Interesting statement, and I think it could be true.

First of all, you should all stop to say stupid things like "Sony has a track record of supporting their consoles into the next generation". That is nothing about Sony, but about A SUCCESSFUL CONSOLE.

If you look at past generations, all winning consoles have been supported longer than their competitors, the NES, the SNES, the PS1, the PS2 and the Gameboy/GBA.

When you have huge install bases and are making money, there's no reason at all to discontinue a console, but if you are losing ground every month, you better start something new.

The special thing this generation is that there might be more than one successful competitor at the end, for example Nintendo and Microsoft. This could end up in a long gen because Sony probably won't be able to force the beginning of a new gen either because they can't spent too much money on R&D as long as the PS3 keeps posting losses.

However, if either Nintendo or Microsoft think that it's time to make a step, Sony is going to struggle. If Microsoft would be the first one out of the gate again, they'd still have a very strong competitor in Nintendo and Microsoft would be eating into their share of next-gen already.
In that case, it could really be that the retail stops selling PS3's due to a lack of interest and shelf space. The question would be then if Sony can afford to release a new console.

If Nintendo would be the first one out of the gates, things would look a little better for Sony, since, as Squirrel has said, the HD-twin thing would ensure software support. Still, if Sony is trailing behind the 360 at that point in time and the Wii still a success while the Super Wii is already out, shelf space would get rare for Sony...


Of course this is all without the possibility of a huge PS3 comeback, since this just isn't going to happen.

Its in Microsofts best interests to weaken Sony as much as possible. The more people they can get signed up with Xbox Live, the greater their chances of winning the next generation as well. Hell, im half expecting them to do a little price cut after E3 -> Drop price $50, introduce new SKUs with that camera at higher but still low price of say $270 and have the Arcade at $180 etc that way people can leave the store with change from $200 or $300 after sales tax. But that seems really foolish without confirmation of any kind.

Sony went all in for the Blu Ray. Do they still have the money? Can they throw more money after the PS3? They also make regular Blu Ray players. Perhaps these get priority over the PS3. Whatever they do, Sony will have evaluate past tactics and make hard choices. It can't be like before, at least not moneywise.

Support for the ps3 from a developer's perspective will remain relative for all big budget release so long as it can remain semi-competitive on a global scale. Assuming the above (a very possible scenario) I see no reason why the PS3 will kick the bucket well before the 360.

I believe the two HD console's existence is hinged on each other, so the question is, how long do you expect the 360 to last, and do you believe that the ps3 will run well short of this?

Interesting points.

ur right none of those features matter now but wen the next gen starts and the ps3 is at 150$ compared to a 400$ 720 or even 300$ wii2 they will, and they will matter soon once the ps3 gets to 300$ and below which i predict will happen this year

i dont think so have u seen the graphix for KZ2 compared to Halo 3 or KZ2 compared to any current console FPS? by 2012 PS3s gaming will be way different than todays once technology catches up to it its future games will make its current games look inferior.  The PS3 was purposely build the way it is its so called future proof so that it can take on the the next gen 150$ PS3 vs 300$-500$ next gen consoles sounds like PS3 win to me

Of course it won't. No console will. The world ends in 2012.

We may be looking here at companies doing "tech refreshes" the way the Wii and the DS/Gameboy series have been. A system completely compatible with the old games is released, which has upgrades to it, comes out every 5 years or so. Even now, you see Sony and Microsoft doing tweaks to their systems, such as upgrading the harddrives. Memory could be the next one to be upgraded, then the graphics chip. Then the CPU gets to be faster.

I've seen KZ2 on a 53" High end Bravia, It was pretty good. Still, I hate dark games. I liked Gears 2 better because the visuals were clearer for me. By 2012, you say? By 2012 you could probably build a new console which was more than 3* as powerful as the PS3 for the same price, its fixed hardware remember? The PS2 was also a future proofed console, remember what happened with that also?

I'll agree that the PS3 isn't showing strong sales at the moment, but we're in a recession which won't last forever. There's also many other factors which will impact the sales of the PS3 (such as the eventual price cut, slim model, exclusives, etc).

Anyway, as a current supporter of the XBox shouldn't you be more concerned when the 360 will be dropped in Japan?