they will have 90%+ of the third party game shared.

first party not so much.

and it got ahead by 3 million with a price cut.

guess what a ps3 price cut can do =).

couple with GT5 (europe) and FF13 (japan) + Versus + FF14.

also a slim version coming to the end of year. (something microsoft can't do as good as sony make things smaller).

i think it will fall short by 3 million but may pass it after ps4 it's out.

We're almost at the half way point for the generation, as the markets reach saturation it becomes very difficult for an exclusive or even a bunch of exclusives to move units. There are only 111,000,0000 households in America and what 10M? In Canada so you could say by the end of this year about half of all houses have consoles. Selling a console to the next half is going to get progressively more difficult. Its going to be very difficult for any console to change the market dynamics which we see today in a declining market.

I worked out the price elasticity of the PS3 6 months prior and 6 months after the price cut of $200 Euro and $100-$150-$200 depending you you ask in America and the elasticity was -1.08 or so. Beyond this even a $100 price cut across the board with all else remaining equal will still have the PS3 under 2008 weekly sales as the long term weekly effects are probably only going to be something like 20-25% greater sales above what we see now and hardware revenues for the PS3 will remain stagnant.

I can agree with Squilliam post. I mean seriously with the economy as it is today more consumers will be inclined to go with the cheaper console that is avaiable on market. The Wii at $250 seems to be the standard mass market price that consumers are willing to cough up. Microsoft made its way to the mass market price range recently with the Xbox 360 Arcade at $200.

If Sony was to ever make a comeback it would have to be a cheaper PS3 SKU which I highly doubt would happen considering what the PS3 is packaging.

Games can help but some much in the society/economy we live in today so clearly Patcher prediction is rather absurd and false and is clearly only to hype the online forums.

Of course PS3 will outsell the 360 eventually. Bluray baby. People fed up with DVD and system failure with do all the work for Sony. The PS3 is millions ahead of where the 360 was last year and has been the same price since the end of 2007 and currently sells on par with the 360 at double the price in a deep recession. PS3 get's a pricecut it'll still be the most expensive console on the market. 360 gets a pricecut and It'll be cheaper then most handhelds.

What's all this about digital downloads and VOD? As if that hasn't been availible for a decade already. Now it's going to be a game changer because it's on XBL? k.

That clearly is what was all that was needed in your post. Anymore than that was not even necessary.

Of course the Xbox 360 will eventually stay ahead of the PS3. Digital downloads baby. People are fed up with optical media and marketing failures. The Xbox 360 is millions ahead of the PS3 and it was still $350 this time last year and outselling the PS3 of this year. When the Xbox 360 gets another price cut it will tap even more markets and sell like crazy as the Arcade units the most popular SKU during the holidays.

And now Pachter is suddenly considered smart again. Wasn't there JUST a thread about people calling him an idiot?

Actually after the E3 conference he said that 'Microsoft finally gets it'. I suspect this article was based off things he said a while ago, its not his most recent prediction anyway.

Fact is his predictions are fake and crazy. Does he actually get paid to do this...I going to do some research on this guy, I mean if there is any.

goodluck to that...