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Forums - Sales - Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

Erik Aston on 21 September 2007

Mrstickball:

1.) Wii Fit will absolutely move a ton of hardware. Jeez. Wii Sports/Play are party-oriented mini-games. Wii Fit is a personal fitness tool. That's at least as far apart as MGS4 and GTA4.

2.) At least 20M of that old PS3 userbase probably already have a next-gen console, btw, and the remainder aren't all going to go to just one console. Some will go to each, and some to 2 or more of them.

3.) You listed 7 games, and they have no chance of moving 100M combined. Even if the first four sold 15M apiece, and the last 3 10M apiece (which is totally, ridiculously, unrealistic), that's only 90M. I'll bet you right now those 7 games won't reach 75M.

6 games which will reach 100M total? Wii Play, Nintendogs, Pokemon D/P, NSMB, SMG, GTAIV.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

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Apostrovich on 21 September 2007

I have to say that even if the Wii IS a fad, Wii Fit is going to move a lot of systems. My sister never did any actual gaming in her whole life, and she's 25, and now she wants a Wii so she can use Wii Fit. I get the distinct feeling that game is going to get a lot of females owning Wiis.



                                   

fazz on 21 September 2007

To answer the original question: No.

This is a traditionally low time for consoles in Japan, and Halo is going to be released next week. It was going to be expected that Xbox 360 outsold Wii next week/month. I even predicted it in an older post.



akuma587 on 21 September 2007

You guys really think the Wii can push 175 million consoles? You guys are fucking crazy, the DS won't even sell that many before its life cycle ends.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

flagship on 21 September 2007

I wouldn't call it the Wii bubble bursting but rather the supply finally catching up to the demand. It's not like the Wii is going to fall off the charts, in fact even with reduced sales it will probably be the best selling system next year as well. Wii sales have been amazing to this point, expecting them to carry on would be silly.

I expect you'll see a bit of a decrease through early November and then a swift increase in time for the holidays. I'd guess come Feb. the Wii will probably start to stabilize at somewhere around 50k a month.



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sharky on 21 September 2007

The Wii is slowing down lately in Japan. And for all those saying all consoles are slowing so it's no big deal, the problem with that theory is PSP sales shot up last week (due to a game bundle, true, but still). This just shows that no, not all consoles are slowing down.

So far in America Wii is still selling out. Even if Xbox 360 approaches Wii sales in NA, it wont be a true picture because Wii is still supply constrained and could be doing much more if they had ample supply. Nonetheless, whatever the reason, if 360 sales approach Wii sales it will still be a big deal. If nothing else it will prove that MS can manufactore more systems than Nintendo can. At some point the raw numbers are what's important, and not whether supply constraints or lack thereof caused them. The goal is to sell more systems, nearly regardless of how you get there. If at the end of this generation Microsoft sold more because Nintendo had chronic supply problems, guess what that still counts.


The problem is Japan is like a canary in a coal mine. For example, the DS wild success started in Japan and then spread. So a Wii slowdown might also start in Japan and eventually spread. That is what Nintendo fans must truly be concerned about.


But another thing is, demand is about to go through the roof because the holiday season approaches. So if there is some underlying Wii slowdown, I think it'll be masked until early 2008 anyway. I think a better test of the Wii will be sales in months like February, and March of 2008. If there is a Wii slowdown, it'll show up in North America then.



Onimusha12 on 21 September 2007

There is plenty to worry about the Wii, the real question is when will heavy third party support kick in to jump start hardcore gamers enthusiasm for it and will casual enthusiams for it ever die out? It's a very precarious situation, I wonder sometimes if the Wii is really as invincible as we like to think it is.



mesoteto on 21 September 2007
Onimusha12 said:
There is plenty to worry about the Wii, the real question is when will heavy third party support kick in to jump start hardcore gamers enthusiasm for it and will casual enthusiams for it ever die out? It's a very precarious situation, I wonder sometimes if the Wii is really as invincible as we like to think it is.

 

I dont think any of the systems are invinceable right now..but as far as third party alot seems to be coming for fall and winter line ups then early into next year---personaly i cant wait for "No More Heros"

 

Erik Aston on 21 September 2007

Third party Wii support? There were as many Wii games at TGS as PS3 and 360 combined. Last year, each PS3 and 360 had over 3 times as many games.

http://gonintendo.com/?p=25590



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

bluesinG on 21 September 2007

Wii supply is still not meeting demand in the US. How can we tell? If it were readily available, you could buy a new one at or below retail price on ebay or amazon marketplace.

On ebay, the last 5 auctions for unbundled Wiis closed at an average price of $307 including shipping (as of 1:00 PM Pacific time).

On amazon marketplace, the least expensive listing for a new Wii is $352 including shipping.