Hmm... price drop, eh? Not this year for the PS3, or at least, not on the $400 model. I can see the $500 models getting marked down to $450 as the pack-in games come down in price. I could also see the 80 GB being discontinued silently, but left at $400 until it sells out. (I'd not be surprised if Sony's already stopped producing these.) Once the current 80 GB systems are gone, PS3 Slim will also launch, probably in time for the holidays, upgrading to a 160 GB HDD, but staying at $400. At this point, then the model that went to $450 will join the Slim at the $400 price, to try to clear out what remains of the old models. No game will be packed in with the slim to encourage people to help clear out the older model with a "free" game. I'm guessing that these changes are where Sony expects to see their 30% sales increases- a slim and clearancing of the $500 models. The price cut won't be until April to go sub-$400. Whether it will be $350, $300, or even $330 ($329.99) will depend on the current market position and competitor pricing. It will be no more than Wii + $100, though.
And since others seem to be intent on predicting, the PSP Go. Sony knows it's priced at a premium, and I don't expect to see that premium stay for long. It will see a price drop at the start of the next financial year (April 2010), to either $200 or $220 ($219.99), to spur additional sales. $200 will be done if sales are excellent or poor. Excellent sales will lead to a price drop on the 3000 model to $150, as they try to phase it out. Poor sales will mean they want to get what they can back on it. $220 will indicate mediocre sales. It'll cause a moderate boost, and let the difference between the PSP models cost less, to try to push adoption a bit more.
The 360 is another can of worms, and depends on what card Microsoft wants to play. If they're playing profitability, the PS3 will get the first price cut. Because of the Arcade model being near the 0-line (no profit or loss), I don't think that they will insist on it staying half the price of the PS3. A $50-70 price cut will probably just move prices to $180/$280/$350. It won't cause MS to hemmorage, but will take some of the sting out of the Sony price cut. If Sony goes all the way to $300, MS will be a little more aggressive, probably going $170/$250/$300. I do not see lower than $170 for now, as it allows them to try to swing against the portable market also, matching the DSi and 3000. The wrench here, though, is if they drop the Pro model. Should that happen, Sony's price cut is irrelevant, and the 360 will go $200/$300. MS will not let the difference between the arcade and the next model up be more than $100.
Conversely, MS could play the kill card. (This, of course, is not a guarantee.) They will cut the price first, and cut it rather hard. Lowest I could see would be $150/$230/$300 (or $150/$250 with removal of pro). Arcade will be situated to go against the PS2 at this point, and will ensure that the 50% price ratio stays. The second level will be meant to target the Wii. Market the features over the Wii for the same (or lower) price. A 3rd tier will remain, at worst, equal to Sony's entry level. This move will cost MS money, but it will force Sony's hand, and may get Nintendo's hand also. Sony must choose whether to play the price cut, and lose money sooner than expected (and thus more than expected), or to hold, and risk further losing market share. Depending on the success of marketting, Nintendo may choose to release the new colors sooner than planned, do a token price cut, or potentially see further erosion in their current sales.
There just are too many variables for a PS3 price cut, but I believe that if Sony has the choice, they will hold on as long as they can without one. It's the sensitivity of the position of others in the market that may force something unexpected.
