HappySqurriel said:
Another consideration is how late in the generation these products will be released ...
The earliest I could see either company releasing their add-ons would be for the holiday season in 2010 (around 12 to 18 months from now) and while there will be a few third party efforts for these add-ons at launch and through out the first year, most publishers are going to take a wait and see approach about throwing support towards these systems. A large reason for this is simply a numbers game, where there are (roughly) 80 to 120 Million Wii owners who are buying several games per year, 80 to 100 HD console owners who are buying several games per year, and 0 Add-On owners with unknown purchase habits. If you assume a 12 to 18 month waiting period before dedicating much support to these Add-Ons, and 12 to 18 months before the high support translates into a steady stream of decent games, this works out to these Add-Ons getting this support in 2013 or 2014. If you consider what happens if new consoles or handhelds are released in 2010 through 2012 (taking away third party support and consumer interest), and potential delays pushing this hardware's release into 2011, it is entirely possible (and in my opinion likely) that these systems don't have the time to build consumer/developer support before their consoles are taken off of the market.
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Those durations sound way too long to me. We know that both Sony and MS have already sent devkits for developers to try out the new control technologies. Even if the tech changes slightly, if those controls come out in late 2010 there will have been about 14-16 months for developers to get to speed with them.
Consider something like SEGA's Virtual Tennis - or maybe it's EA's one, indulge me here - that is coming out in versions for 360/PS3 that use "traditional" controls, and in a Wii version that supports WM+. Doesn't it sound reasonable that after 15 months of devkits experimentation, if they publish a new tennis or golf game right after these products come out, they'll at least add the option to play with a Sony wand or your hand gesture in Natal's case?
Thus you could have optional, minor support since holidays 2010, and growing support with games more centered around them, especially first party titles, during 2011. Third party casual titles that are planned around start of 2011 can very well come out in the same year, or at least for the 2011 holidays.
That leaves for later the leveraging of these technologies in big projects, indeed. But I doubt those projects will be aimed at the market in which Sony and MS would like to enter and compete with the Wii.