Bitmap Frogs said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
In fact, while I believe MS wishes to prevent competitor console makers from becoming strong enough to seize the living room computing, I don't believe by any means it plans to destroy the console market, it's an impossible task, like you wrote, and the best MS can do is live with it, and if possible, try to profit from it and have some synergies with some of its other products. This said, the danger that still Sony, or, currently more likely, Nintendo tries to do what MS fears is still strong, and the only way MS could prevent it is to make XB720 become the first console next gen and make it the best choice of media hub for people not wanting to get stressed by a PC. The danger this gen is still low, PS3 has too little RAM for the task and it's the weakest contender, Wii is the strongest but it has even less RAM, no disk storage and no DVD playback. To cut it short, this gen Windows was pardoned by PS3 weakness and more generally by HW trade-offs, but next gen each console will be able to become a media centre PC even without their respective manufacturers actively promoting this function, so the stronger XB720 will be, the less sales "stolen" from Windows will go to MS competitors and the more will obviously go anyway to MS.
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1. You are operating under the misconception consoles could become PC substitutes. That's a mistake, because precisely the allure of consoles is simplicity - turning a console into a viable PC alternative for the most common tasks means it would necessarily become more complex and thus experience market rejection. See Wii vs. PS360 for more on that. I can't understand how you mention Wii's hardware limitations as the reason why it isn't becoming an expanded multimedia hub; have you ever listened to Iwata? They do not want the Wii to become a PC like device because they want to sell tons of those little white boxes.
2. Even if you are just talking about "media hub", computers are safe - because they are more than a media hub. Just as the loss of gaming would make a negligible impact on the PC platform.
3. Microsoft ain't on the console market because they were afraid of consoles overthrowing windows-equipped PCs, they are there because they can leverage their know-how in customer-oriented platforms and services to deliver a compelling consumer services platform on top of another synergies like a common DirectX architecture which protects Microsoft's interests on that front. Internet-enabled customer offerings/services are a huge market and everyone who can is trying to get a piece of the pie. Even Nokia is trying and they already make billions on the hardware alone. As internet availability and bandwith grows there are a crapload of goods and services that can be delivered through connected devices and Microsoft's move has more to do with having a foothold on such a lucrative market than protecting what does not need to be protected since it hasn't been threatened at all.
4. To think PS3's weakness has "spared" Windows is ludicrous. Linux on PS3 is just a gimmick and never was anything but marketing fodder for Sony.
5. Additionally, you are contradicting yourself there, the stronger XB720 will be, the more sales are gonna be stolen from Windows because Microsoft unlike Nintendo does want the console to become a service-hub as the revenue streams are very very strong and offset the loss of marketshare. Heck, both the PS3 and 360 are already complex media-hubs and it isn't denting Windows at all.
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I numbered your points to answer them
1. Not an office PC substitute, but if they are fitted with the HW necessary to the purpose, they could become media centre PC, and maybe appeal more people that for this kind of use desire a thing more immediate than a PC. About Nintendo: first, they don't want the Wii becomes a complicated object, this makes perfectly sense, but in its current configuration Wii couldn't do it anyway. In future, a Wii2 with the necessary HW features could offer media centre PC functions without becoming a PC, but obviously Nintendo won't let MS know until it's time to prepare the launch. And nothing prevents a media centre consoles from offering some office PC features realized in a way suitable to home users and without becoming a dreadfully complicated PC.
2. Office PC's are quite safe, but MS would like for itself also the "media hub" market. And such a market made independent from MS SW and formats would weaken Windows-Office dominance, people would start getting used to something different. A moderately successful console can reach in 3 years as many people as Linux reached in more than 15 years.
3. This is all true, but you perfectly know that MS likes to combine with profit the consolidation of its power whenever it has the opportunity.
4. I didn't mention Linux on PS3, but even a perfect distro wouldn't save PS3 from its lack of RAM, that would make some typical Windows PC tasks very uncomfortable. PS3 "weakness" saving Windows is both weakness in sales and in HW specs, so Windows is safe from it due to at least two independent but concurring reasons.
5. Maybe I wrote a phrase not clear enough, but I'm not contradicting myself: I wrote that XB720 being successful means that what's stolen from Windows goes to MS anyway, so it's good for MS (and even better, as MS sells online services and gets royalties on games, as you rightly stressed). What's not good for MS are users stolen from Windows and going to MS' competitors. But as you write, right now consoles aren't stealing from Windows yet, but amongst a lot of concurring reason for this, there are two facts, current gen consoles haven't the HW necessary to replace PC's and moreover their producers gave them up until now an even large, but tightly focused set of functions.
But the undeniable fact that right now even the most powerful consoles fall short of becoming a viable media centre PC substitute, doesn't mean that this possibility is ruled out for future consoles. We simply can't have rock-steady certainties about these issues, as Nintendo showed us that the unpredictable can happen.