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Forums - General - 467,000 more jobs lost in June.

TheRealMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
NJ5 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
NJ5 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Employment is one of the lagging indicators of a downturn because companies don't start hiring until they see things start to turn around

Your last statement is true, but it doesn't mean employment is a strictly lagging indicator. In a consumer-led recession, the turn around can't start before unemployment starts letting up. Simple logic there I think.

I really want to know how this recession can end while people are losing their jobs and lowering consumption, with their homes getting foreclosed pushing them even farther into poverty.

IMO there's just one way for the recession to end, and that's for more people and companies to get out of debt (either by paying their debt or defaulting on it, the latter of which will cause the banks and the government to lose a lot money due to bailouts).

 


Well a recssion as termed by NBER involves many factors, not just employment:

"a significant decline in [the] economic activity spread across the country, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP growth, real personal income, employment (non-farm payrolls), industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

So it could end even if people are losing their jobs still.

I agree, but with unemployment so high that has to have an impact on future consumption, wouldn't you agree?

We have literally millions of people going out of work, losing their homes (or having cheaper homes), paying higher interest rates on mortgages and credit cards. Unemployment further pushes this vicious circle, resulting in low sales for retail, manufacturers, who then have to lay off more people...

With consumers accounting for 70% of the US economy I would be very surprised if the recession could end when consumers are constantly getting poorer.

 

Well I think this winter will be a good barometer of how much longer this recession will last, if things uptick enough, we could see an end to the recession by early next year.  If comsumers are still lethargic this holidy it'll be a sign that it'll be a while yet.

 

If the government had done the right thing, this would already be over (the downturn that is).

 

Unemployment is going to hit some maximum. Let's say that number is 18%. If the government had not bailed anyone out, we would have hit that number very fast. Once all the busneses that suck fail, like AIG, GM, some banks, Chrysler, etc..., what's left will do nothing but get stronger. You no longer have trillions of government dollars feeding dying companies. You now have the good ones left to thrive. You also have openings for new ones.

 

All companies that survived would be on an upswing at the moment. The way it is now, every employee is worried about getting laid off. Who is going to make a big purchase (like a car or house) if they are scared of possibly losing there job?

 

If we had gotten to 18% in a month and not 3 years, then we would have 3 years of additional purchasing by the employees and companies who were growing over those three years.

 

If the government had done the right thing and used the systems we have in place for such issues (the bankruptcy courts), we would be in a much better place.

 

The way it's going to be now, is we are going to have obligated our self to trillions of dollars in bailout for future generations to pay, years of damaged revenue, and a corporate base where the best companies were not allowed to thrive, weakening our ability to thrive.

 

All the time, the criminals in office who orchestrated this are telling us they are saving us. It's sickening.

The problem with your idea is that letting banks and companies fail could create not only widespread panic among consumers and investors, it could also create a chain reaction where failures occur like falling dominoes, especially where comapnies are related to one another through contracts or supply chains or debt.  You'd probably also see most of the surviving banks and companies start retrenching heavily worried that they could also get swept away.

In a lot of ways your idea was what they did at the beginning of the great depression, letting banks fail, didn't work out so well, as it spread even to healthy banks.

Where were your complaints about the debt when Reagan and the Bushs were pushing it into record territories?  Funny how you start complaining now about the debt.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi said:

The problem with your idea is that letting banks and companies fail could create not only widespread panic among consumers and investors, it could also create a chain reaction where failures occur like falling dominoes, especially where comapnies are related to one another through contracts or supply chains or debt.  You'd probably also see most of the surviving banks and companies start retrenching heavily worried that they could also get swept away.

In a lot of ways your idea was what they did at the beginning of the great depression, letting banks fail, didn't work out so well, as it spread even to healthy banks.

Where were your complaints about the debt when Reagan and the Bushs were pushing it into record territories?  Funny how you start complaining now about the debt.

Where was I when the Bush was pushing us to recored debt? Screaming at the top of my lungs along side you. You just didn't notice. Now that I have the same issue with the guy you like, you notice.

