I suspect the reason is due to the fact that the Japanese gamer population itself is shrinking due to the aging population there and they are simply choosing to keep purchasing games etc for their existing PS2 and not upgrading to the current generation. No other country has as vibrant PS2 development as that country by far.

Im up because I can't sleep! Its freaky that you remember im from NZ and the time differential is 12 hours!

I think with the economy and the wails of complaints from developers over the hike just the 360/PS3 have brought to budgets a new console, unless it was only a marginal leap in power, would be a mistake.

Unless MS ate a ton of loss to try and get rid of Sony they'd have to risk going back to being the more expensive console and pushing developers to raise budgets while asking people to spend a lot more money on a new console.

Sure, the hardcore Halo/Gears crew might move for new franchise entries - but I really don't see the majority doing so.

If MS were to release an new, more expensive higher speced console it could just as easily go pear shaped IMHO - and they would find out exactly how Sony felt when the PS3 stalled after launch.


I note Peter Moore quoted recently that there was a lot of runway left in the current generation... and I suspect he has a fair inkling of MS strategy even now he's at EA.

I don't understand why people continue to claim that Microsoft like short generations.. Isn't it widely known that it was nVidia that caused the XBOX to be discontinued? Beside the 360 seems to be in it's peak year, why the hell would Microsoft bring out a new console when the 360 is actually making them money now?

No the next XBOX will arrive sometime after 2010.. Most likely in 2011

      I don't know where you come up with the idea that the 360 is in its peak year.  It looks like 2007 was its peak year and we're two years removed from that.

Read the post that I copied and pasted from a secret location to here, its the 2nd one down. I think pretty much answers all of that in spite of it being verbose.

Yes, your article is interesting (I hadn't read it all yet when I felt the urge to answer other posts in the thread ) and far more realistic, but I can agree it could be a good idea only if MS doesn't kill XB360 when it releases XB720, otherwise 360 risks to not recover the initial investments like XB1 did, and shareholders wouldn't be happy.

Anyhow, during 2010 PS3 cut down to $300 would be very recent, if happened at all (a US$ still weak towards the end of this year could even make Sony cut 100€ in EU but only $50-70 in USA, and do in Japan a cut more finely tuned, thanks to the list price in the tens thousands ¥), so the market, thanks also to the crisis, could not feel the need for another expensive console yet. Releasing too early could also force MS to choose between a new console almost underpowered and easily and cheaply surpassed by competitors if they release later or an horribly costly powerful one, being in the latter case forced to chose like Sony this gen amongst price it quite low and lose an awful lot of money, price it quite high, selling less and still losing money or price it too high and selling only to sheiks.

So, how about if the earliest and more daring releases in 2011? MS could do it much more easily, having released its current one one year earlier, and a six year gap with the current one would allow the old console to earn more, easily recovering initial investments and profiting too, and the new one to be a significant leap forward without costin too much.

Obviously all this doesn't apply if MS aim is to crush Sony, but, as you wrote, by then PS3 would be in the mid range of the market and a new high end competitor wouldn't damage it too much.

It wouldn't be slim anymore! Slim cases fans like them thin, not simply small.

 Very true, but as you too wrote here, Nintendo must find the answer inside itself, not in what Sony and MS do or don't.

Cool release dates

10/10/10 X/X/X xbox 3x

10/08/10 xbox 1080

10/20 2010 xbox mirror

11/11/11 xbox 1100

11/20 2011

Its a complicated issue really, I would probably have to write a 50+ page thesis on it to really cover even the main dynamics.

Releasing early has its advantages, releasing late has its advantages. There are multiple winning solutions really, its a truely dynamic and difficult thing to predict or anticipate.

As an example if one was looking at a $400 console (Retail) with typical loss leading margins with todays technology, lets say the Xbox 360 was built today rather than 4 years ago. We're looking at a total power budget of 180W maximum for both CPU and GPU.

GPU:

• HD 4770 with 640 stream processors (140mm^2 GPU)
  
• 512MB of GDDR5 51.2GB/S bandwidth on a 128bit bus
• Direct X 11 features so compute shaders/tessellator
• 32MB ED-Ram which can fit 1920/1080 with FP16 @2xAA

Essentially its got about 3-4* the raw shader power and it can run full HD resolutions easily and on top of that it can be used for floating point intensive calculations such as physics, animation etc. This is just an example to show you what they could do if they just switched out the GPU for something better.

Anyway releasing early lets them execute their strategy first, so they can dictate terms to the other console manufacturers who will have to compete with the price and specs the console is already at. For example the PS3 would have been fine @ $5-600 if the Xbox 360 didn't exist @ $400. The only real problem is providing a system which the market wants, because its already been proved that consoles can sell quite well when they do cost $400.

Im tired, I can't argue effectively... night!