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Forums - Sales - Pachter: Xbox 360 will fall to 3rd place this gen

welshbloke said:
Jon Snow would need the woulds biggest swingometer for this to happen. It relies on Microsoft effectively giving up and letting Sony take massive monthly sales.

2011 is just not long enough it is even unlikely if we take it all the way to 2013 but then that is a pointless excercise and nobody knows what will happen in that timeframe. For all we know we could be going bonkers for MS Fit on the Natal or playing with a Wand with a ball on top.

Jon Snow from Song of Ice and Fire?

 



 



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CatFangs806 said:
If Microsoft makes the 360 last until 2015, won't the 360 have outdated graphics by then, or will NATAL enhance it?

not so much as people may think..the current game Engine's that power the current xbox360 game's that the current ps3 game engines that power the PS3 will be the same game engine's that power the next systems game's at least for a good portion off the start of the new system cycle. were getting to the start of diminishing returns for development studio's in graphic's quality without spending more aqn more time on tweaking and time invested into a project. the hardware may be advanced over the current systems , but it's the time table that the developer's will have to get their project's done in time. to creat a new engine from scratch it may take 2-4 years or more.

 

the graphic's that you see now will get better over time but not as much of a leap as they could , there just will not be enough time, so with that in mind the graphic's leap over the current systems vs the next gen system's will not be as great right from the start more so since these systems will have more in common with the previous systems vs' their previous system's. the performance of both the PS3 and xbox360 will be high enough that even with the next generation system's better spec's the better system spec's will not have their advantages taken until well into In my Opinion at least past the 1st year or even well into the second. just like this generation but unlike this the next system's will not have as much of a leap in hard ware as these were with the ps3 over the spec's of the ps2 and the xbox360 over the first xbox

The problem lies mainly in mult-core design and the fact that even with the upgrade in GPU's and CPU's the same core technology will be so close in alignment that the result's atleast from the start will be near the same. for at least as i said prob. for the fist couple of years.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Ahh seriously.

What will push 360 sales ? its already got price on its side and that clearly is not enough since its barely out selling a product twice its price and the wii is kicking its ass rather badly while in the same price segment.

natal really lol, any one really think that. If that can work so can sony waggle bs so they kinda cancel each other out..

Even as price comes down for both, right now 360 has a $200 advantage as that shrinks so will 360 small sales advantage.

360 was always headed for third place a early launch lead just fooled many of you. This is no different that the hddvd Bluray thing, all of you were just so blind to the reality of it all. All of you were so sure Br would lose, maybe many of you harbor to much resentment towards Sony to ever have a honest opinion on things.



twingo said:
Ahh seriously.

What will push 360 sales ? its already got price on its side and that clearly is not enough since its barely out selling a product twice its price and the wii is kicking its ass rather badly while in the same price segment.

natal really lol, any one really think that. If that can work so can sony waggle bs so they kinda cancel each other out..

Even as price comes down for both, right now 360 has a $200 advantage as that shrinks so will 360 small sales advantage.

360 was always headed for third place a early launch lead just fooled many of you. This is no different that the hddvd Bluray thing, all of you were just so blind to the reality of it all. All of you were so sure Br would lose, maybe many of you harbor to much resentment towards Sony to ever have a honest opinion on things.

Thats kinda funny because every poist I have ever seen from you has spewed hate towards MS. Sorry bro, but I just can't take you seriously anymore, although to do give me a good laugh every now and again. If you really want to argue price, there is no doubt in my mind MS will cut the price again if Sony does. MS wants to put Sony in their place this gen, and I think they will do it. Also, you say price doesn't matter, well why is the Wii beating the PS3 so handsomely? My guess is...price!



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kowenicki said:

jon snow, bbc political pundit

there he is from 22 secs in...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPdyfK9FbIM


Loved the montage and Jon's swingometer was rather big at the end still not big enough for Patcher to be proved true.



W.L.B.B. Member, Portsmouth Branch.

