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Forums - Sales Discussion - My deeply divisive prediction #1: 360>PS3 10 weeks holidays, with $299 PS3

kars on 19 May 2009
yo_john117 said:

Gah!!  I bow to your epic walls of post!!

 

 

You shouldn't bow to the length, you should think about the content! In a way I have the advantage that I don't really care who wins. I use my PS-3 mainly as a Blu-ray player, if it breaks down or I find a totally overwhelming Stand-alone player it will be replaced! While I can watch this from the sidelines friends of mine are working in the industry.

In the beginnig I was mainly interested in the technology foundations of the cell. Perhaps I could use some of these concepts in my work. But then I realized that I didn't understood how the cell was placed in the PS-3. I already heard rumours that something might be amiss and when I read some of the concepts that Sony offered I started to doubt my mind. They showed some concwepts that couldn't work! While I am used to the normal marketing garbage that every company produces something was amiss. Sonys Designers are no idiots, they know what they are doing!

In the meantime we know what really happened. People simply don't think how carefull you have to be if you publish a book and have REAL inside Knowledge.If you are really working in the industry you are often confronted with NDAs and you must learn to live with them.

You are only looking at a bunch of numbers and put a lot of believe at them, but it is quite easy to forget the reality behind these numbers. All companies have to earn money. Sonys concept to sell the consoles at a loss and live from the games was quite risky.

Currently Sonys Position is difficulkt. If they make a mistake there is the real risk that there is no sony games devision at Sony in five years. Not very likely but you don't need much  that they are loosing their place as a major competitor! They might earn the sond place and be doomed! Microsoft and Nintendo don't have this kind of trouble.

Microsoft can decide to earn money now or answer to a price war and really harm Sony. They are in a much stronger postition.

But if you are looking at the industry right now, you shouldn't be surprised if the games industry would be only half of todays size in five years.

 



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Squilliam on 19 May 2009
Kantor said:
Squilliam said:

Kantor said:
You've made some pretty ridiculous assumptions there.

Firstly, the PS3 being 3 million at a $400 price. Well, the sales only declined from 2007 to 2008 because the PS3 had a price cut in holiday 2007, while the 360 had one in holiday 2008.

Yeah, so your justification that the PS3 would have maintained its sales for the holiday season in spite of being down the previous year and during this year is due to?

I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is that you cannot increase on possible 2009 holiday sales with your fabricated percentage, you would have to increase the last available data, which would in this case be holiday 2008.

Fabricated? Its the best estimation I could give considering the PS3 is down YOY now and over the last holiday season! So therefore it would continue to lose sales over the last year without a price cut.

Historical evidence shows us that so far this gen, in the mini-HD war, the momentum is with whoever cut the price last. Sony cuts price, PS3 is in second. Microsoft cuts price, 360 is in second. Thus, if Sony were to cut the price, PS3 sales would increase, not only because it is now at an affordable price, but because it is at a MORE affordable price than it was previously. The PS3 is looking to have a better holiday lineup than the 360, so with prices equal, PS3 demand will soar above that of the 360. Those originally considering 360 purchases because they couldn't afford a PS3 would reconsider, because now they CAN afford a PS3.

Err, so if there are two price cuts at about the same time your point becomes completely invalidated.

I was wondering if I should get to that. I don't believe Microsoft will cut price at all this holiday season. I don't remember them responding to the PS3's 2007 price cut, and I see no reason why they would now. One price cut a year isn't great for Microsoft's finances, unless the manufacturing costs can decrease as well, as they would with the PS3 (Slim). Microsoft's Entertainment Division (or whatever it's called) just made a profit for the first time in, what, ten years? I don't think they are eager to lose that. And as I will mention later, the 360 is at mass market price, and now any price cuts will be either going below that price or value adding (a $200 Pro), neither of which has as much effect as a price cut from $400 to $300.