And no, it would not cause wide spread panic. If you look at the markets (an indicator of consumer confidence), the markets went up every time something bad happened, like when GM filed, and when Chrysler filed.

A good analogy would be this:

let's say you have 30 people held hostage by a man with a gun, with 6 bullets.

How long they are held hostage represents how long we are going to be in recession. The longer the man stands there with a fully loaded gun, the longer none of them will move. As soon as he has shot 6 people, what do you think the other 24 will do?

 

Once they know the problem is over, they will not cower in the corner crying, they will take action, and take down the guy.

 

Put a little more trust in people. The faster we can hit the floor of this thing, the better. The worse it gets, the more resolve Americans have.

 

The worst thing we can do for the recession, is making it last longer. There is no advantage to make it fall slower.

 

And the "dominos" you talk about falling, are falling anyway.



midwinter said:

Didn't Obama promise us he was going to fix this if he was elected?

I think his program to bump our taxes and national debt through the roof should fix all of this. Don't worry - we will all be ok....

How long do you think it will take to erase 8 years of foolishness, stubborness and the like? He's been in office for barely 6 months. It will get worst before it gets better.



highwaystar101 said:
TheRealMafoo said:

Sucks. Anyone want to see if they can spin that into something good. I sure can't.

Spin into something good ey? er, At least all those workers now get to spend more valuable time at home with their loved ones.

But seriously, the USA is in recession and I, like everyone else, expected large job cuts and I'm sure many more cuts are yet to come. It's not fun for anyone, but hopefully recovery will begin soon.

Highway, excellent post. +1.



madskillz said:
midwinter said:

Didn't Obama promise us he was going to fix this if he was elected?

I think his program to bump our taxes and national debt through the roof should fix all of this. Don't worry - we will all be ok....

How long do you think it will take to erase 8 years of foolishness, stubborness and the like? He's been in office for barely 6 months. It will get worst before it gets better.

Again, why do I have to explain civics.

Congress runs the economy, not the President. 8 years bla bla bla is just party bullshit. Dems have been running the economy for 3 years, and done nothing worth a shit yet (just like the republicans before them).

The worst part about it, is I know you know this Madskillz, so stop being a puppet for the party.



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TheRealMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

The problem with your idea is that letting banks and companies fail could create not only widespread panic among consumers and investors, it could also create a chain reaction where failures occur like falling dominoes, especially where comapnies are related to one another through contracts or supply chains or debt.  You'd probably also see most of the surviving banks and companies start retrenching heavily worried that they could also get swept away.

In a lot of ways your idea was what they did at the beginning of the great depression, letting banks fail, didn't work out so well, as it spread even to healthy banks.

Where were your complaints about the debt when Reagan and the Bushs were pushing it into record territories?  Funny how you start complaining now about the debt.

Where was I when the Bush was pushing us to recored debt? Screaming at the top of my lungs along side you. You just didn't notice. Now that I have the same issue with the guy you like, you notice.

And no, it would not cause wide spread panic. If you look at the markets (an indicator of consumer confidence), the markets went up every time something bad happened, like when GM filed, and when Chrysler filed.

A good analogy would be this:

let's say you have 30 people held hostage by a man with a gun, with 6 bullets.

How long they are held hostage represents how long we are going to be in recession. The longer the man stands there with a fully loaded gun, the longer none of them will move. As soon as he has shot 6 people, what do you think the other 24 will do?

 

Once they know the problem is over, they will not cower in the corner crying, they will take action, and take down the guy.

 

Put a little more trust in people. The faster we can hit the floor of this thing, the better. The worse it gets, the more resolve Americans have.

 

The worst thing we can do for the recession, is making it last longer. There is no advantage to make it fall slower.

 

And the "dominos" you talk about falling, are falling anyway.


Perhaps you missed those thousands of points the market lost last fall when this was starting, and how the market plummeted when the bailout was first time defeated in the house?  You say there was no panic, the only reason we are stabilized at the moment is because of the government intervention, when the market was panicking last fall and winter.