(Welsh(Folk) Living Beyond Borders)

Winner of the 2010 VGC Holiday sales prediction thread with an Average 1.6% accuracy rating. I am indeed awesome.

Kinect as seen by PS3 owners ...if you can pick at it   ...post it ... Did I mention the 360 was black and Shinny? Keeping Sigs obscure since 2007, Passed by the Sig police 5July10.
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kowenicki said:
@twingo

yeah... we heard you the first time...

so when will the PS3 overtake the 360 then?

In 2008. Oh wait....



GOTY Contestants this year: Dead Space 2, Dark Souls, Tales of Graces f. Everything else can suck it.

twingo said:
Ahh seriously.

What will push 360 sales ? its already got price on its side and that clearly is not enough since its barely out selling a product twice its price and the wii is kicking its ass rather badly while in the same price segment.

natal really lol, any one really think that. If that can work so can sony waggle bs so they kinda cancel each other out..

Even as price comes down for both, right now 360 has a $200 advantage as that shrinks so will 360 small sales advantage.

360 was always headed for third place a early launch lead just fooled many of you. This is no different that the hddvd Bluray thing, all of you were just so blind to the reality of it all. All of you were so sure Br would lose, maybe many of you harbor to much resentment towards Sony to ever have a honest opinion on things.

What will slow down 360 sales?

Natal and Sonys mOtion control are not on the same level...your just being biased becuase your a PS3 fanboy...The BrickBall game owns anything Eyetoy has shown..and the it's just a Prototype game...

360 was always heade for 3rd place?

We were fooled?

this is the same as a format war?

we were blind?

BR won? or Samsung and Toshiba lost?

We habor resentment towards Sony?

And your opinions about the 360 are clean and unbiased?

 

Welcome to 2009...6 months gone and Xbox 360 is the only console to have growth in the market share.....with the games lineup coming 2009 you expect the 360 to lose steam?

With the PS3 having a hard time in Japan Sony is poised to take number 2?

With the Ps3 losing to 360 you expect the Wii sales not to affect it?

When will Multiplat games do better on Ps3..After the Pricecut?

When will Multiplat devs have a better time on pS3?

When will Middleware engines be effective on the PS3?

When CryEngine 3 rolls out?

Is not coming to 360 as well?

When will Valve shut their dirty mouth about how "obscure" the PS3 harware is?

When Will Activision take back what they said?

Will Square Enix stop supporting the Xbox 360?

When will Ubisoft Make exclusive PS3 games?

Can you say that the Ps3 will have a better holiday 2009 than the Xbox 360?

When will the PSN be good?

When will Sony first party game achive benchmark sales?

Will Halo lose selling power?

What if GT5 does not surpass Forza 3 in terms of graphics?

Do you expect the PS3 slim to not have Storage limitations?

Do you really belive the Ps3 slim will have both forms of network adaptors?

Does the Cell really make up for the Ps3 weak GPU?

Is the Xenos not a key factor in keeping the Xbox 360 with and edge?

 

 



 



So much hate in that last post... Sony must have killed your dog, zizzla. Or you bought the HDDVD cup handler. I feel bad for you, I hope you will still play the dozens of great Sony first / second party games.

I agree with twingo and pachter, PS3 will eventually dominate 360 in installed base, I keep Q4 2010 as the predicted date like in the other thread, but it could be a bit sooner or a bit later...

Outselling 44k per week the 360 is not that much, PS3 was constantly doing more before the september price cut.



Tony_Parker said:
So much hate in that last post... Sony must have killed your dog, zizzla. Or you bought the HDDVD cup handler. I feel bad for you, I hope you will still play the dozens of great Sony first / second party games.

I agree with twingo and pachter, PS3 will eventually dominate 360 in installed base, I keep Q4 2010 as the predicted date like in the other thread, but it could be a bit sooner or a bit later...

Outselling 44k per week the 360 is not that much, PS3 was constantly doing more before the september price cut.

I wont play them...Unless my sister does Buy a PS3 like she said....And even then I still will cherrypick through them....

