PlayStation 3 Could Surge Ahead in 2009 DFC predicts the game industry as a whole could generate $47 billion that year. by Ryan Geddes September 18, 2007 - According to a series of recent reports by the research group DFC Intelligence, the game industry is poised to see enormous overall growth in 2009, just in time for the PlayStation 3 to overtake the Xbox 360 in the console race. DFC estimates that the videogame market will swell to $47 billion by 2009, a 42 percent increase over the $33 billion generated by the industry in 2006. That forecast includes revenue from videogame hardware and software, dedicated portable system hardware and software (i.e. the DS and PSP - not mobile phones), PC games, and online PC and console games. But the Xbox 360's selling power could be on the wane, according to DFC's research. The company has raised its forecast for the Nintendo Wii and PlayStation 3 and lowered its forecast for Microsoft's console, predicting that the Wii will stay on top through 2008 and that the PS3 will move into overdrive in 2009. "The Xbox 360 will need to build a strong base outside North America to avoid being in a fairly distant third," said DFC analyst David Cole. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue." Using three separate market forecasting models, DFC estimates that combined cumulative worldwide sales for the three console systems will reach between 180 million to 210 million units by 2012. But home consoles won't be the only winners, according to DFC. The PC market, spurred by the success of online games and digital distribution, stands to grow to $13 billion by 2012, the research indicates. Previous DFC estimates put the online PC game market at about $4.5 billion in 2006. Handheld systems and software are also strong performers and Cole predicts that "the Nintendo DS could eventually become the best selling game system ever in five years.

 Very interesting outlook, I'll even agree that it's more plausible then the PS3 pushing past the Wii in 2008 but will pass the 360 in Fall 2008.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/820/820689p1.html

Yeah, take everything analysts say with a huge grain of salt. Like with this article, even though PC is getting Starcraft 2, UTIII, and Spore, they've overestimated a bit there. Also, the game industry is just so hard to predict because one announcement can completely change everything.

A year ago the PS3 was going to be the leader again. A few months ago Lair was going to start the PS3 storm. Not saying the PS3 can't take a huge lead, but 2009 is a long ways away and Sony just needs to concentrate on getting there first.

09, 360 dies in 08 wii in 09

you know how much of an increase in sales it would take to pass 360 by fall 08?

twesterm said: Yeah, take everything analysts say with a huge grain of salt. Like with this article, even though PC is getting Starcraft 2, UTIII, and Spore, they've overestimated a bit there. Also, the game industry is just so hard to predict because one announcement can completely change everything. A year ago the PS3 was going to be the leader again. A few months ago Lair was going to start the PS3 storm. Not saying the PS3 can't take a huge lead, but 2009 is a long ways away and Sony just needs to concentrate on getting there first.

 Yes, but Factor 4.5 kicked themselves in the balls and Incognito walked away from them shaking their head while Warhawk lead the fight. 

It is possible

according to me Ps3 has 2nd place ALREADY due to JAPAN

Now with the wii, you just never know

ssj12 said: twesterm said: Yeah, take everything analysts say with a huge grain of salt. Like with this article, even though PC is getting Starcraft 2, UTIII, and Spore, they've overestimated a bit there. Also, the game industry is just so hard to predict because one announcement can completely change everything. A year ago the PS3 was going to be the leader again. A few months ago Lair was going to start the PS3 storm. Not saying the PS3 can't take a huge lead, but 2009 is a long ways away and Sony just needs to concentrate on getting there first. Yes, but Factor 4.5 kicked themselves in the balls and Incognito walked away from them shaking their head while Warhawk lead the fight.

True, from what I've read Warhawk is awesome and I'm glad that people are loving the crap out of it, I'm just saying don't trust everything you read from analysts and the likes because, especially in the gaming industry, just one bad review or one bad PR stunt to fuck up everything. -edit- Just look at the Wii. Early to mid 2006 everyone but Nintendo and the die hard fanboys said it would fail and wouldn't have a chance in hell in competing with the big boys.

this is the best analysis iv'e read by an analyst [ie not someone from here] and i agree with most of it, though i think it will be late 09 ps3 surpasses 360 [maybe even december late]. and i also think the phrasing of 'more Wii hardware but more ps3 software revenue' is a tad dubious because Wii games are cheaper by $10-20 each.... and even using revenue i'm not sure ps3 software will out Wii software for the whole of 2009.

I don't know, $ony has a lot of ground to make up and they will need to make a few more price adjustments to get there. In the meantime, Microsoft and (eventually) Yentindo will drop their prices, so if P$3 does pulls ahead, a longterm date like 2012 is more likely than 2008 or 2009.

Eh. In the part you quoted it said that the Wii might sell more hardware and that the PS3 might sell more software.

So... they're saying the PS3 wouldn't win the console race.

Considering there isn't much info on what software Nintendo is coming out with next year it seems a bit premature even with the big releases on the PS3 and the huge install base gap which they say might just get bigger in 2009.