paid, is probably what I need to plan to survive around.

Anyways, do you think that what we're facing now is the "new normal"? or do you think we will bounce back quickly within the next two years?



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It will probably level out and slowly rise back to where it had been, until another recession that is.



that's the thing, I don't think it will rise back as quickly as it fell; i think it might take 3 - 4 years before the whole unemployment thing resolves itself.



the question is almost impossible to answer, it depends on so many different variables.



How many people actually end up using the degree they worked so hard for in college?

Out of my extended family and a number of family friends, the only people I know of that are now employed in their original field of study are teachers, doctors, and nurses.  Other than that, they all do random crap. Take my dad for example. He has a music degree, but has been programming for 30 years. Or one of our family friends, who got an engineering degree, designed 2-3 buildings, then went on to do clerical work for the Corps of Engineers. He works around engineers now, but his current job did not require his degree whatsoever. Or my sister, who has a business degree but ended running the entertainment program at a nursing home.

Then there are my two uncles that opened businesses, one a mechanic shop and one an electronics repair shop.  Or another friend of the family that worked his way through the electrical field from the ground up and now owns his own electrical biz. He started as a mere apprentice (and I was an apprentice under him for a few months back after Katrina), and is now a master electrician with two other master electricians working under him.  These guys don't even have degrees.

And then there's Gnizmo from this very site. He decided to get a degree in psychology. It's practically impossible to do something with a psychology degree unless you have a masters, so now he works the front desk at a detox center.

My dad and I share the same philosophy: Just a get a degree. Most places only care that you have a degree of some form, and what field the degree in matters little. After you get the degree, it's just a matter of finding something you enjoy and trying your best to make a living at it. Sometimes, even the degree isn't necessary. My aunt got her GED years after dropping out of high school, and currently loves being a fire fighter.

Straying from this long history of my family and friends and returning to the topic at hand, the current economic climate is certainly decreasing the number of available jobs in most (if not all) industries, but chances are you weren't going to use your degree anyway. Just sayin'.



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Get used to this. To simplify things, for the last 10 years we have, as a nation, been living above our means. This means for a period, we have to live below our means until we pay off the debt. Once that's done, we then will, hopefully, live within our means, which is below where we were 3 years ago.

So I don't expect it to be like it was 3 years ago until our means get us there, so 30 years or so.



A lot of businesses are showing a 20-30% decline in revenue these days, which is much above the reported GDP contractions. People are saving more money, at a ratio which also points to US GDP going down by double-digit percentages.

These contractions aren't yet fully shown in GDP, so you are right to expect this to last a while.

The previous "normal" wasn't normal at all, for the reason that Mafoo pointed out.

 



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NJ5 said:

A lot of businesses are showing a 20-30% decline in revenue these days, which is much above the reported GDP contractions. People are saving more money, at a ratio which also points to US GDP going down by double-digit percentages.

To add to this, most of the savings that we see from people, are really just paying off there debt. Once that's paid off, most will go back saving little.

They will probably not go back spending more then they make however, so the GDP will not get back to where it was, but it will get better then it is today.



That Guy said:

being pretty much underemployed (underemployed, meaning that I have a BS from college, but there are no open jobs for my industry; thus I am taking a lower job that doesn't require any training I received from school) for the past year now, I am pretty much resigned to the fact that what we are facing now is a "new normal" and if the economy does recover, it may take years for it to even come close to the level it once was in 2006/2007, if ever.

I got to thinking to myself, "things were pretty good back 3 years ago; but maybe they shouldn't have been so good in the first place." My plans for the future now have completely changed. The income I'm getting now, being substantially lower than what I used to get paid, is probably what I need to plan to survive around.

Anyways, do you think that what we're facing now is the "new normal"? or do you think we will bounce back quickly within the next two years?

I doubt it'll stay this way for employment.  I mean we're at France levels of unemployment right now.


Well not really.  At least your not forced into an unpaid internship.

It will take a while though yes.



Kasz216 that's a weird argument. What's the basis for saying France unemployment is USA's liimit?

(btw I think France's unemployment is lower than USA's right now, lower 9ish vs higher 9ish)

 



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