So if there are three 'big' announcements and Kaz Hirai said he wouldn't drop the price until some good games come out then....
1. $400 ps3
2. GTA4 before xmas
3. MGS4 before xmas
Now, with #2 I think 360s version will be on same day release, if it happened.
or.
1. $400 ps3
2. MGS4 before xmas
3. HOME before xmas (as this is something they have more control over)
| Sqrl said: Actually I think El Duderino hit on something interesting here. A while back didn't Kaz Hirai say that he wouldn't be lowering the PS3 price point until he felt he had a group of good games to support it so he could maximize the sales boosts garnered. Well then again they denied the price shuffle in July up to the last minute so that may not be reliable. I don't know, you decide what to make of it, just pointing it out. |
Good point.
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A price cut would fit well.
| Sqrl said: Actually I think El Duderino hit on something interesting here. A while back didn't Kaz Hirai say that he wouldn't be lowering the PS3 price point until he felt he had a group of good games to support it so he could maximize the sales boosts garnered. Well then again they denied the price shuffle in July up to the last minute so that may not be reliable. I don't know, you decide what to make of it, just pointing it out. |
If I were to make that call (and I´m happy I dont) I´d wait till spring, Sony already has put a great emphasis on the spring lineup, sure missing out on hollyday sales is bad, but I think it would be worse to spread important momentum boosters over a to large timeframe. A price-boost this year and a game-boost in spring won´t give the system the spectacular boost it needs that both would.
It's pretty obvious that they desperately need a price cut. But I don't see how they can afford one.
As I see it, Sony is pretty much screwed. If they keep selling at a loss forever they'll need an absurd attach rate just to break even. But if they wait for their costs to fall a bit before cutting the price their market share will dwindle to nothing.
I think that Sony expected there to be a lot more early adopters for the PS3. If there had been, they could have increased production for the expensive components, the Cell and Bluray drive, and reduced their unit costs. This would in turn allow price cuts which would allow more sales. It's a nice enough plan if you can pull it off, but if it fails, it's going to fail catastrophically.
GTA IV in October? No.
Now back on topic: If you're wondering why I put the "burning money" picture above, here's the reason:
Sony's game lineup only starts getting significantly better next year. Their total sales will increase due to this price drop, but they could also increase by almost the same amount if they did the price drop next year. Furthermore, if they did that, they would get $100 more per console sold in the holiday period...
But on the other hand, I understand why they're doing it: the doom and gloom is setting in on the PS3 business, and they were sure to miss their sales forecast if they didn't do this price cut...
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@soriku
I think they are market leader in terms of video games soriku.. the playstation brand has more than 60% of the market.
| theshoe23 said: Its all the same El Dude, the PS3 doesn't have great games because it was lagging in releasing dev kits, it has a massive price, and people are waiting to buy it. Yes, most people I know want one, even without a great games line up. Also I'm not calling anyone stupid but if anyone thinks that Microsoft is in any kind of place to match a $399 PS3 (Yes the HD is smaller than the Elite, but it has BR, wireless, etc) they are crazy. |
First off, anecdotal evidence never proves a good point, I know nobody who has or whats a PS3 but I don´t make predictions based on that. I think Microsoft can counter any pricecut Sony can offer, the PS3 has the better brand name but the 360 has the better lineup, so right now I don´t see a pricecut giving the PS3 the long term boost many think it will, only a real mass market price and great games will do that.
rocketpig said:
Exactly. MS was able to hold off for nearly two years before dropping the 360 price. Given the loss they initially took on the unit, it was necessary to have that time to get costs under control to ever hope for profitability this generation. If Sony drops the price to $400, they'll lose heaps of money for the entire generation. It forces their hand to drop the price to $300 next year, $250 the following, etc. etc. They will never be able to get their manufacturing costs under their price point until the PS3 is nearing end of life, ensuring a big loss for the Playstation brand over the next five years. With that said, will they do it? I don't think so but they could be desperate enough to try which plays into MS's hands quite nicely. All MS has to do is agree to take one more hit in short-term profitability to guarantee Sony a third place finish this generation. They definitely have deep enough pockets to wage this kind of war and it will be interesting to see if they go for it. A $200/279/349 price structure on the 360, combined with Halo 3, BioShock, and Mass Effect, might even rival Wii sales this holiday season. In any case, it will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next two months. |
This isn't that different from what happened last gen...
a) MS launched the XBOX - priced way over competition
b) Dropped price a little
c) Sony dropped PS2 price
d) XBOX sales plummetted after a few months due to uncompetitive price
e) MS dropped price of XBOX significantly until it was price competitive
f) Nintendo (with the GC having the lowest price point) screamed.
...
re: shareholders - Sony just sold off part of their company. WHY would they do this, unless they needed the money? This allows them to still post a profit (when including the sale) and have cash to burn in the meantime.
MS might tinker with the 360 price - but not by much. Another $50 price cut is all they would do - if anything at all.
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| NJ5 said: GTA IV in October? No. Now back on topic: If you're wondering why I put the "burning money" picture above, here's the reason: Sony's game lineup only starts getting significantly better next year. Their total sales will increase due to this price drop, but they could also increase by almost the same amount if they did the price drop next year. Furthermore, if they did that, they would get $100 more per console sold in the holiday period... But on the other hand, I understand why they're doing it: the doom and gloom is setting in on the PS3 business, and they were sure to miss their sales forecast if they didn't do this price cut... |
More hardware sold = more software sold and more BRs sold, thats how they make money.
PS3s line up is significantly better late this year then ever before, especially in the USA.
Ratchet - always sold best here.
UT3 - is the shooter to light a fire under PS3s ass.
Haze - has plenty potential.
Uncharted - from possibly Sony best dev.
CoD4 - the biggest FPS this year othter then Halo3
They have a great line up of what sales best in North America and most of it is exclusive.
Some predictions for the Oct 12th announcement:
- PS3 price cut
- PS3 / PSP bundle
- GT mobile released this Xmas, connectivity with PS3 version
- one big PS3 game released for Xmas (MGS most likely?), or something else from Sony
- PS2 price cut
- big PS2 controller/game announcement, some new EyeToy style controller?
...
GT mobile I'm almost certain of.
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