Noone, not even Sony thinks that the expected price cut will be good for their short term finances either. Furthermore the EDD made a profit, but looking deeper into the financials the Xbox 360 makes all of the profit and its not responsible for all of the losses. They could afford to cut the price and they have been far slower at cutting the price of the Xbox 360 than Sony has with the PS3.

Whilst the Xbox 360 Arcade is at a mass market price, its not at the lowest mass market price and nor is the Xbox 360 Premium which is the main SKU at the mass market price of $200ish dollars. Furthermore im sure they also reserve the right to release their own slim console and at the same time im sure they would introduce wireless (which they can't at the moment), so not only can they cut the price they can also close the feature gap between the PS3 and Xbox 360.

 


So, you cannot expect 360 sales to remain steady while PS3 sales rise slightly.

Another factor to consider here is Japan. Japan is the only region left where system sellers (short of a few huge games like Halo 3) really matter. 2008's holiday saw very few PS3 system sellers in Japan- White Knight Chronicles is about it, and even that isn't much. 2009, meanwhile, has FF13 and GT5, both of which are huge in Japan, and will give lasting boosts, especially if coupled with a price cut.

I considered Japan and these games. Japan is the reason why I expected the PS3s base demand to have only dropped to 3M @ $400 in spite of being down in sales considerably YOY.

So you would expect it to sink below 3 million with last year's Japan numbers? All I can say is...I don't agree. If Sony didn't cut the price, Microsoft definitely wouldn't, because it would be taking a profit hit for no reason- the 360 is already at mass market price, now they just need to add value i.e. improve the Arcade, or make the Pro $200, and this won't have as much effect. So I think they would remain around the same as last year.

The PS3 is down below the Xbox 360 of 2008, its looking to fall below 100k a week and yet you believe that it could still sell as well as last year? The recession still has to get worse before it gets better and this will be the first holiday season effected by the recession with full force.

Finally, the PS3 outsold the 360 (albeit only slightly) in holiday 2007, back when it had very little quality software and a still-pretty-high price tag, so I'm pretty sure it can do that again.

 

 

I hate it when people reply by bolding! Ah well. Bold and italic for me.

I hate it when people reply by bolding/italicing to my bolding. So I raise you bold/italic and pink!!!

 



Tease.

lilwingman on 19 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
Squilliam said:
^ They have the games, they just haven't talked about them yet.

 

     I think my first prediction in this thread is that no xbox holiday '09 game will result in the sale of as many 360s as  Gears of War 2 did during the holiday of '08 meanwhile games like Uncharted 2, GT5, and FFXIII in Japan will result in many more PS3 sales regardless of price cuts than LBP, Resistance 2, and Valkyrie Chronicles did the last holiday season.

 

How dare you include U2 with the likes of GT5 and FFXIII as system sellers.



It's all about the game.

HanzoTheRazor on 19 May 2009
kowenicki said:
@hanzo

or they are being bullish to keep the markets happy.... it happens.

I highly doubt with all SONY's bad press at the moment that they would lie about their 09 sales forcast of a 30% increase, just making things much worse. They have been right with them so far this gen. A $100 price cut will come towards the end of the year and the PS3 slim is also definitely comming in a year or so.

Now, the games line up for fiscal year 09 is tremendous for the PS3. Add these games to the above sales pushes and the 30% makes sense. GT5, Uncharted 2, God Of War 3, Trico, Heavy Rain, FF13 (Japan), White Knight Chronicals, M.A.G and inFAMOUS... wow! And all within 10 months from now. like SONY said at the end of 07; "2009 will really be the PS3's year".

Playing and finishing games first>>>>>>>>>>Then talking!

Opinions are subjective and just like moods, can change.

TOP 12: Deus Ex, Shadow Man, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturn, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Metroid Prime, Zelda (series), Uncharted (series), FF Tactics, Persona (series), Demons Souls, Vagrant Story.

