RageBot said:
Sure, but what will happen when FFXIII (Famitsu's most anticipated game, and the first FF on this gen's console, games that usually sell 4 mil copies) comes, and Versus, and ToV:sigma, and other JRPGs?
Edit: Also, what will happen with a PS3 pricecut? First, let's consider the fact that the PS3 outsold the Wii in Japan for a pretty long time this year, even when it costed a lot more. Second, I think that by going down from 400$ to 300$ (or the equivalent in Japan) you market increases by a much larger amount then lowering your price from 250$ to 150-200, so a PS pricecut will have a big impact. Third, Japanese pepole prefare their consoles much lighter, so a Slim version of the PS3 can cause quite an impact there.
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First, Famitsu's most wanted list is useless. There was a time when Blue Dragon topped it. It's a list for hardcore gamers, by hardcore gamers. It'd be like arguing that since a film won the best indie award at Sundance it's gonna beat Spider Man 4 at the box office. All those JRPGs target the same demographic basically, so you can't expect it to carry the PS3 much. FFXIII may have wider appeal, but those games that usually sold 4 million also released on the undisputed winner of each console generation when the genres themselves were more in vogue. Hell, it's doubtful there will be 4 million PS3's sold in Japan by the time FFXIII comes out, which means a more reasonable expectation for that game would be 1.5 million to 2 million LTD.
The PS3 price cut will, if it's lucky, do what a similar price cut/software blitz did to the 360 - a 200% increase in sales in the medium term. More realistically, it will raise the baseline decently but have minimal effect in the long run. Even a doubling of sales only puts it at current Wii levels, which aren't great either.
I'm being pretty harsh, but here's what I'm getting at - the PS3 lost Japan. It aint getting it back. It's not a matter of price or size anymore, it's demand. Or the lack thereof. There simply isn't much buzz here for it in the demographics that need to buy it. I doubt that those big games from last gen will even make that big of a splash since markets aren't static - consumers move on. Sony unfortunately did not read the market correctly and made boneheaded moves in Japan, in terms of cost and software. It's past the point of no return. It could have a relatively decent 360 style come back, but it won't beat the Wii, and it will be lucky to finish at 8 million sold in it's lifetime in Japan. Really, really lucky.