Ail said:
trestres said:
We will have to wait and see before saying Wii sales will get boosted, so far it looks like it's on a downards trend and there's nothing significantly big that could help sales go up again until WSR which comes in late July, so until August sales could be down a lot. Probably the last 5 months of the year will be better, but the following two months could end up being abysmal in YoY comparisons.
Wii
January 2009 679,200
February 2009 753,000
March 2009 601,000
April 2009 340,000
May 2009 289,500
Wii
January 2008 274,000
February 2008 432,000
March 2008 721,000
April 2008 714,200
May 2008 675,100
June 2008 666,700
July 2008 555,000
August 2008 453,000
September 2008 667,000
October 2008 803,000
November 2008 2,040,000
December 2008 2,150,000
Total 10,151,000
YoY Jan +405K units
YoY Feb +321K units
YoY Mar -120K units
YoY Apr -374K units
YoY May -386K units
2009 YTD 2663K units
2008 YTD 2817K units
YoY Total -154K units
The trend looks to be a downards one and June could be the worst month of the year so far. June and July will no doubt be down from 2008, but August could be up once again. Then September and October could be also down, but depends on the release date of Wii Fit+. There's, unfortunately, nothing big besides Wii Fit+ until October/November, so sales could be down by 1 million or more until the Holidays. Then it's not very likely for the Wii to outperform November/December 2008. I expect Wii to end at 2 million less than 2008, at around 8 million for the year.
|
Honestly August and December seem like the only 2 months in the remainder of Nintendo's fiscal year where you can expect/hope that YoY sales will be up. So I don't see how you can expect the Wii to match 2008 numbers.
July will be down less, maybe 100k.
Hard to tell past that but I really don't see Wii Sport Resorts boosting the Wii sales by 100% for several months ( which is what is needed to get back to 2008 level).
June will be down by another 300k probably ( doesn't seem like EA Sport Active or Punch Out had a crazy effect on Wii hardware sales).
So by the end of the first half of the year the Wii will be down 450k.
A price cut might help for sure, but seeing Nintendo financials prevision it's doubtfull in 2009 and I'm not sure the Wii is actually viewed as an expensive purchase right now so hard to say how much it would boost sales, definitly not 100%...
PS : The situation in the fiscal year(April 2009-March 2010) is even worse.
So far in NA alone sales are down 750k for 2 months. Worldwide they are down 1.7 millions ( VGchartz has 1.6 millions and I added 100k for the difference with NPD in May).
In June sales should be down another 500k worldwide ( Wii sold 1.5 million units in June 2008) to bring the YoY gap around 2.2 millions...
|
