1. It continues on at the same level, selling tons and tons and becoming the best selling console of the generation and rivalling the NES in sales

2. The "fad" dies down, sales decrease as most people who have one want one and the system basically sells around the same as the GameCube give or take 5 million and is last in the generation 

I honestly don't know. The sales are slowing down and I'm thinking that 2 might actually happen...

 P.S. I myself love the Wii. It's my favorite home console ever. I have so much fun with all of the games I've been playing on it. (A lot of those games are GCN titles I never managed to play and VC games that I've been playing for the first time, although I have immensely enjoyed several Wii games)

Good for you - just don't let sales numbers or overall sales ranking dampen your spirit if things take a turn for the worse.

These are machines that are designed to hopefully deliver fun - as long as that end of the bargain is kept, you can keep enjoying your console of choice no matter what it is.

I vote #1. I haven't heard of a console having this much success and then disappearing before, and don't think the Wii will be the first, especially when it has games like Smash Bros. coming out this Christmas, and then Wii Fit to conquer the casual market all over again. The thing about the casual market is... it's INFINITE. So Nintendo can't lose. Selling a game to 5% of casuals is more profitable than selling a game to 95% of the self-proclaimed "hardcore gamers." Shazam!

 well sai. its a shame everyone couldnt understand that. games= fun

It's only dropped in Japan but still at least x2 the sales of PS3 and Xbox 360 isn't even in the running there.

Super Smash Brotherts Brawl will sell very well in USA, 65% of the 6.5 million sold of Super Smash Brother Melee on Gamecube were sold in the USA so it will shift consoles and Super Mario Galaxy will be a similar story, both being released in time for Christmas.

I think rivalling the NES in sales is a damn good goal for the Wii, and I think it's one the Wii will accomplish. As far as sales are concerned, it went down like:

NES>SNES>N64>GC

The Wii will definitely break 60 million, shutting up the haters. When the NES came out there was no real market outside of the U.S. and Japan, and we've seen what the Wii can do to Europe and Australia.

Now the real crazy goals are fighting off the DS and the PS2! Totally possible, but we'll need a couple more Christmases to see if it's at all plausible.

The N64 actually sold faster than the SNES but since it was released mid-gen its numbers were lower (it still sold 30 million compared to 80 million by the PS1 which had a big head start).

 Lol.

I cannot see what all the fuss is about with the japanese numbers. The numbers show that wii is selling at around 2.5 to 1 against the PS3 which itself is gone down over recent weeks. I only concern would have been if the wii had no real killer software out in the next 3 months especially in Japan, but this is not the case at all. But this is not the case, In my estimation nintendo have timed it perfectly with regards to maintaining momentum for the console. They are coming out of the wii sports phase and entering the mario galaxy, wii fit and ssbb phase over the next couple of months. I think as a strategy is very good. Maintain cycles of momentum and enthusiasm and hence keep the console in the public conciousness over an extended period of months and years.

The problem for the PS3 is that it has gotten more bad than good press especially outside of the inner core gaming community. And will hope to start building momentum some time next year but this is a dangerous strategy.

360 in terms of planning for momentum is somewhere in between. They will use the halo 3 experience for all its worth, but in terms of maintaining its positive run, next year again is an important one for the 360.