nightsurge said: Oh so they are virtual parties, not real parties. And you have internet in Antarctica?

 

no there real parties are a good way to get things heated up down here

MikeB said: IMO ignore the trolls and I think the above clearly demonstrates I am not a troll nor insane. The things I have written in the past here at VGChartz were not as bad as many would like other to believe.

Look at it this way Mike, you being dismissed by more and more folks here will leave you more time to get that physical therapy venture up and running better and faster.  So all is not lost.  Everyone agrees that in small smatterings some of what you write intially comes off as not so unreasonable.  But the more one reads carefully (and the more one is willing to investigate your quotes) the clearer it becomes.  Your positions under the weight of any decent scrutiny show your severe bias and the inability you have to have a fair and meaningful conversation with anyone.  Thats why you got perma banned at Neogaf, thats why you got temp banned at Amigaworld,. Etc, etc.  The mods here are obviously much more lenient than those other sites.  Which is why you have made this your primary troll nesting ground.

MikeB said: theRepublic said: MikeB said: @ saicho Can't you quote me instead of this in your sig? MikeB predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 15 million units for the next 8 years. The exact quote from that thread would be: "I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average. So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. " Note the PS3 sold about 10 million last fiscal year and Sony expects to sell around 13 million this fiscal year, if they think this is due to the launch of a potential PSThree later this fiscal year then their expectations seem to be perfectly in line with my personal expectations. He is actually quoting me from that thread and I got it right.  Here is all of what you said. "I anticipate around 10 million sales per year on average, until the release of a "PSThree", then I expect the PS3 to sell around 15 million on average. So 2007 + 2008, about 20 million, I anticipate a slimline PS3 to launch somewhere in 2009. By the end of 2012 about 80 million sales. I do expect the PS3 to stay commercially available for much longer though, so by the end of 2016 about 140 million (triple the amount of 360s I anticipate for the long run). Of course there are endless yet unknown factors. But I certainly expect the PS3 to go well beyond 100 million for the long run." That thread was at the start of 2009.  You said, "by the end of 2016 about 140 million".  So, from the start of 2009 to the end of 2016 is approx eight years. 140 million - 20 million already sold = 120 million to go 120 million / 8 years = 15 million per year. It needs to average that for about more 7 more years after this fiscal year to *perfectly* deliver on my expectations, if Sony is spot on like they were for this fiscal year. But I said "about", so give or take a few millions. About 22.7 million PS3s have been sold by the end of March 2009 (FY 2009). Sony expects about 13 million more to be sold by the end of fiscal year 2010. That would make ~35.7 million.

Just to put things in perspective (data from VGC)

PS2
Weeks (Year)	Units
1-52 (1)	7,022,345
53-104 (2)	17,164,253
105-156 (3)	21,110,884
157-208 (4)	18,292,000
209-260 (5)	16,055,077
261-312 (6)	15,917,035
313-364 (7)	11,824,136

Average = 15,340,961

You are predicting the PS3 to do something during its later years that the PS2 did in its prime.  I don't believe that is going to happen.

@ nightsurge

The PS1 launched at the end of 1994, the PS3 launched at the end of 2006.

Taking equal timeframes the PS3 sold 22.7 million units by March 2009.
The PS1 sold 13.5 million units by March 1997.

MikeB said: @ nightsurge Equal time frames would be from 1995 to 1997 and 2006 to 2008. The PS1 launched IN JAPAN ONLY at the end of 1994, end of 1995 WORLDWIDE, the PS3 launched WORLDWIDE at the end of 2006. Taking equal timeframes FOR WORLDWIDE RELEASES the PS3 sold 22.7 million units by March 2009. The PS1 sold 30.8 million units by March 1998 (taking out the Japanese only year early launch numbers).

Uh, no.... did you even look at the data you so kindly provided?  You are trying to include the Japan only numbers and one full year of worldwide numbers for PS1 versus the 2 years of world wide numbers (minus 6 months of Europe) for PS3.

