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Forums - General - 467,000 more jobs lost in June.

Didn't Obama promise us he was going to fix this if he was elected?

I think his program to bump our taxes and national debt through the roof should fix all of this. Don't worry - we will all be ok....



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NJ5 said:
TheRealMafoo said:

Not sure I agree. The cause of this recession is to many houses. Everyone gambled that the wealth of there homes would go up indefinitely. As soon as builders caught up, house values dropped, and everything else is now based off that.

The single biggest component in American personal wealth is home ownership. Inventory of homes is to high, so that value is not near what it used to be.

This is to blame for everything we have seen going forward, so it is an inventory problem.

The inventory based recessions are when manufacturing has to be lowered for a while. In those recessions, factories are idled while inventories are consumed, then when they resume production people are hired again so unemployment gets fixed at the end and after the recession.

You are right, people are poorer due to the value of their homes, but also due to having too much debt. As credit gets harder to come by, and interest rates go up people have less and less disposable income to spend. This is a big part of what's causing the recession, the fact that the consumers are getting hit directly (and consumers are like 70% of the US economy or so I've read many times).

As people get unemployed, that causes more home foreclosures and defaults on debt, which makes people poorer. This causes even lower consumer activity, making the recession bigger. It's a very bad vicious circle which won't get fixed without unemployment levelling off first.

 

A lot of construction workers are out of work.  Even the ones in demolition.



midwinter said:

Didn't Obama promise us he was going to fix this if he was elected?

I think his program to bump our taxes and national debt through the roof should fix all of this. Don't worry - we will all be ok....

Obama is doing about the same things as Japan tried to fix their banks (i.e. shifting bad debt from banks to the government instead of defaulting on it or paying it down).

It didn't work for Japan and it probably won't work for USA either.

Read this article if you want to know more:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/business/worldbusiness/12iht-yen.html

 



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Kasz216 said:

A lot of construction workers are out of work.  Even the ones in demolition.

Yeah, so it's true that there's also an inventory recession here... but there's much more than that too, with almost all the economic sectors getting affected right from the start.

 



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One of the things that I always find disapointing about announcements like these is that they point out how poorly statistics like the Unemployment rate are measured ...

The economy lost 465,000 jobs but the unemployment rate only increased by 0.1% even though 465,000 jobs represents (far) more than 0.1% of the workforce. What this means is that we have had a remarkably large number of people (300,000+) leave the workforce because the economy is so bad they have no expectations of finding a job.

This is (obviously) done on purpose, which is why they don't publish the participation rate alongside the unemployment rate; and if they included information like the percentage of the workforce who were working part time, the mean and median wage for employees, and employee confidence in their company the economic picture would be far bleaker.



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lets also not overlook the number of "underemployed," that is to say, those who aren't technically laid off, but are either forced to work less hours (4 days a week instead of 5, or etc. etc.), or are forced to work at a job that they are totally overqualified for; i.e. a laid off teacher working at mcdonalds or something.

I read that the "underemployed" numbers are as high as 12%, if not more.



HappySqurriel said:

One of the things that I always find disapointing about announcements like these is that they point out how poorly statistics like the Unemployment rate are measured ...

The economy lost 465,000 jobs but the unemployment rate only increased by 0.1% even though 465,000 jobs represents (far) more than 0.1% of the workforce. What this means is that we have had a remarkably large number of people (300,000+) leave the workforce because the economy is so bad they have no expectations of finding a job.

This is (obviously) done on purpose, which is why they don't publish the participation rate alongside the unemployment rate; and if they included information like the percentage of the workforce who were working part time, the mean and median wage for employees, and employee confidence in their company the economic picture would be far bleaker.

The unemployment figure which the mainstream media usually reports is U3 unemployment. There's also U4, U5 and U6, which use broader definitions of unemployment.

You can find the more detailed data here:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

Depending on the definitions, unemployment is between 9.5% and 16.8%. The last figure is U6, which is described as:

"

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

"

 



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TheRealMafoo said:

Sucks. Anyone want to see if they can spin that into something good. I sure can't.

Spin into something good ey? er, At least all those workers now get to spend more valuable time at home with their loved ones.

But seriously, the USA is in recession and I, like everyone else, expected large job cuts and I'm sure many more cuts are yet to come. It's not fun for anyone, but hopefully recovery will begin soon.



Employment is one of the lagging indicators of a downturn because companies don't start hiring until they see things start to turn around



 

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Avinash_Tyagi said:
Employment is one of the lagging indicators of a downturn because companies don't start hiring until they see things start to turn around

Your last statement is true, but it doesn't mean employment is a strictly lagging indicator. In a consumer-led recession, the turn around can't start before unemployment starts letting up. Simple logic there I think.

I really want to know how this recession can end while people are losing their jobs and lowering consumption, with their homes getting foreclosed pushing them even farther into poverty.

IMO there's just one way for the recession to end, and that's for more people and companies to get out of debt (either by paying their debt or defaulting on it, the latter of which will cause the banks and the government to lose a lot money due to bailouts).

 



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