Actually things aren't falling that much at the moment, what we have a concern of right now is things remaining stagnant where they are right now, 10-12% unemployment is expected, but if there hadn't been any intervention by the government last fall and winter, we could be looking at unemployment much higher than what is happening.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Is that WW or US?



 

   PROUD MEMBER OF THE PLAYSTATION 3 : RPG FAN CLUB

 

Avinash_Tyagi said:
TheRealMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

The problem with your idea is that letting banks and companies fail could create not only widespread panic among consumers and investors, it could also create a chain reaction where failures occur like falling dominoes, especially where comapnies are related to one another through contracts or supply chains or debt.  You'd probably also see most of the surviving banks and companies start retrenching heavily worried that they could also get swept away.

In a lot of ways your idea was what they did at the beginning of the great depression, letting banks fail, didn't work out so well, as it spread even to healthy banks.

Where were your complaints about the debt when Reagan and the Bushs were pushing it into record territories?  Funny how you start complaining now about the debt.

Where was I when the Bush was pushing us to recored debt? Screaming at the top of my lungs along side you. You just didn't notice. Now that I have the same issue with the guy you like, you notice.

And no, it would not cause wide spread panic. If you look at the markets (an indicator of consumer confidence), the markets went up every time something bad happened, like when GM filed, and when Chrysler filed.

A good analogy would be this:

let's say you have 30 people held hostage by a man with a gun, with 6 bullets.

How long they are held hostage represents how long we are going to be in recession. The longer the man stands there with a fully loaded gun, the longer none of them will move. As soon as he has shot 6 people, what do you think the other 24 will do?

 

Once they know the problem is over, they will not cower in the corner crying, they will take action, and take down the guy.

 

Put a little more trust in people. The faster we can hit the floor of this thing, the better. The worse it gets, the more resolve Americans have.

 

The worst thing we can do for the recession, is making it last longer. There is no advantage to make it fall slower.

 

And the "dominos" you talk about falling, are falling anyway.


Perhaps you missed those thousands of points the market lost last fall when this was starting, and how the market plummeted when the bailout was first time defeated in the house?  You say there was no panic, the only reason we are stabilized at the moment is because of the government intervention, when the market was panicking last fall and winter.

Actually things aren't falling that much at the moment, what we have a concern of right now is things remaining stagnant where they are right now, 10-12% unemployment is expected, but if there hadn't been any intervention by the government last fall and winter, we could be looking at unemployment much higher than what is happening.

i am sorry, but you are 100%, without question, wrong. Wrong wrong wrong.

What would have happened, is millions of people would have lost there job, thousands of busnesses would have gone out of business.

 

But when the dust had settled, people would have started finding jobs, businesses would be growing, the one that should of failed due to poor management, would be gone, and room would open for good businesses to succeed.

 

The government fixed nothing. 100% nothing. They have caused far more problems in this recession then they have fixed. All at the cost of thousands of dollars per American.

 

Quite honestly, they should all be thrown in jail. Just about every politician for the last 30 years. and especially the ones for the last 10.

 

To say any of them are doing a good job, is to be blind by party politics.

 

I say that, because if McCain had won, he would have done the same thing Obama has done, and you would be bitching about it along side me, and not arguing with me about it's utter lack of effectiveness.



TheRealMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
TheRealMafoo said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:

The problem with your idea is that letting banks and companies fail could create not only widespread panic among consumers and investors, it could also create a chain reaction where failures occur like falling dominoes, especially where comapnies are related to one another through contracts or supply chains or debt.  You'd probably also see most of the surviving banks and companies start retrenching heavily worried that they could also get swept away.

In a lot of ways your idea was what they did at the beginning of the great depression, letting banks fail, didn't work out so well, as it spread even to healthy banks.

Where were your complaints about the debt when Reagan and the Bushs were pushing it into record territories?  Funny how you start complaining now about the debt.

Where was I when the Bush was pushing us to recored debt? Screaming at the top of my lungs along side you. You just didn't notice. Now that I have the same issue with the guy you like, you notice.

