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Forums - General - Why the recession is not gonna be over anytime soon

TheRealMafoo said:

So I guess when Obama talks about TARP creating jobs, helping people buy cars, and fixing the housing problem, he was just talking about Bank Employee's?

To say that TARP was not supposed to help fix these problems directly, is to just bold face lie. Own up to the fact that you expected this to happen, and it did none of it, and people will have a lot more respect for you.

Businesses cannot get capital unless the banks are lending.  Without capital, businesses can't invest and can't hire more people.  Consumers cannot buy houses and cars unless banks are lending.  That's a fact.  TARP has significantly increased how much banks are lending.  Many of the banks wouldn't even have been able to lend if they would have gone under.  To say that banks would be lending the same amount now that they would have been without TARP and aggressive monetary policy is contradicted by your very own claims.  You said that many banks and financial firms would have gone into bankruptcy.  I don't really think banks are just handing out loans when they are going through Chapter 11.  How much money is Lehman Brothers handing out?  Many of its assets are frozen.

I don't see anywhere he is talking about it occurring directly.  TARP allows banks to make loans.  That is the direct effect.  Obama talks about that throughout this speech.  The banks making the loans allows businesses to raise capital to hire more people, invest in inventory, etc.  The same applies to consumers getting money to buy products from banks.  Those are both secondary effects.  But secondary effects are pretty damn important, and yes, Congress and the executive branch were worried about those effects.  I never heard Obama say TARP was going to knock on your door and hand you a loan.  That would be a direct effect.

Frankly I think you are just pissing and moaning about semantics here.  I mean that was a press conference, not exactly language codified in the United States Code which has legal force and effect.  Your entire point is pretty much irrelevant, as it is more based on your ignorance and misunderstanding of the English language than anything substantive.

Helping the economy was one of the goals of TARP.  Yes, I agree.  To acheive that goal, TARP was designed to keep the financial system from collapsing.  That is almost entirely what the legislative language in TARP addresses.

Just because we aren't seeing +6% quarterly GDP growth doesn't mean TARP didn't acheive its goals.  That is what YOU claim should have happened.  I don't recall anyone claiming that was going to happen.  I recall Obama telling people that the recession was going to be long and hard, but that we are going to get through it.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

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TheRealMafoo said:
akuma587 said:
Yeah, adjustable rate mortgages have always been pretty dangerous, but fortunately a lot of people have taken advantages of the low interest rates and re-financed with a relatively low fixed mortgage rate.

The ones that could.

If you have an AMR on a house, and owe 200K on it, and the house is worth 180K (or less), you can't refinance. That's a very large category of home owners.

Not to mention the people who can afford to make there payments, but find it better not to. If someone still has a job, a 400K house with close to no equity, can still make his payments just fine, but the house is now worth 200K, letting it go is like making 200K in cash.

The question for people in that situation, is "is my credit rating worth 200K?". To a lot of people, the answer is no.

But once again, do you think people don't know this already.  People have been talking about this for almost a year and a half now once the housing market started going under.  You guys are almost a year and a half behind on the news cycle.

Is this going to be a problem?  Yes.  But we already knew that.  I mean what the hell do you guys think caused the sub-prime mortgage in the first place.  It was sub-prime mortgages just like these adjustable rate mortgages.  That's what a sub-prime mortgage is.  I don't see how you can claim that these are somehow unrelated.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

akuma587 said:
TheRealMafoo said:

So I guess when Obama talks about TARP creating jobs, helping people buy cars, and fixing the housing problem, he was just talking about Bank Employee's?

To say that TARP was not supposed to help fix these problems directly, is to just bold face lie. Own up to the fact that you expected this to happen, and it did none of it, and people will have a lot more respect for you.

Businesses cannot get capital unless the banks are lending.  Without capital, businesses can't invest and can't hire more people.  Consumers cannot buy houses and cars unless banks are lending.  That's a fact.  TARP has significantly increased how much banks are lending.  Many of the banks wouldn't even have been able to lend if they would have gone under.  To say that banks would be lending the same amount now that they would have been without TARP and aggressive monetary policy is contradicted by your very own claims.  You said that many banks and financial firms would have gone into bankruptcy.  I don't really think banks are just handing out loans when they are going through Chapter 11.  How much money is Lehman Brothers handing out?  Many of its assets are frozen.

I don't see anywhere he is talking about it occurring directly.  TARP allows banks to make loans.  That is the direct effect.  Obama talks about that throughout this speech.  The banks making the loans allows businesses to raise capital to hire more people, invest in inventory, etc.  The same applies to consumers getting money to buy products from banks.  Those are both secondary effect s.  But secondary effects are pretty damn important, and yes, Congress and the executive branch were worried about those effects.  I never heard Obama say TARP was going to knock on your door and hand you a loan.  That would be a direct effect.

Frankly I think you are just pissing and moaning about semantics here.  I mean that was a press conference, not exactly language codified in the United States Code which has legal force and effect.  Your entire point is pretty much irrelevant, as it is more based on your ignorance and misunderstanding of the English language than anything substantive.

Helping the economy was one of the goals of TARP.  Yes, I agree.  To acheive that goal, TARP was designed to keep the financial system from collapsing.  That is almost entirely what the legislative language in TARP addresses.

Just because we aren't seeing +6% quarterly GDP growth doesn't mean TARP didn't acheive its goals.  That is what YOU claim should have happened.  I don't recall anyone claiming that was going to happen.  I recall Obama telling people that the recession was going to be long and hard, but that we are going to get through it.

You make a lot of assumptions. Ones that of course can never be argued against because we can't go back in time and change things.

The OP's link is arguing against everything you state in here, and I think he argues a good point. The last 6 months seems to prove him right.

Keep talking though, someone might start thinking it's right.



Who said things were going to recover in 6 months?



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

@akuma: According to you the economy is already recovering (we're in Q3 2009 already).



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

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akuma587 said:
Who said things were going to recover in 6 months?

Not me, I was saying it's not going to recover for many years.

That chart a few pages back suggest that Obama thought it would, or at least employment would be effected by now.



NJ5 said:
@akuma: According to you the economy is already recovering (we're in Q3 2009 already).

This is kind of just semantics.  I would say we are on the road to recovery and that recovery is in sight.  Once we start seeing positive GDP growth, we will be "recovering."



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

akuma587 said:
NJ5 said:
@akuma: According to you the economy is already recovering (we're in Q3 2009 already).

This is kind of just semantics.  I would say we are on the road to recovery and that recovery is in sight.  Once we start seeing positive GDP growth, we will be "recovering."

But you said:

"There is a decent chance you will see positive GDP growth in Q3 2009.  I will be simply amazed if you don't see positive GDP growth in Q4 2009."

So OK, you didn't say that the economy is for sure recovering, but you see it as a good bet. In 6 months, the year will already be over, so you're confident that in no more than 6 months the economy will be recovering for sure.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

2010 as a whole will for sure see GDP growth in the US, u dont doubt that NJ5, do u?



Slimebeast said:
2010 as a whole will for sure see GDP growth in the US, u dont doubt that NJ5, do u?

If GDP grows in 2010 it won't be by much I think. I'd say it's more likely that it goes down.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957