with a GT5 launch in Dec - Jan in Europe and NA and  FFXIII launch in Japan, i think PS3 can do .5m extra in Jap and 1 m extra in Europe and NA. Plus normal stream of good exlusives is already ther like Uncharted 2 and inFamous and R&C and MAG.. so 10 + 1.5 for the extra boast given by FFXIII and GT5 seems not out of range to me.

I doubt GT5 will make it 2009 calendar year, but it's still within the realm of reality to think it could hit before March 31st 2010.

But that doesn't account for the lower sales we're seeing right now. From the beginning of the year, PS3 sales are down around 10% YoY, and 30% down from the beginning of the quarter. So instead of 5 million between April and October as last year, we could see 3.5 - 4.5 million instead (not to mention a potential effect in November, depending on when those games launch).

9-10 million if no price cut (Wii and 360 would toss the PS3 around like a frisbee)

13-15 million with a price cut in the latter half of the year

18-20 million with a price cut really soon (like after E3 soon)


I predict a doubling of the usual sales if theres a price cut to $300

Sony has forecast 13 million, so my prediction has failed... They also said they're not expecting profit in gaming yet for this year, after losing $600 million in the past fiscal year.

I wonder how they plan to ever be profitable if they're planning a $100 price cut this year, going against everything they've been telling the shareholders since forever ("focusing on profitability").

In other words, Sony still seems too bullish and eager to lose money even in the face of a recession and when forecasting losses for the whole company. I see a bit of hubris in these forecasts and decisions.

@kowenicki: I'm not sure it will ease fears for shareholders.

It will be interesting to see today's questions at the investors conference. Someone might well ask what on earth is going on at SCE which never attains the promised profitability. The answer would even be more interesting, to see whether they acknowledge they're ignoring profitability or not given these sales targets.

600 million loss in the last fiscal year? That is quite a hefty chunk of the total loss....

13 million seems high, especially wuth consumer electronics being hit hard by the recession.

May be they are also expecting not one but two major franchise to release in next fiscal yr giving them some good hardware boast.

As I already stated, I don't think the large releases in this coming fiscal year are going to be any bigger (hardware wise) than all of the releases from the previous fiscal year.  Looking at current trends I would estimate that these games would need to move ~5 million consoles, and I don't think that is a likely scenario.

Now in the event of a price cut coming sometime in the late summer, aligning with a big release (the only one they have that would qualify is GT5), then the 13 million projection seems more reasonable.  Any other scenario seems extremely unlikely and would be Sony just blowing smoke.

If Sony are sensible then I would expect a price cut in August/September

Richard