Introducing the competitors!
The games are afoot! The first concerted response from both Microsoft and Sony to the phenom which is the Wii. Up until now, both HD makers have 'seemed' pretty content to leave Nintendo alone and to trade blows between themselves. For the last 2-3 years Microsoft has been slowly repositioning themselves to respond to the Wiis original concept with Natal whilst Sony has been positioning themselves to face off against the eventual Wii Motion+ upgrade and to draw the lines between the PS3 and the Wii. There is not direct competition between the two HD console makers here because they each hold different objectives. Sony wants to gain ground in the market space between the Wii and PS3 and fight on their terms with technology and Microsoft wants to step into the turf of the original concept of the Wii, the so called expanded market and fight on their terms with software.
In the red corner... Sony!
For Sony, they could not act easily without Nintendo casting the first stone. They could not compete on a level playing field with the PS3 against the original concept of the Wiimote, they would simply not have been able to compete on that battlefield so they didn't even try. Wii motion+ is a different story, by competing nearer to the core space they exist and by competing with technology they have a greater position of strength to fight from. However they cannot forge adoption of such technology alone amongst third party developers, they had to wait until Nintendo themselves brought the fight to them. So had Wii M+ not existed, its likely that Sony themselves would not and could not have released their mote concept so quickly. Support for third parties for the Wii M+ can easily be ported for the Sony mote, the technologies and concepts are so very similar.
In the green corner... Microsoft!
For Microsoft, Natal exists because the Wii exists. As a console company, they only exist at the high end of the console market to essentially block Sony from attacking their core business. As a company they exist at the mass market level, their main products in Windows and Office are designed to be adopted by the whole of the market. Natal has nothing to do with Wii motion + or Sony's; mote it is a combined software and hardware platform designed to attack the Wiis original core market. So whilst Sony and Nintendo are attempting to sort out their mote antics in the first place, Microsoft is challenging the very existance of the Wiimote or its derivatives. Natal is something that only a company like Microsoft can make, it essentially embeds years of research and development into alternative computer interface technologies from voice to motion and gesture control into the one product and leverages their excellent understanding of computer networking.
The western front in the war against improved waggle.
Sony and Nintendo can no longer be said to be aiming for different segments of the market. With such similar technologies they will be aiming for similar consumers. The methods they wage this war will be different but the results are the same. Nintendo will use their newly aquired pool of mercenary third party publishers to take the battle to Sony here, whilst Sony's standing army of first party talent and their own mercenaries to fight the battles. This is not an area where Nintendo will commit their first party talent to, they have a very profitable heartland they have carved out to exploit after all. This is a battle between two distinct belief systems and strategies, one trying to capture more of the market and the other thankful to fight a war in land it understands. Will Nintendo prevail, or will they find out that fighting a war in the east a wasted endeavour?
The crux of both their efforts are somewhere between what people would call the core market and the market which Nintendo initially targeted. Its for the hearts and wallets of the people whom for whatever reason are not drawn to either Nintendos efforts with the Wii or Sony's efforts with the PS3. Its an open battle, but not a fair fight. Nintendo has every ounce of momentum on their side here, so for the first time Sony will find out what it was like to try and gain traction against something like the PS2 last generation. However Sony is for the first time fighting a battle which they can win this generation. They have a strong first party, they have strong technology; so whilst they are an underdog they can win with enough luck and the right moves.
The eastern front, the fight for the very existance of waggle.
Microsoft had better be prepared for a fight. They are taking their fight into the very heart of Nintendo's stronghold, they are challenging the very existance of the Wiimote itself. The base technology which motion+ attaches to. From their comments at E3, Natal is designed to challenge the very need for the Wiimote to exist. Microsoft seems to believe that the Wiimote itself can be replicated, emulated and beaten by using the human body as the controller. Microsoft is going to use Natal in a fight against Wii Fit, Wii Sports, Wii Play, Mario Kart etc, the trump cards of Nintendos efforts.
Their pre-positioning moves have all been towards this goal, its a battle purely on the grounds of software. This isn't the Xbox 360 vs the Wii, the Xbox 360 will soon cease to exist. This is software vs software, interface vs interface. All their moves with regards to the Xbox 360 in direct downloads of games, movies and avatars have been in preparation for this fight. They have been designed to make the Xbox 360 invisible. Soon people will not even need to touch, see or interface physically with anything called Xbox 360, which is exactly how the Wii is designed to blend into a home unobtrusively. This is truely a battle of synchronous motivation, but not synchronous means and talents.
The battle lines are drawn, the obvious winner remains unobvious
Who would be foolish enough to assume that Nintendo is easily beat? The same type of fool which assumes them to be unbeatable. A fool who lucks out is not a fool you should listen to even if they are right once. At this point there are only possibilities, the future is not set. The status quo is no longer obvious, one cannot simply go on believing that things will progress the same as they have in the past as all three players are practicing a divergent strategy. Any assumptions that things will stay as they are are now definately false. The intricacies of the details are mostly irrelevant here, this is just an outline of how I see the changes coming in the future between Nintendo and Microsoft/Sonys divergent Wii responses.
Tease.