If you compare their worldwide launches, or anything even remotely reasonable (as johnsobas said, anything non-crazzyman), the PS3 is roughly 4-5 million behind the PS1 when aligned at BEST, and at worst the PS3 can be said to be behind by 8 million if I use your methods.

Surely everyone else see's what he is trying to do here and how he is giving this misinformation?  Common MikeB.

nightsurge said: MikeB said: @ nightsurge Equal time frames would be from 1995 to 1997 and 2006 to 2008. The PS1 launched at the end of 1994, the PS3 launched at the end of 2006. Taking equal timeframes the PS3 sold 22.7 million units by March 2009. The PS1 sold 13.5 million units by March 1997. Uh, no.... did you even look at the data you so kindly provided?  You are trying to include the Japan only numbers and one full year of worldwide numbers for PS1 versus the 2 years of world wide numbers (minus 6 months of Europe). If you compare their worldwide launches, or anything even remotely reasonable (as johnsobas said, anything non-crazzyman), the PS3 is roughly 4-5 million behind the PS1 when aligned at BEST, and at worst the PS3 can be said to be behind by 8 million.

I have taken that into account, that's why I stated "about". I didn't say there weren't factors involved.

The PS1 was a normal specced low priced console and had some time to build up a nice launch library for its US and European launch. The opposite is true with regard to the PS3.

I have always said that IMO the PS3 was a far ahead of its time console. The advantage of this being exclusives like Uncharted 2 being so impressive technically, the disadvantage being immature firmware and a launch library which by far did not tap into the system's true potential. This is the same as I stated around the PS3's launch regarding the state of its firmware and 1 and half years before the PS3 launched with regarding my expectations of launch titles.

Let's assume, if I were a blind Sony fanboy (however note I never owned a PS2). Would I have pointed out the latter two issues?

However by looking at the technology and the state of how legacy software was being written, I expected this beforehand.

MikeB said: nightsurge said: MikeB said: @ nightsurge Equal time frames would be from 1995 to 1997 and 2006 to 2008. The PS1 launched at the end of 1994, the PS3 launched at the end of 2006. Taking equal timeframes the PS3 sold 22.7 million units by March 2009. The PS1 sold 13.5 million units by March 1997. Uh, no.... did you even look at the data you so kindly provided?  You are trying to include the Japan only numbers and one full year of worldwide numbers for PS1 versus the 2 years of world wide numbers (minus 6 months of Europe). If you compare their worldwide launches, or anything even remotely reasonable (as johnsobas said, anything non-crazzyman), the PS3 is roughly 4-5 million behind the PS1 when aligned at BEST, and at worst the PS3 can be said to be behind by 8 million.   I have taken that into account, that's why I stated "about". I didn't say there weren't factors involved. The PS1 was a normal specced low priced console and had some time to build up a launch library for its US and European launch. The opposite counts with regard to the PS3. I have always said that IMO the PS3 was a far ahead of its time console. The advantage of this being exclusives like Uncharted 2 being so impressive, the disadvantage being immature firmware and a launch library which by far did not tap into the system's potential. This is the same as I stated at the PS3's launch regarding the state of its firmware and 1 and half years before the PS3 launched with regarding my expectations of launch titles. Let's assume, if I were a Sony blind fanboy (however note I never owned a PS2). Would I have pointed out the latter two issues?

Uh, Mike you don't have the word "about" in the post quoted by nightsurge:  http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/post.php?id=2189431

And you did not say other factors came into play at all.  You said quite directly:

You don't need have owned a PS2 to be a Sony fanboy now.  You have a festish obviously for what you think is innovative.  Which is why you are following the same arc of behavior as you did with the Amiga, this whole "ahead of its time", "misunderstood by many" thing has you on the crusade you are on.

