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Squilliam on 02 May 2009
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Alby_da_Wolf said:

Yes, your article is interesting (I hadn't read it all yet when I felt the urge to answer other posts in the thread ) and far more realistic, but I can agree it could be a good idea only if MS doesn't kill XB360 when it releases XB720, otherwise 360 risks to not recover the initial investments like XB1 did, and shareholders wouldn't be happy.

Anyhow, during 2010 PS3 cut down to $300 would be very recent, if happened at all (a US$ still weak towards the end of this year could even make Sony cut 100€ in EU but only $50-70 in USA, and do in Japan a cut more finely tuned, thanks to the list price in the tens thousands ¥), so the market, thanks also to the crisis, could not feel the need for another expensive console yet. Releasing too early could also force MS to choose between a new console almost underpowered and easily and cheaply surpassed by competitors if they release later or an horribly costly powerful one, being in the latter case forced to chose like Sony this gen amongst price it quite low and lose an awful lot of money, price it quite high, selling less and still losing money or price it too high and selling only to sheiks.

So, how about if the earliest and more daring releases in 2011? MS could do it much more easily, having released its current one one year earlier, and a six year gap with the current one would allow the old console to earn more, easily recovering initial investments and profiting too, and the new one to be a significant leap forward without costin too much.

Obviously all this doesn't apply if MS aim is to crush Sony, but, as you wrote, by then PS3 would be in the mid range of the market and a new high end competitor wouldn't damage it too much.

Its a complicated issue really, I would probably have to write a 50+ page thesis on it to really cover even the main dynamics.

Releasing early has its advantages, releasing late has its advantages. There are multiple winning solutions really, its a truely dynamic and difficult thing to predict or anticipate.

As an example if one was looking at a $400 console (Retail) with typical loss leading margins with todays technology, lets say the Xbox 360 was built today rather than 4 years ago. We're looking at a total power budget of 180W maximum for both CPU and GPU.

GPU:

  • HD 4770 with 640 stream processors (140mm^2 GPU)
  • 512MB of GDDR5 51.2GB/S bandwidth on a 128bit bus
  • Direct X 11 features so compute shaders/tessellator
  • 32MB ED-Ram which can fit 1920/1080 with FP16 @2xAA

Essentially its got about 3-4* the raw shader power and it can run full HD resolutions easily and on top of that it can be used for floating point intensive calculations such as physics, animation etc. This is just an example to show you what they could do if they just switched out the GPU for something better.

Anyway releasing early lets them execute their strategy first, so they can dictate terms to the other console manufacturers who will have to compete with the price and specs the console is already at. For example the PS3 would have been fine @ $5-600 if the Xbox 360 didn't exist @ $400. The only real problem is providing a system which the market wants, because its already been proved that consoles can sell quite well when they do cost $400.

Im tired, I can't argue effectively... night!

 

 



Tease.