NJ5 said:
akuma587 just one thing... Don't pay that much attention to those who say employment is a lagging indicator. This is a consumer-led and credit recession, where lower consumer appetite and people's/businesses' inability to pay their debt results in most of the problems, not just a recession generated by too much inventory which requires an adjustment in manufacturing capacity (i.e. the most typical kind of recession).
The full impact of the huge amount of unemployed people this year hasn't been felt yet. These people have only recently reduced their spending and many of them are just now getting into trouble with their mortgages and other debt.
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I don't have to pay attention to people to know that employment is a lagging indicator because historically it has always been a lagging indicator.
Everything you are saying is true, but what you are talking about has already been going on for the last year or so. I've been hearing people talk about the credit crunch since early 2008. Its not like you have unearthed something people didn't already know about. Why do you think the Democrats were so gung-ho about passing that credit card reform bill a few months ago? Because everybody was worried about exactly what you are talking about. Why do you think the Democrats allocated money (at the beginning of the year mind you) in the stimulus to allow states to extend unemployment benefits? Because everybody was worried about exactly what you are talking about. I mean frankly you are kind of late to the party on this one.
That's not even getting into the massive amounts of money and programs out there to help people refinance mortgages, people taking advantage of it on their own through directly with banks, people taking advantages of private avenues to manage their debt, etc. This stuff happens all the time even in GOOD economic times.
@ HappySqurriel:
So you are saying a slowing pace isn't significant at all. I agree that it can be given too much significance, but that doesn't mean it has no significance. If unemployment is increasing at 1% every month but then after a few months starts increasing by only .2%, are you saying that has no significance whatsoever in terms of when unemployment will start dropping?
I mean these aren't really abstract, complicated models we are talking about here. Its just looking at rates of change on graphs. You will be hard-pressed to find periods of high unemployment where this phenomenon didn't happen even though you claim it has no significance. And I would love for you to show me some.
And the rest of what you are talking about always happens when there is high unemployment. No one is claiming that unemployment numbers reflect the whole picture. But this isn't the first time we have had high employment numbers, so I don't really think you can claim nothing like what is happening now has happened before.
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