At least fanboys, by nature of being boys and not men have an excuse.  They are kids and they may be stuck with one console.  You are an adult, its time to get over the fact that your Xbox 360 broke on you and that it then went to your kid sister.  This should not mean that you should be missing the bunch of quality titles the Xbox 360 has that the PS3 does not.  What kind of true *adult* gamer shuns going wherever the good games may be??  Answer, one with some weird fetish like you (or simple personal economics preventing such).

MikeB said: nightsurge said: MikeB said: @ nightsurge Equal time frames would be from 1995 to 1997 and 2006 to 2008. The PS1 launched at the end of 1994, the PS3 launched at the end of 2006. Taking equal timeframes the PS3 sold 22.7 million units by March 2009. The PS1 sold 13.5 million units by March 1997. Uh, no.... did you even look at the data you so kindly provided?  You are trying to include the Japan only numbers and one full year of worldwide numbers for PS1 versus the 2 years of world wide numbers (minus 6 months of Europe). If you compare their worldwide launches, or anything even remotely reasonable (as johnsobas said, anything non-crazzyman), the PS3 is roughly 4-5 million behind the PS1 when aligned at BEST, and at worst the PS3 can be said to be behind by 8 million.   I have taken that into account, that's why I stated "about". I didn't say there weren't factors involved. The PS1 was a normal specced low priced console and had some time to build up a launch library for its US and European launch. The opposite counts with regard to the PS3. I have always said that IMO the PS3 was a far ahead of its time console. The advantage of this being exclusives like Uncharted 2 being so impressive technically, the disadvantage being immature firmware and a launch library which by far did not tap into the system's potential. This is the same as I stated around the PS3's launch regarding the state of its firmware and 1 and half years before the PS3 launched with regarding my expectations of launch titles. Let's assume, if I were a Sony blind fanboy (however note I never owned a PS2). Would I have pointed out the latter two issues? However by looking at the technology and the state of how legacy software was being written, I expected this beforehand.

What issues?  You are trying to give the PS3 a handicap so that the numbers I presented don't look as bad.  And since when does "about" (which by the way you never used) equal a possible differenct of 17 million? (from 9+ to 8-).

Just admit it, the fairest thing I can do for the PS3 is to compare it to Japans first 2 years and the NA/EU first two years of the PS1.

That gives:

PS1 - 6.5 Million in Japan from Dec 1994 to Mar 1997, 11.7 million in NA, 9.6 million in EU = 27.8 million

PS3 - 22.7 from beginning end of 2006 till March 2009

A difference of the PS3 being 5.1 million BEHIND the PS1 when aligned launches.  If you account for the European delayed PS3 launch, I will take off 6 months of PS1 EU sales and the result is STILL:  PS3 being ~2.1 million BEHIND the PS1 (and that's being generous and taking off the months that included the bloated holiday sales).

That is a very different picture from the one you tried to claim as the PS3 tracking 9 million AHEAD of the PS1.

 

@ Ausfalcon

I already did so in the post before that he quoted.



Delaying the launch for other regions, both have their pros and cons. With regard to delivering ahead of its time technology its a con, with regard to polishing thing up its a pro.

Both affect sales, similarly taking equal timeframes the PS3 sold million more than the 360 sold at a higher entry pricing. But of course the 360 had an additional 5 months headstart for Europe, so the PS3 sold even better relatively to the 360. This is often ignored but I never saw you or nightsurge complain about this.



Yes, I love ahead of its time daring new technology (like Blu-Ray, Cell and Amiga's OS / custom chips). So what?

The Amiga had a major impact on the industry regarding where rival advancements were leading, IMO similarly the PS3 paves the way for future technology advancements for consoles and PCs.

@ nightsurge

You could take first 2 years PS1 available for Japan + 2 years for Europe + 2 years for US (all seperate, taking into account headstarts) However its worth keeping in mind, the headstart does mean launching with a more mature software library.

compared to:

First 2 years PS3 available for Japan + 2 years for Europe + 2 years for US (all seperate, taking into account headstarts)

The PS3 IMO performs pretty solid considering entry pricing.