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Forums - Sales - Does anyone still believe in a major turnaround this gen?

We know he has multiple accounts because he keeps spreading the same FUD with all of them. When he creates a new account, he begins trying to do stealth trolling, but when the discussion gets nastier, he always repeats the same reasoning:

"The difference is aligned launch sales are facts about sales. You can dislike it, but it makes sense. If launch date doesn't make sense, then PS2 is by far the number one console in installed base, so I think launch date matters somehow, hence aligned launches matter too, otherwise you can't talk about installed base / total sales."

He twists the reality to fit his agenda, and does in a very blatant way, that's why we know who he is. What I can't understand is why he keeps coming, when he has at least five banned acounts already.



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RageBot said:

Sure, but what will happen when FFXIII (Famitsu's most anticipated game, and the first FF on this gen's console, games that usually sell 4 mil copies) comes, and Versus, and ToV:sigma, and other JRPGs?

Edit: Also, what will happen with a PS3 pricecut?
First, let's consider the fact that the PS3 outsold the Wii in Japan for a pretty long time this year, even when it costed a lot more.
Second, I think that by going down from 400$ to 300$ (or the equivalent in Japan) you market increases by a much larger amount then lowering your price from 250$ to 150-200, so a PS pricecut will have a big impact.
Third, Japanese pepole prefare their consoles much lighter, so a Slim version of the PS3 can cause quite an impact there.

First, Famitsu's most wanted list is useless. There was a time when Blue Dragon topped it. It's a list for hardcore gamers, by hardcore gamers. It'd be like arguing that since a film won the best indie award at Sundance it's gonna beat Spider Man 4 at the box office. All those JRPGs target the same demographic basically, so you can't expect it to carry the PS3 much. FFXIII may have wider appeal, but those games that usually sold 4 million also released on the undisputed winner of each console generation when the genres themselves were more in vogue. Hell, it's doubtful there will be 4 million PS3's sold in Japan by the time FFXIII comes out, which means a more reasonable expectation for that game would be 1.5 million to 2 million LTD.

The PS3 price cut will, if it's lucky, do what a similar price cut/software blitz did to the 360 -  a 200% increase in sales in the medium term. More realistically, it will raise the baseline decently but have minimal effect in the long run. Even a doubling of sales only puts it at current Wii levels, which aren't great either.

I'm being pretty harsh, but here's what I'm getting at - the PS3 lost Japan. It aint getting it back. It's not a matter of price or size anymore, it's demand. Or the lack thereof. There simply isn't much buzz here for it in the demographics that need to buy it. I doubt that those big games from last gen will even make that big of a splash since markets aren't static - consumers move on. Sony unfortunately did not read the market correctly and made boneheaded moves in Japan, in terms of cost and software. It's past the point of no return. It could have a relatively decent 360 style come back, but it won't beat the Wii, and it will be lucky to finish at 8 million sold in it's lifetime in Japan. Really, really lucky.



@Dianko : The PS3 didn't lose Japan at all, it sold 3 million there vs only 1 million Xbox 360, and it even outsold the Wii multiple weeks this year. Last time I checked the Wii seemed to loose steam in worldwide weekly sales, while still being easily on top.

The casual gamer crowd is on Wii though, and they're more numerous than core gamers. Warning ! I don't say at all that Wii has no core game / core gamer, games like Mario Galaxy or Zelda or Madworld are those games. But I say Wii has the casual gamers too, which puts it obviously on the top of the sales.

I don't understand what you say about the PS3 price cut. You say it would increase sales by 200 % (which I think is possible) then you say it wouldn't have effect in the long run. This second part doesn't make much sense for me.

For example, when MS cut the 360 price last september, it increased sales hugely and put the 360 in front of the PS3 in weekly sales, where it was constantly outsold.

To this day (on the long run), it hasn't changed back. I mean I think price cuts have permanent effects... If you think PS3 sales will increase by 200%, there's no reason to think on the long run it won't change anything on sales. It did for the 360.



mario64 said:
@Dianko : The PS3 didn't lose Japan at all, it sold 3 million there vs only 1 million Xbox 360, and it even outsold the Wii multiple weeks this year. Last time I checked the Wii seemed to loose steam in worldwide weekly sales, while still being easily on top.