I'm sure your hopes and dreams are that Pathcer is right....Try answering my question and I might take you seriosly



 



@Zizzla : Ok here we go...

What will slow down 360 sales?
- The lack of exclusives, it will slow down because people will more and more prefer PS3, especially if it's not 400$ anymore.

Natal and Sonys mOtion control are not on the same level...your just being biased becuase your a PS3 fanboy...The BrickBall game owns anything Eyetoy has shown..and the it's just a Prototype game...
- No. Natal is mostly an Eyetoy ripoff, so welcome in 2004 MS. Sony on the other hand has a better motion control since it tracks 1:1, doesn't lag and, it's most important, it has buttons, hence it can be used in real games, where Natal will always lack precision. Multiple analysts and websites said the same thing as I do.

360 was always heade for 3rd place?
- well, yes, until MS chooses to buy studios and bring something to the industry, like Sony does. You can't compete with 3 studios when your competitor has 20. But MS will still be satisfied with the results and the profit.

We were fooled?
- only if you bought the HDDVD drive, otherwise 360 is a nice console, just with a bit less exclusives.

this is the same as a format war?
- like when blueray won and killed MS HDDVD ? not exactly, not sure what you mean. It's more like when PS2 killed the Xbox 1.

we were blind?
- no, both consoles are good. PS3 is a bit better but a bit more expansive. Having both is optimal.

BR won? or Samsung and Toshiba lost?
- Both. BR will be more than 50 % of the market soon according to multiple analysts. So BR definitely won, but BR doom threads and posts are still fun now that the HDDVD drive became a cup handler.

We habor resentment towards Sony?
- Well, I think most of you are young and it was the cool thing to do to hate on Sony. Some of you just happen to prefer MS 360 too (if you're a shooter fan, it's certainly understandable). Some of you just don't have the money to buy a PS3. Hate and love are very close feelings. Indifference is the opposite of love. Ever seen a Wii hate thread ? No, because nobody cares. People care a lot about Sony.

And your opinions about the 360 are clean and unbiased?
- Definitely not. Still, I have a 360.


Welcome to 2009...6 months gone and Xbox 360 is the only console to have growth in the market share.....with the games lineup coming 2009 you expect the 360 to lose steam?
- It's no wonder considering it's the only one that cut price in half. Very funny and delusional question, my friend. I expect the 360 to lose steam like it did before the price cut and like it does right now if you look closely (week after week, PS3/360 weekly sales gap tend to decrease). The few 2009 exclusives that will (finally, there have been nothing since last november as exclusive on 360) come will certainly boost 360 sales, but they will still lag behind PS3 sales when the price cut and GT5 arrives (before the end of 2009)

With the PS3 having a hard time in Japan Sony is poised to take number 2?
- PS3 doesn't have at all a hard time in Japan. Actually in one less year than 360, it sold 3 times more if I remember correctly (3 million vs 1 million). So yeah, Japan will definitely help, but Europe is helping too.

With the Ps3 losing to 360 you expect the Wii sales not to affect it?
- ? The PS3 is winning against 360 since it sold more on the same time frame from launch. If you talk about total installed base, PS2 wins by far. Wii is second.

When will Multiplat games do better on Ps3..After the Pricecut?
- They already do, like RE5 or SF4. Of course, after the price cut, it will be even worse. Shooters will still probably sell more on 360.

When will Multiplat devs have a better time on pS3?
- Some already have (Oblivion, GTA4 - no popin, a dozen others, don't remember the names...), and of course the more the PS3 rises, the more multiplats will come better on PS3 than on 360. Mostly, I have both consoles and I can safely tell you thi secret : multiplats are nearly identical on both platform. You know why ? Because the devs wanted them to be identical.

When will Middleware engines be effective on the PS3?
- The next versions will be better optimized for the PS3. Crysis engine runs the same on PS3 and 360 too.
Unreal engine is already looking very outdated anyway compared to exclusives like Killzone 2 or Uncharted.