And no, it would not cause wide spread panic. If you look at the markets (an indicator of consumer confidence), the markets went up every time something bad happened, like when GM filed, and when Chrysler filed.

A good analogy would be this:

let's say you have 30 people held hostage by a man with a gun, with 6 bullets.

How long they are held hostage represents how long we are going to be in recession. The longer the man stands there with a fully loaded gun, the longer none of them will move. As soon as he has shot 6 people, what do you think the other 24 will do?

 

Once they know the problem is over, they will not cower in the corner crying, they will take action, and take down the guy.

 

Put a little more trust in people. The faster we can hit the floor of this thing, the better. The worse it gets, the more resolve Americans have.

 

The worst thing we can do for the recession, is making it last longer. There is no advantage to make it fall slower.

 

And the "dominos" you talk about falling, are falling anyway.


Perhaps you missed those thousands of points the market lost last fall when this was starting, and how the market plummeted when the bailout was first time defeated in the house?  You say there was no panic, the only reason we are stabilized at the moment is because of the government intervention, when the market was panicking last fall and winter.

Actually things aren't falling that much at the moment, what we have a concern of right now is things remaining stagnant where they are right now, 10-12% unemployment is expected, but if there hadn't been any intervention by the government last fall and winter, we could be looking at unemployment much higher than what is happening.

i am sorry, but you are 100%, without question, wrong. Wrong wrong wrong.

What would have happened, is millions of people would have lost there job, thousands of busnesses would have gone out of business.

 

But when the dust had settled, people would have started finding jobs, businesses would be growing, the one that should of failed due to poor management, would be gone, and room would open for good businesses to succeed.

 

The government fixed nothing. 100% nothing. They have caused far more problems in this recession then they have fixed. All at the cost of thousands of dollars per American.

 

Quite honestly, they should all be thrown in jail. Just about every politician for the last 30 years. and especially the ones for the last 10.

 

To say any of them are doing a good job, is to be blind by party politics.

 

I say that, because if McCain had won, he would have done the same thing Obama has done, and you would be bitching about it along side me, and not arguing with me about it's utter lack of effectiveness.


Dude I have history to point to you to show you that is not how it would work, we would have had years even decades of stagnation and people being displaced looking for what little work still existed.  The reason is that the amount of consumption in this country would have fallen so far that there would be little room for the surviving companies to expand and hire and more people would be out of work driving consumption even lower at alarming speeds and we'd be in a deflationary cycle with prices falling rapidly.

Sorry but that is wrong, the government stabilized the economy, what we have now is bad recession rather than another Depression.

No if McCain had won he would have probably been very Laissez-faire about the whole thing, and we'd be careening towards another Depression, I would be complaining about that



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi said:


Dude I have history to point to you to show you that is not how it would work...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1921_recession

"The recession of 1921-1923 proved to be the sharpest economic downturn since the emergence of the business cycle in the early 19th century, but it also was one of the shortest reversals. The recession was over in one year.

Economist Thomas Woods argues that President Harding's laissez faire economic policies during the 1920/21 recession, combined with a coordinated aggressive policy of rapid government downsizing, had a direct influence (mostly through intentional non-influence) on the rapid and widespread private-sector recovery. Because there existed mass distortions in private markets due to government economic influence related to World War I, an equally mass "correction" to the distortions needed to occur as quickly as possible to realign investment and consumption with the new peace-time, government-free economic environment.

Woods argues that the massive 1921 recession and subsequent rapid recovery is an episode in the history of capitalism and economics that is woefully understudied. He believes it to be a watershed case proving that free markets adjust prices and supplies much more efficiently than any government coordinated action, and that Keynesian philosophy ignores the '21 episode because it suggests government intervention is not required in such "crises." The 1921 recession/recovery could have been a model for recovery from the "Great Depression" one decade later, which instead focused on massive government spending, trade tariffs, and price floors - rather than letting the markets quickly and efficiently adjust."