It will move exactly 45,495 units.

this definition is too broad though. In this case, most games are system sellers since I'm sure most games would appeal to at least one consumer to buy the console.

Also, in PS3 case, what if someone purchased PS3 to play RE5 but also participate the release of God of War 3, do you count RE5 to be the system seller or God of War 3?

That doesnt make sense when it comes to GAME sales though. If ppl are hacking the system to play burnt games, then obviously they are not buying the games~!!

Hey man! I'm buying the PS3 for VC. Sure I'm buying for other games too, but VC was what really convinced me to stay on the Sony ride.

Edit: I should mention GoWIII I suppose. I think by the time it comes out many GoW fans will have already purchased their PS3s, but not all, so there will be a spike. It won't be a turning point for PS3, though. Only console price can be a turning point for PS3 if you are concerned about PS3's position relative to the other 2 consoles. But only a 2009 price cut can really turn PS3 around in terms of position on the leader board. Yet another holiday season at the current price will cement PS3's present position.

While I'm not going to refute your points completely, I would to offer some counterpoints, all in the spirit of moderation.

1. When God of War II was released, it had almost no competition whatsoever. PS2 was dead on new software. It still sold worse than the first one.

2. Install base. PS3 will have around 25 million when GoW III is released (around being the keyword), while PS2 had around 120 million. Expecting a 20% attatch ratio for a niche game such as God of War might be just a bit much. And you can be very sure that at least 75% of the sales will come in the first couple of months.

3. Your argument that God of War would have sold 5 million if not for piracy is unfounded, and most likely just wishful thinking.

My expectation is that it will do about as good as the original God of War.

Nay

Although if you meant Gears of War 3 I would say yes.

1. Everyone had moved onto new systems. Most people's Ps2's were dust collectors at that point.

2. If MGS can push 4 million, I dont see why GoW can't. Looking at sales of the first two games, I'm amazed by the large percentage of sales that came ONLY from USA/North America. I'm wondering if the Europe/Other sales were massively under tracked, or if Sony didn't advertise the game overseas? Rest assured, Sony will be running a huge marketing campaign for GoW when it comes out.

3. Not really. There's no concrete proof on how many ppl had modded Ps2's, but I'm sure it was a large amount. Especially since the GoW games came out later in the Ps2 lifecycle. Almost everyone I know with a Ps2 had it modded.

Hmmm. I think it will be on par with previous entries of the series.

Not much more, not much less.

I mean if Motor Storm can move 3+ million............