It's not ignorance. It's confidence in my fairly logical prediction. You use those 3 examples, lets look at them:

Wii Sports has been bundled with the majority of Wiis made, so it is hardly a basis to compare to. Wii Play, as well, was bundled with a peripheral. I, and most others I feel, who loved Wii Sports, thought that Wii Play was largely useless. If it was stand alone, it would have sold nowhere near what it did. (And even so, it's still not at even 24m, let alone 30.) As for Mario Kart Wii, it's Nintendo's biggest Wii game by a HUGE margin, and it's standing at 16m sales after 61 weeks. You think it will double in sales?

WSR would not only have to be huge, but it would need to have a 25% attach rate(which is unlikely) assuming the Wii goes on to sell 70M more units(which is possible).

Will the game do fantastic and move millions and millions of units? Yes. But anyone basing the anticipated sales on how many Wii Sports units have been moved will be sorely disappointed.

@Jereel Hunter: Wii Sports Resort is also bundled with a peripheral, didn't you know?

MK:Wii is still consistently selling 100k a week. It might not sell exactly 30 million, but it will be damn close. It might also greatly surpass that number, depending on the lifetime of the Wii.

^Oh well, so his "not a chance" refers to it selling 30+ million units, not about hardware pushing.

But still, Wii Fit is lucky to have near 40% adoption rate. I'm willing to guess no more than 25% for WSR.

A peripheral that most Wii owners don't know is coming(we know about it, but the 'blue ocean' people don't keep up to date on coming video game peripherals), and is released 3 years into the Wii's life.

As for MK:Wii selling 100k a week - that's great. And it's great. But it's selling 100k a week 61 weeks after release - are you expecting it to maintain this sales rate for almost 3 more years? That's unrealistic. It won't hit 30m.

New Sports.

New bundles.

Heaps of marketing.

Improved controller, new gameplay experiences.

...

The Wii hasn't stopped selling - WS:R just gives Nintendo to crank up the marketing machine, and get sales back into top gear.

...

Its really all about marketing. Because WS:R will bring in so much revenue, marketing budget will be huge - which means putting the Wii back into the limelight.

Ummm, there's this thing called marketing and advertisements, I'm sure WSR and WM+ will have plenty.

MK:Wii doesn't need 3 years to get to 30 million. Don't forget sales are much higher during the holiday periods. 2 years is more like it, even if it needs 3 it might well get there (the Wii will continue to appeal to the mass market for many years I think).