When CryEngine 3 rolls out?
- See above

Is not coming to 360 as well?
- See above

When will Valve shut their dirty mouth about how "obscure" the PS3 harware is?
- When they start making more money on PS3 than on 360, like EA, Konami and Ubi declared they did.

When Will Activision take back what they said?
- When HDDVD will be the successful format.

Will Square Enix stop supporting the Xbox 360?
- They already stopped by publishing FF13 VS and FF14 exclusively on PS3. Rockstar did too with Agent (only on PS3).

When will Ubisoft Make exclusive PS3 games?
- There are far better publishers than Ubi, but they'll probably do when MS stops distributing paychecks.

Can you say that the Ps3 will have a better holiday 2009 than the Xbox 360?
- yeah, definitely. Gran turismo 5 + uncharted 2 + MAG + price cut kills the Xbox lineup with one hand

When will the PSN be good?
- it's already on par with live. It's more stable, has dedicated servers, has less down time. It lacks subscription fee though. Just kidding. It lacks cross game chat, but I wouldn't use that anyway. Last thing I want is 12 year old racist American kids crying in my ears when I play.

When will Sony first party game achive benchmark sales?
- Many of them are million sellers, some reached 2 or 3 million like gT5P, uncharted, motorstorm, that's quite good. God of war 3 will sell even more of course. Everything comes in time. By the way, the first party GT series sold dozens of million copies, which dwarf both Halo and Gears series. Is it ok as a benchmark ?

Will Halo lose selling power?
- If MS continues to milk the franchise, definitely. It's already happening by the way. Hola Wars didn't sell that much.

What if GT5 does not surpass Forza 3 in terms of graphics?
- Well, that wouldn't change anything since GT would still be the only real simulator, the one real pilots use for training, especially considering you can't even connect a G25 to the 360. It's really unlikely though considering GT5P already has a better lighting than Forza and its plastic cars. Environments are better on Forza 3 than on GT5P though. We'll see on GT5. Plus, GT5 will always lack Forza signature rewind arcade feature. A feature that clearly improves realism.

Do you expect the PS3 slim to not have Storage limitations?
- Every PS3 has no storage limitation since you can change nearly for free the hard drive to a standard 1 Tb. I know what you feel if you're used to 20 Gb on the 360, but that's the way it is on PS3. Hey, you didn't know ? Maybe I convinced you to buy one...

Do you really belive the Ps3 slim will have both forms of network adaptors?
- I really don't care about that one, Ethernet will do fine anyway.

Does the Cell really make up for the Ps3 weak GPU?
- Of course it does. Everything can be precalculated on the different SPUs, look at KZ2 and try to find something similar on 360 (which has a slightly better GPU but a much weaker CPU). On the long run, you've got more impressive games, like KZ2 or uncharted 2 are showing right now. But if you ask me : 'wasn't it better, had Sony just gone with the MS standard PC formula ?' My answer would be 'maybe' cause I'm not sure the money they used wasn't better used elsewhere, plus the 360 would already be dead (but competition is good). The jury is still out on this one.

Is the Xenos not a key factor in keeping the Xbox 360 with and edge?
- I think it's overrated. I'm not expert on that question though.



My questions now :

- When will there be on 360 a game with graphics on par with Killzone 2 or uncharted 2 ? Will it happen one day ?

- What do you use your HDDVD drive for ?

- Do you think the 360 is the new Wii with Natal ? I heard it was just a Eyetoy ripoff, is it true ?

- How many AAA exclusives were released on 360 this year until now ? I heard it was zero. PS3 had 4.

- How do you compete in content with 3 studios when your competitor has 20+ ?

- If people like the 360 so much, why does the PS3 sell the same every week while costing twice as much ?

- Which game on 360 is in the same genre and with the same quality as uncharted ?

- Which game on 360 is in the same genre and with the same quality as Flower ?

- Which game on 360 is in the same genre and with the same quality as Demon Souls or Valkyria Chronicles ?

- Which game on 360 is in the same genre and with the same quality as LittleBigPlanet ?


Good night my friend, see you soon... on the PSN ?