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Forums - General - Why the recession is not gonna be over anytime soon

NJ5 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
While I agree with him that the recession isn't over and probably wont be for another few moths to half a year, his outlook is a little too pessimistic, his concern is entirely focused on the consumer aspect of the issue, but he forgets that the great depression wasn't solved by letting all of the bad debt work itself out and consumer spending coming back. No in fact it wasn't until the government shouldered massive debt for its time as a percentage of GDP and began a massive public works project (helping to crush the Axis powers), that it was able to come out of the Depression. Letting the banks fail at the early stages of the Depression was one of the reasons it lasted so long because it caused even greater retractions in consumption and investment.

Now while the truth is that he's right that we will have to work out this debt at some point, doing it now will not recover the economy, but rather send it into a downward spiral. GDP is the sum of Consumption, Investment, Government expenditures, and Net Exports, so since consumption and investment are down, government spending has to step up to cover the gap.

Over indebted consumers and the consequence to banks was the reason the recession started, so there's a reason for people to focus on those aspects.

I don't think the Great Depression ended due to higher government debt. In fact the public works projects were seen as failures, and the Keynesians said the government wasn't spending enough.

Look at Japan and Sweden. Their banking crises only ended when the government forced an audit of the banks and let the insolvent ones fail. Shifting debt around and hiding it has never worked so far...

 


Actually it did, WW2 was a public works project, and it sent the government into massive debt for the time to fund it, it put millions of unemployed to work, the problem with the New Deal was it wasn't big enough, WW2 was big enough.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi said:
NJ5 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
While I agree with him that the recession isn't over and probably wont be for another few moths to half a year, his outlook is a little too pessimistic, his concern is entirely focused on the consumer aspect of the issue, but he forgets that the great depression wasn't solved by letting all of the bad debt work itself out and consumer spending coming back. No in fact it wasn't until the government shouldered massive debt for its time as a percentage of GDP and began a massive public works project (helping to crush the Axis powers), that it was able to come out of the Depression. Letting the banks fail at the early stages of the Depression was one of the reasons it lasted so long because it caused even greater retractions in consumption and investment.

Now while the truth is that he's right that we will have to work out this debt at some point, doing it now will not recover the economy, but rather send it into a downward spiral. GDP is the sum of Consumption, Investment, Government expenditures, and Net Exports, so since consumption and investment are down, government spending has to step up to cover the gap.

Over indebted consumers and the consequence to banks was the reason the recession started, so there's a reason for people to focus on those aspects.

I don't think the Great Depression ended due to higher government debt. In fact the public works projects were seen as failures, and the Keynesians said the government wasn't spending enough.

Look at Japan and Sweden. Their banking crises only ended when the government forced an audit of the banks and let the insolvent ones fail. Shifting debt around and hiding it has never worked so far...

 


Actually it did, WW2 was a public works project, and it sent the government into massive debt for the time to fund it, it put millions of unemployed to work, the problem with the New Deal was it wasn't big enough, WW2 was big enough.

There are several important distinctions between the impact World War 2 had on the economy and any stimulus that Obama can produce will have:

1) World War 2 was heavily financed through war-bonds while Obama's stimulus is financed through monetizing debt

2) World War 2 destroyed a large portion of the industry of developed nations and the largest and most advanced industrial nation in the world was the United States which gained the lion's share of the money from Europe's rebuilding.

3) World War 2 ensured that efficient companies were given money to produce a skilled labour force in order to develop advanced technology (which became the basis of the US' economy for the next 50 years); Obama's stimulus is given to corrupt and inefficient companies to pay back political favours from organized labour and the financial sector.



No, WW2 was nothing more than a production and employment bubble itself. There were still dozens of facets of the depression still lingering during the war. It wasn't until AFTER the war that the depression truly ended.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

People are high if they think this is going to end anytime soon. Things are going to get worse before they get any better. And they will not go back to "how it used to be."

Remember when everyone in late 07 early 08 was saying "don't call it a recession" then it wasn't until late 08 early 09 when people started saying the recession started in late 07 early 08 lol. When we are losing half a million jobs in a month and I'm hearing it may be close to 600k in July this can only continue to be called a recession for so long before people admit that it is a Depression.

Things are very serious right now.



Bet between Slimbeast and Arius Dion about Wii sales 2009:


If the Wii sells less than 20 million in 2009 (as defined by VGC sales between week ending 3d Jan 2009 to week ending 4th Jan 2010) Slimebeast wins and get to control Arius Dion's sig for 1 month.

If the Wii sells more than 20 million in 2009 (as defined above) Arius Dion wins and gets to control Slimebeast's sig for 1 month.