The casual gamer crowd is on Wii though, and they're more numerous than core gamers. Warning ! I don't say at all that Wii has no core game / core gamer, games like Mario Galaxy or Zelda or Madworld are those games. But I say Wii has the casual gamers too, which puts it obviously on the top of the sales.

I don't understand what you say about the PS3 price cut. You say it would increase sales by 200 % (which I think is possible) then you say it wouldn't have effect in the long run. This second part doesn't make much sense for me.

For example, when MS cut the 360 price last september, it increased sales hugely and put the 360 in front of the PS3 in weekly sales, where it was constantly outsold.

To this day (on the long run), it hasn't changed back. I mean I think price cuts have permanent effects... If you think PS3 sales will increase by 200%, there's no reason to think on the long run it won't change anything on sales. It did for the 360.

Forgive me, I was both exagerrating my point and not being clear enough. I don't think it'll go up 200%. It wasn't hard for the 360, sales were so pitifully low 200% merely put it at an acceptable niche range.


What I meant in regards to the PS3 is that absolute sales are so low that it won't make a huge difference worldwide even with a large percentage increase here.

In regards to Japan, I stand by my statement that the PS3 lost Japan. Put a fork in it, it's done. It's not a matter of price, it's a matter of image and demand. The PS3 isn't as bad as the 360 in either regard, but it's pretty much slightly better than GC level. I repeat, there isn't enough interest here for it. I see it pretty often. I see it in the stores, in the games that my students talk about, that they are interested in. Sony has lost that vital demographic, because the trend in Japan was already moving away from the PS2 era successes many years ago and Sony didn't move to capitalise on it. Nintendo did. That's why my students are playing and giving a shit about the DS, and the Wii to a lesser extent. A price cut can only do so much when the appeal of the console is so limited to a particular demographic. The 360's price cut worked because the right software came out with the right price for that demographic, which is largely the same one that wants a PS3. A low priced PS3 with FFXIII and GT5 is not going to make the mountain of gamers put down their DS's and Wii's to drop 37000 yen for a cheaper PS3 with a game.



course it can turn around, by the end of this gen the ps3 will be either fairly close to xbox numbers or higher



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mario64 said:

To this day (on the long run), it hasn't changed back. I mean I think price cuts have permanent effects... If you think PS3 sales will increase by 200%, there's no reason to think on the long run it won't change anything on sales. It did for the 360.

 

You ignore that 199$ != 300$/350$ but hey, you are in it just to spin things the Sony way.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

@Bitmap : can you tell me more ? I'm not sure I understand what you mean (no sarcasm).



You assume any ps3 pricecut will produce permanent effects based on what happened after the last 360 pricecut.

Every 360 pricecut before did not produce permanent effects, it was only when they reached the 199$ pricepoint that a permanent uplift happened. That's because 199$ is the sweetspot for videogame consoles. While a ps3 pricecut will undeniably produce a spur in sales, 300$/350$ is still far from 199$.





Current-gen game collection uploaded on the profile, full of win and good games; also most of my PC games. Lucasfilm Games/LucasArts 1982-2008 (Requiescat In Pace).

Ok I understand and I completely agree with what you said. 199$ is definitely the sweet spot.

It's true that PS3 can't be sold at this price right now, but when it happens, I think it will really be huge for the sales. Is it 2010 or 2011, that I don't know, but a 199$ PS3 will definitely happen.

Then again, even a 50$ / 100$ to 300$ would already have great effects in my opinion. There are tons of people I know waiting on the sidelines to buy a PS3.



mario64 said:
Ok I understand and I completely agree with what you said. 199$ is definitely the sweet spot.

It's true that PS3 can't be sold at this price right now, but when it happens, I think it will really be huge for the sales. Is it 2010 or 2011, that I don't know, but a 199$ PS3 will definitely happen.

Then again, even a 50$ / 100$ to 300$ would already have great effects in my opinion. There are tons of people I know waiting on the sidelines to buy a PS3.


I think any price drop will create a stir for those that have been waiting, but it's only going to be a temporary surge until they get down to the competitive pricepoint.  The issue there is that even with cheaper chips and changes in manufacturing, they aren't going to make any money on such a venture until it's no longer relevant to the generation.  Sony has to be seeing that by now, and should likely be shooting for turnign a profit over gaining market share at this point.



Believing in the PLAYSTATION®3......IS.......S_A_C_R_I_L_E_G_E