MOST WANTED: Deus Ex: Human Revolution, The Last Guardian, ICO/Shadow OTC HD

SWA_JM_Obi-Wan on 19 May 2009
kowenicki said:
@magnific0

no... the 360 and wii have overachieved this gen big time.... look at xbox and GC for evidence.

I HATE THIS LINE OF REASONING. Even worse so many like you contradict your self. You all believe Sony was arogant in believeing that just because they had the success they had the last two gens, that they would have it again. You know what Sony was arrogant because each generation everyone starts from 0. TTHERE are no guarentees. Sony didn't underavhieve they miscalulated what the market would pay. MS has underachieved when you figure it has had a years head start, and much cheaper console and it still finds itself less than 10 mil ahead. Honestly if Sony had those advantages where do you think they would stand. Oh thats right they had them last gen and I think the Score was 120M to 25M.

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Squilliam on 19 May 2009

^

No, the PS3 is cheaper when you factor in...

No, the PS3 is better value when you factor in...



Tease.

SWA_JM_Obi-Wan on 19 May 2009
Squilliam said:
^

No, the PS3 is cheaper when you factor in...

No, the PS3 is better value when you factor in...


You never would have heard me say Either of these things. First. a Price tag is a price tag regardless, and Sony's was and still is at the moment just too high. Secondly value is great, and i do believe the PS3 offers more value, but value will only get you so far at an extremely high price tag. I'm not here to defend Sony. they either completely misjudged the Market in regards to price point or the PS3 was just a stepping stone in a much longer range plan. I believe they misjuded, but I also believe they never thought it was going to ever see a 100 mill like it's older brothers. big difference between under achieving and misjudging the market.

Squilliam on 19 May 2009

^ A more expensive PS2 outsold the Gamecube.

A $250 Wii will still outsell a $299 PS3, probably even a $250 PS3 as well.

Coca Cola still outsells its cheaper substitutes.

Toyota/Honda small cars can be more expensive and sell better than the domestic substitutes. Note the extremely high price tag on cars relative to consumer goods.

So perhaps the value in the PS3 that you see, just isn't valued by the wider market?



Tease.

monlosez on 19 May 2009

Wait for E3 June 1st :)

 

Xbox Live Director of Programming Larry Hryb, known by the pseudonym Major Nelson, has posted his latest podcast in his blog, revealing that at next year's E3, Microsoft will unveil games that are shipping in 2009 and beyond.

"The last two E3s at least, if I use that a proxy for what’s coming, we’ve talked a lot about what its coming in the next five to six months after E3, and we’ve had some pressure that maybe we want to think a little broader about what we want to say at E3, a little further out in the future," Phil Spencer, General Manager of Microsoft Game Studios, told Hryb in the podcast. "I came out of an E3 planning meeting just about an hour ago and we were looking at some of the plans for the future and things that we might want to tease. It's very exciting, because there's a lot of stuff on the docket and maybe we'll break the bank a little bit and talk about things that are further out, which will hopefully get the community excited."



saicho on 19 May 2009
SWA_JM_Obi-Wan said:
kowenicki said:
@magnific0

no... the 360 and wii have overachieved this gen big time.... look at xbox and GC for evidence.

 

I HATE THIS LINE OF REASONING. Even worse so many like you contradict your self. You all believe Sony was arogant in believeing that just because they had the success they had the last two gens, that they would have it again. You know what Sony was arrogant because each generation everyone starts from 0. TTHERE are no guarentees. Sony didn't underavhieve they miscalulated what the market would pay. MS has underachieved when you figure it has had a years head start, and much cheaper console and it still finds itself less than 10 mil ahead. Honestly if Sony had those advantages where do you think they would stand. Oh thats right they had them last gen and I think the Score was 120M to 25M.

This doesn't quite make sense. Unless Sony expected to sell only 22.24 millions PS3s in this period of time when it was launched, I would say Sony underachieved. Sony miscalculated what the market would pay and launched the console at a high price which caused them underachieve so far.

 



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.