http://www.edge-online.com/news/analyst-xbox-360-to-slip-to-third-place-by-2015
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects Xbox 360’s home console market share to fade to third by 2015, largely due to a lack of penetration in Japan.
“We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console’s low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years,” he said, noting that he still expects the company to introduce a high definition Wii.
“We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015,” he added. “Although Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan.”
By the end of 2009 he expects Wii to have captured a 49 per cent share of the US and European markets, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29 per cent and the PS3 at 22 per cent.
Two years he sees Wii market share having slipped marginally to 48 per cent, while PS3 and Xbox 360 each hold a 26 per cent share.
