Natal isn't going to be a gaming interface for this generation. Its too late, theres litterally no point in it as a games interface (yet) because that application at this time doesn't make any sense, that horse has litterally bolted and Nintendo has everytyhing locked up nice and tight. It will be a gaming application, but first its going to be something else. If you step back for a moment, and look at the E3 presentation from another angle it makes the purpose of Natal at this point quite clear. All the demos they did for Natal really can only be applied to two distinct fields really.

The things that were shown and the type of interface Natal is, really only suits children initially. Most adults would feel like fools if they used that interface, but for children they would be right at home. Now im not talking games here, at least not in the strict sense, im talking about educational software. Natals paint program, Milo demo with the ability to read paper into the program etc all really point down this road at least initially. Microsoft have been spending a lot of time working on education applications for their other interface, surface.

See, I doubt that Microsoft are stupid and that they lack the ability to plan ahead or find a niche in the market. In Natals case the Xbox 360 is a platform for something entirely different from gaming. Education and childrens software is a very lucrative market. People are willing to spend thousands on their childrens education when they are unwilling to spend even $200 on a games console. Its all about utility, people are simply more willing to pay money for something which is useful vs something which is a luxury. The estimates of Natals current costing at $200 reinforces this further.

 Im not saying that Natal is strictly an education interface, but that education software will likely be the keystone for them to break into the market. Microsoft needs a position of strength in the market to compete with Nintendo because at this point they are simply lacking the firepower. Any gaming use of Natal will build from the market base they build up within that niche, at least for the current generation of consoles. No console company can survive on the hardcore alone.

Lastly, don't take Natal at face value. Its unlikely you've seen the whole interface. The full picture likely involves some kind of true 3d interface, whether its from your TV or based on glasses that you wear. The killer application is tricking your eyes into thinking that instead of waving your hands in the air you're actually interfacing with something. Go back to the Burnout demo and imagine you were holding the steering wheel in your hand, or go back to the paint demo etc and imagine you were holding buckets of paint. Natal needs to be what it is for virtual reality and total immersion. However for games this application would be so far away that only Halo: Reach could possibly have enough clout to be the launch application for something like that and sustain the peripheral with the use of only a single game.

Unless M$ is going to subsidize development (a distinct possibility), then I doubt any 3rd party devs would use this.

But seriously, all this talk about something that is at least 1.5 years away is pretty pointless. We have no idea how this will work in the real world and probably won't for a long time.

Looks like you didn't read... I didn't mention 'games'. I mentioned something else.

You make some very interesting points. Do you think they will try to market these educational aspects through the 360 or are you expecting them to detach the hardware from the 360? It would take those kids shows where they ask you to point to things on screen or yell out answers to questions, aka Blues Clues and such, and actually allow them to interact with it. Very nice ideas there.

I agree the core gaming possibilities on this are a little slim it seems. I can think of several ideas, but none of which would really be anything more than a couple hours of fun every now and then.

I am really intrigued by the idea of controlling interfaces with this thing though. Scrolling through menus and such with just my hand waving in the air is interesting. That would need to pervade more than the 360 though as well. Get the hardware and software to work with more than the 360 would be needed to really get this thing to take off. Which is probably where MS is going with this.

EDIT: And that is a neat video.  Nice usage of the Surface stuff.

good idea perhaps they will use this for both reasons? It opens very real possibilities not only for education and things but also gaming.

First, everyone who knows anything about interaction technology already knows this is where its going. In the "future" everything will be interactive. Heck in 5-10 years you'll wear be able to see an overlay whenever you want detailing stuff about everything you see. The fact is SONY and alot of other companies already know this and have had research delving into this for years.

Second, thats great for them, but why should I care? This is about gaming, not educational tools for 1-4 year olds. The huge talk going on right now about the different motion control schemes isn't going to care about this.

Umm, where did I mention games?  I was pointing out that any kind of development (games or otherwise) would need to be subsidized by M$ or this thing will never even get off the ground.

Umm, where did I mention games?  I was pointing out that any kind of development (games or otherwise) would need to be subsidized by M$ or this thing will never even get off the ground.

Sorry I misunderstood you. In any case talking about something like this is probably more important than pretty much any individual game. This is about how you play and how you interact with all games.

First, everyone who knows anything about interaction technology already knows this is where its going. In the "future" everything will be interactive. Heck in 5-10 years you'll wear be able to see an overlay whenever you want detailing stuff about everything you see. The fact is SONY and alot of other companies already know this and have had research delving into this for years.

Second, thats great for them, but why should I care? This is about gaming, not educational tools for 1-4 year olds. The huge talk going on right now about the different motion control schemes isn't going to care about this.

Its not just about 1-4 year olds. Its a whole age group from about 5 till about 12-13 who could take advantage of the technology. Furthermore since this site deals with 'games' like Wii Fit all the time, its not even about games all the time anymore. Consoles are evolving beyond simple gaming devices. I haven't seen anything else really from other companies and their interface technologies, so forgive me for latching on to the one technology I know about.

You make some very interesting points. Do you think they will try to market these educational aspects through the 360 or are you expecting them to detach the hardware from the 360? It would take those kids shows where they ask you to point to things on screen or yell out answers to questions, aka Blues Clues and such, and actually allow them to interact with it. Very nice ideas there.

I agree the core gaming possibilities on this are a little slim it seems. I can think of several ideas, but none of which would really be anything more than a couple hours of fun every now and then.

I am really intrigued by the idea of controlling interfaces with this thing though. Scrolling through menus and such with just my hand waving in the air is interesting. That would need to pervade more than the 360 though as well. Get the hardware and software to work with more than the 360 would be needed to really get this thing to take off. Which is probably where MS is going with this.

Its a hard one to answer. Probably we'll see some sort of hydra like approach tackling different segements of the market at the same time. I can definately see them pushing to make the Xbox 360/Natal platform the standardised interface for the new interactive TVs. I've even seen a video with the new games on demand page loaded up running straight through a TV so perhaps that was an earlier model of this? (It was a BBC Click show with a gesture interface TV @ CES) Thats probably the smartest move since the TV manufacturers are desperate to differentiate themselves so they will likely have a demand and a budget for these types of interfaces for their TVs. If that happens then essentially it could make it the default interface solution here, which is probably what they are going for. Its pretty interesting that the Sky/Netflix deals are going on at the same time, I can see some real synergy happening with all three in different parts of the world.

He didn't mention games at all. It could be used for those screens (that you see in movies/shows) to click and drag stuff with your hands.