HappySqurriel said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
NJ5 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
While I agree with him that the recession isn't over and probably wont be for another few moths to half a year, his outlook is a little too pessimistic, his concern is entirely focused on the consumer aspect of the issue, but he forgets that the great depression wasn't solved by letting all of the bad debt work itself out and consumer spending coming back. No in fact it wasn't until the government shouldered massive debt for its time as a percentage of GDP and began a massive public works project (helping to crush the Axis powers), that it was able to come out of the Depression. Letting the banks fail at the early stages of the Depression was one of the reasons it lasted so long because it caused even greater retractions in consumption and investment.

Now while the truth is that he's right that we will have to work out this debt at some point, doing it now will not recover the economy, but rather send it into a downward spiral. GDP is the sum of Consumption, Investment, Government expenditures, and Net Exports, so since consumption and investment are down, government spending has to step up to cover the gap.

Over indebted consumers and the consequence to banks was the reason the recession started, so there's a reason for people to focus on those aspects.

I don't think the Great Depression ended due to higher government debt. In fact the public works projects were seen as failures, and the Keynesians said the government wasn't spending enough.

Look at Japan and Sweden. Their banking crises only ended when the government forced an audit of the banks and let the insolvent ones fail. Shifting debt around and hiding it has never worked so far...

 


Actually it did, WW2 was a public works project, and it sent the government into massive debt for the time to fund it, it put millions of unemployed to work, the problem with the New Deal was it wasn't big enough, WW2 was big enough.

There are several important distinctions between the impact World War 2 had on the economy and any stimulus that Obama can produce will have:

1) World War 2 was heavily financed through war-bonds while Obama's stimulus is financed through monetizing debt

2) World War 2 destroyed a large portion of the industry of developed nations and the largest and most advanced industrial nation in the world was the United States which gained the lion's share of the money from Europe's rebuilding.

3) World War 2 ensured that efficient companies were given money to produce a skilled labour force in order to develop advanced technology (which became the basis of the US' economy for the next 50 years); Obama's stimulus is given to corrupt and inefficient companies to pay back political favours from organized labour and the financial sector.


There are also distinctions between this recession and the Great Depression, this recession has much less unemployment, the financial industry isn't in as much chaos, industrial production isn't as far down, basically recovery is going to be much easier in this recession than in the Great Depression, also that advanced technology, was on the basis of government research and government contracts into new technologies.  So yeah there are differences, there are differences on both sides of the coin, but it still doesn't change the point that its not a working out of the debt that is going to recover the economy, it'll be government expenditures.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Viper1 said:
No, WW2 was nothing more than a production and employment bubble itself. There were still dozens of facets of the depression still lingering during the war. It wasn't until AFTER the war that the depression truly ended.


Actually it ended during the war, in fact by 1944-46 we were at a peak well above the hidtorical trendline, and the postwar recession was a tiny dip by comparision

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

If that is the only factor you use to determine a depression, then we probably shouldn't continue the issue.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Viper1 said:
If that is the only factor you use to determine a depression, then we probably shouldn't continue the issue.


GDP or gross domestic product is usually a good measure of the state of the economy, but here's unemployment as well

 

By 1942, unemployment had fallen below 5%

 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:


There are also distinctions between this recession and the Great Depression, this recession has much less unemployment, the financial industry isn't in as much chaos, industrial production isn't as far down, basically recovery is going to be much easier in this recession than in the Great Depression, also that advanced technology, was on the basis of government research and government contracts into new technologies.  So yeah there are differences, there are differences on both sides of the coin, but it still doesn't change the point that its not a working out of the debt that is going to recover the economy, it'll be government expenditures.

The recession isn't over, so you can't outright say we'll see less unemployment than before. Even in the Great Depression, things didn't crash overnight.

We're talking about trillions of dollars in excessive debt, and you think all will be fixed by government expenditures in the order of hundreds of billions, many of which are being used to fix existing state and municipal deficits?

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

I really doubt it'll get anywhere near 25% unemployment, we aren't even at 10 yet, 11-13% is probably the ceiling.

The problem with your analysis is that tit forgets a few things, first while there is trillions of dollars in debts in the US, GDP has not fallen by trillions, in addition money spent in the market tends to produce more effect than its amount based on propensity to save, what happens is that when the government spends a dollar, that dollar is multiplied by a certin coefficient across the entire economy, because that money is used to buys something, which is then used by the company that sold to pay its workers, or buy something else, which is then used by the workers and other companies to buys something, each time less is utilized, but it greater effect than just the one dollar, as a result hundreds of bllions can create trillions in effect.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)