By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - My deeply divisive prediction #1: 360>PS3 10 weeks holidays, with $299 PS3

TRios_Zen on 19 May 2009
txrattlesnake said:
kowenicki said:
@rattlesnake

thats just ridiculous... to say that without Gears 2 it would have sold half the number of consoles.

I cant prove its wrong and you cant prove its right... but it seems like a ludicrous proposition to me.

      Of all the exclusive retail games on 360 last year the only that turned out to turn out the way it was supposed to with projected ideas about what its quality would be and actual quality of the game after it had gone gold and received reviews from all of the leading places was Gears 2.  It accounted for a large percentage of 360 sales last year and its word of mouth played a psychological part in the purchase of 360 even by those that didn't buy Gears 2.

I'm not sure what your position is here...are you saying that it is only because of Gears 2 that the 360 did so well last holiday?  Seems unlikely, but couldn't the counter argument be that the only reason the PS3 did so well earlier in the year was because of MGS?  I'm not sure what you are trying to prove with that line of reasoning...

Regarding "projected and actual" quality...I'm pretty sure Fable II did very well, both sales wise, and critically.  Regardless, I'm not sure what you are trying to say here either?  Are you just trying to minimize the quality of the bigger 360 exclusives last year? How is that relevant to Squilliam's topic?

On topic, post PS3 price drop, I'd guess that the 360 wins "America" (by smaller numbers), virtually ties in "others" and loses Japan badly.  If that happens, then I'm betting against Squilliam's projection here...given the outcome of his two previous (at the time, outlandish claims), I'm doubting myself now...

 



Around the Network
TRios_Zen on 19 May 2009
Kantor said:
goddog said:
yo_john117 said:
Just a question...how many of your predictions have come true??

ive known of 2 of his predictions to come true, though i dont know how many he has made.   both were about sales though and both seemed like a bit of a stretch at the time..... Ive been here since 07 if that  gives you an idea 

Correct: 360 > PS3 in Q3-Q4 2008

360 > PS3 in Q1-Q2 2009

Incorrect: 360 will be above 200k every week in 2009 (he claims he was drunk)

Pending: 360 > PS3 in 10 weeks of holiday with $299 PS3, which looks on track to be false.

Of course, everyone doubted his first prediction, but that was because of a lack of knowledge. In this case, Squilliam has so kindly provided a specific scenario, so we can call him delusional in peace

In my previous post, I actually agreed that Squilliam's prediction would probably not pan out, but I'm not sure exactly how you can say the bolded above.  Rather, if you are saying you think it is on track to be false, I'd understand, but I'm not sure how given the current market conditions you could absolutley stat that it IS on track to be false. 

Just wondering what your logic was there.

 



Serious_frusting on 19 May 2009

this thread fails as soon as i see 300 USD PS3 Would increase its sales less then the first price cut the ps3 had.

I mean come on Every one knows that consoles sell better at the 300-200 Dollas price tag i mean dont be silly, The PS3 will explide when its sales his that pricew. think PS2 like sales.

The ps3's true launch starts at 300. Bexause then its the true price of a Playstation brand console



Nobody's perfect. I aint nobody!!!

Killzone 2. its not a fps. it a FIRST PERSON WAR SIMULATOR!!!! ..The true PLAYSTATION 3 launch date and market dominations is SEP 1st

Grooski on 19 May 2009

What a fucking ridiculous assertion - predicting sales on last years figures assuming nothing else changes? Sales of consoles at christmas is always based around price and releasing software.

For what its worth, PS3 at 299, Massive GT5 release in EU/JPN, Massive FFXIII release in JPN, GOW3 and several other games releasing US before Mar 2010 and momentum will be massively in favour of Sony heading into the holidays. Add to this the PS3 slim rumour and many pundits believe 13 mill is too conservative. This also coming on the back of an already lower yoytd?

MS need to step up at E3 and show substantial release plans for THIS year. The nearest momentum shifter for them comes with ME2 next March. Last years E3 showed Lips and Scene It for holiday release and that shit aint cutting it this year.



Zizzla_Rachet on 19 May 2009
Megadude said:
I agree that a $150 arcade could push the 360 over the top, but am skeptical that it will happen in 2009.

 

Over the top of what?...360 is already over Ps3....perhaps you mean the Wii?...and if so...I disagree...



 



Around the Network
Seece on 19 May 2009
Grooski said:
What a fucking ridiculous assertion - predicting sales on last years figures assuming nothing else changes? Sales of consoles at christmas is always based around price and releasing software.

For what its worth, PS3 at 299, Massive GT5 release in EU/JPN, Massive FFXIII release in JPN, GOW3 and several other games releasing US before Mar 2010 and momentum will be massively in favour of Sony heading into the holidays. Add to this the PS3 slim rumour and many pundits believe 13 mill is too conservative. This also coming on the back of an already lower yoytd?

MS need to step up at E3 and show substantial release plans for THIS year. The nearest momentum shifter for them comes with ME2 next March. Last years E3 showed Lips and Scene It for holiday release and that shit aint cutting it this year.

 

Just shows how much you know. Games will have minimum effect as from ... well last year actually. Mass Effect is NOT the "nearest momentum shifter"



 

BMaker11 on 19 May 2009

$400 PS3 significantly outsold a $350 360. A $300 PS3 would destroy a $300 360. My two cents



Zizzla_Rachet on 19 May 2009
BMaker11 said:
$400 PS3 significantly outsold a $350 360. A $300 PS3 would destroy a $300 360. My two cents

 

When MGS4 came out?.....Nice....and LOL



 



BMaker11 on 19 May 2009
Zizzla_Rachet said:
BMaker11 said:
$400 PS3 significantly outsold a $350 360. A $300 PS3 would destroy a $300 360. My two cents


When MGS4 came out?.....Nice....and LOL

Uhhh...no. Try the end of 2007 all the way up to either August or September of 2008 when the 360 price cut to $300 kicked in

Edit: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39411&end=39719



Seece on 19 May 2009
BMaker11 said:
Zizzla_Rachet said:
BMaker11 said:
$400 PS3 significantly outsold a $350 360. A $300 PS3 would destroy a $300 360. My two cents

 

When MGS4 came out?.....Nice....and LOL

Uhhh...no. Try the end of 2007 all the way up to either August or September of 2008 when the 360 price cut to $300 kicked in

Edit: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=&reg1=------&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39411&end=39719

That is not significant, and nowhere near that the 360 did over the PS3 last christmas.