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Forums - Nintendo - I see the Wii going one of two ways

HappySqurriel said:
NintendoTogepi said:
HappySqurriel said:

Honestly, the worst case for the Wii is:

  1. It passes the Gamecube's lifetime sales (21 Million) by March 31st 2008
  2. By September 31st 2008 it passes the N64's sales ( 30.75 Million)
  3. By September 31st 2009 it passes the SNES (49.08 Million).
  4. By March 31st 2009 it passes the NES (61.79 Million).
  5. Between March 31st 2009 and September 31st 2011 (the last 18 months before Nintendo releases the follow up system) the Wii sells 21 Million systems (Roughly 80 Million)
  6. Over the next 24 months the Wii sales drops off and it falls (just) short of 100 Million consoles sold

 


I'm sorry but

That's totally ridocolous. That sounds like the BEST case for the Wii.

If you think that would be the WORST case, would do you think the BEST case is?


Nope ...

The best case scenerio is that the Western World (as a whole) goes into a recession starting late 2007/early 2008 because of the fall out from the Realestate bubble and Sub-Prime mortgage fallout. Higher debt loads, hard to access credit, high unemployment, high inflation and low consumer confidence greatly reduces people's ability and willingness to make big-ticket luxury purchases. The Wii's lower price and high public interest insulate Nintendo from these troubles while Microsoft and Sony see much lower sales.

Third parties react to this by increasing market share for Nintendo by increasing their support ...

September 31st 2009 Nintendo has sold an (impressive) 80 Million consoles as compared to 20 Million XBox 360s and 16 Million PS3s. This represents Microsoft and Sony hitting price levels that most consumers would be willing to pay for their consoles ($200-$300) and the economy has recovered. Third party support is at an all time high for the Wii and an all time Low for the PS3 and XBox 360; the $150 Wii has far more good games and is finally starting to really become very interesting to 'non-gamers'.

March 31st 2010 Nintend has broken all records and smashed expectations for the holday period and Microsoft and Sony didn't come close to their expectations. Third parties begin abandoning the PS3 and XBox 360 and those that haven't are strugling financially.

Nintendo extends the life of the Wii to 6 years before replacing it due to excellent sales and its userbase is 160 Million users when the Wii-2 (or whatever) is released; over the next 4 years it sells an additional 20 Million consoles before Nintendo stops production.


 Y'know, I think if there's a recession, it's gonna hurt the Wii more the nhelp it.

 250 is still a lot of money.



Top 3 favorite games: Super Mario Galaxy, The Sims 2 (PC), The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

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NintendoTogepi said:
 

Y'know, I think if there's a recession, it's gonna hurt the Wii more the nhelp it.

250 is still a lot of money.


 What makes you think the wii is going to stay at $250 once production is able to meet/exceed demand? 



NintendoTogepi said:
 

 Y'know, I think if there's a recession, it's gonna hurt the Wii more the nhelp it.

 250 is still a lot of money.


If you look at the history of the gaming market, videogames as a whole have done quite well through recessions because they are a form of inexpensive entertainment; people's entertainment needs do not go down with the economy and they typically divert money from expensive activities (Skiing, Golf, Eating Out, and Going to movies) to less expensive activities. For a similar cost to just going Skiing for one day a family of four can (easily) buy a Wii; if you include gas, lunch at the lodge and dinner after they can easily buy a Wii, 3 Wiimotes, 3 Nunchucks, and a couple of games.

 



HappySqurriel said:
NintendoTogepi said:
 

Y'know, I think if there's a recession, it's gonna hurt the Wii more the nhelp it.

250 is still a lot of money.


If you look at the history of the gaming market, videogames as a whole have done quite well through recessions because they are a form of inexpensive entertainment; people's entertainment needs do not go down with the economy and they typically divert money from expensive activities (Skiing, Golf, Eating Out, and Going to movies) to less expensive activities. For a similar cost to just going Skiing for one day a family of four can (easily) buy a Wii; if you include gas, lunch at the lodge and dinner after they can easily buy a Wii, 3 Wiimotes, 3 Nunchucks, and a couple of games.

 

Skiing isn't a good example...

 

I think if there WAS a recession, the PS2 and DS Lite would benefit the most from it, $130 is really cheap and the games are super cheap too.

 



Top 3 favorite games: Super Mario Galaxy, The Sims 2 (PC), The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker