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Forums - General - H1N1 Swine flu spreading

Torillian said:
twesterm said:

 

-edit-

And I admit I'm pretty much ignorant on the situation since I only heard about it in passing on the news and from what I've seen in this thread.

Torillian seems to know what he's talking about though.

 

I've had to do a couple reports on it for Biochem classes.  Unfortunately I don't know exactly how vaccines work.  I had thought we made vaccines each flu season with different N and H strains to try and catch what's the most prevalent, and if we knew that this newest "pandemic" was coming from the H1N1 strain then we should be able to prepare and vaccinate for it. 

The issue is that if you don't have a vaccine you really can't get rid of the virus, all you can do is use anti-viral drugs to slow down the virus until your immune system is able to put it into remission. 

With all that, like you said, even if there isn't a vaccine, this isn't something amazingly deadly such as the Spanish Flu, and even if it was, we are now much better equpped medically than we were back then.  Some people will die from it, but people die from many diseases that we don't even think about.  It is unfortunate, but it's just the way things are.

edit: thinking about it, perhaps if enough changed genetically and it is an influenza that has structure meant to attack swine or birds, and it now has the H1N1 proteins to be able to attack humans then maybe that would be why vaccination isn't an option.

I'm not too up with this topic any more but i think i can offer some answers.  Firstly i've tried to track down what are the most common serotypes of Influenza A but with no success.  

H1N1 strains have been found in humans and been the cause of pandemics before (e.g Spanish Flu), and although endemic in pigs it may not have been a common serotype in humans in recent times.

Even so the H and N designation is only part of the story.  We could create a H1N1 vaccine this year and a new kind of H1N1 virus could present next year which is resistant to the vaccine.  This is due to minor changes in the H and N.

Furthermore the H1N1 designation doesn't tell us directly how dangerous the disease is but it can tell us something about it's infectious potential.  If year after year we get H2N3 and minor variations on that theme, as a population our immune systems get used to it (our immune systems are smarter than vaccines).  If all of a sudden H1N1 is introduced into a population where it hasn't existed for years, our immune systems don't know how to deal with it, more people get infected and spread it around.

Finally, let's say there is an outbreak of H1N1 this year, many people get infected but not many people die. Then 6 months from now in the southern hemisphere there is an outbreak of H1N1 and millions of people die, what's the difference? While they are both H1N1, the virus has other proteins in it's structure (besides H and N) which determine how dangerous it is to humans.  If one or more of these proteins change, for example by mixing with other kinds of influenza virus, then all of a sudden we can find ourselves with a form of influenza that can both spread rapidly and have a high mortality rate.

Sorry this ended up so long but i hope it clarifies some things but don't take it as gospel as it's a long time since i studied this stuff.

 



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akuma587 said:
Everyone will have forgotten about this by next week. Remember when I said that everyone would forget about the pirate attacks by next week? Now they have moved onto Swine Flu.

I would say that depends entirely on how much the virus spreads and how many people die. If by next week the disease has spread to tens or hundreds of thousands of people instead of just thousands, I guarantee people will still be talking about it.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

No no one personally, I live in Austin, Texas (soon to go to NJ for Coast Guard boot camp), and I am not worried. I pretty much avoid most people anyways (hardly go out) and don't have too many friends that live in Austin. So unless someone brings it to boot camp then I have probably 0 chance of catching it.



If anyone is interested in experts' opinions here is an article with 6 of them (some of them a bit UK focused):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8022102.stm

A quick summary of the 6 opinions:

1- The virus is not very dangerous, but it will probably infect 30-40% of the population during the next 6 months.
2- Not enough information yet, but we have to prepare.
3- No panic is needed, this virus will probably not cause huge mortality.
4- The next few days are crucial to tell what will happen.
5- The UK has the means to combat a potential pandemic.
6- Same as 2.



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

We are all going to die. This is it, we are in end times. War(Middle East), Financial crisis(Famine), Obama(Antichrist) and now Swine Flu(Disease). Perfect combination for the end of the world.



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^All those listed except anti-christs (which have been falsely predicted throughout time) have already happened and will continue to happen. Just like most people have tried to predict end of times they are always wrong. I suppose you are joking though.



NJ5 said:
If anyone is interested in experts' opinions here is an article with 6 of them (some of them a bit UK focused):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8022102.stm

A quick summary of the 6 opinions:

1- The virus is not very dangerous, but it will probably infect 30-40% of the population during the next 6 months.
2- Not enough information yet, but we have to prepare.
3- No panic is needed, this virus will probably not cause huge mortality.
4- The next few days are crucial to tell what will happen.
5- The UK has the means to combat a potential pandemic.
6- Same as 2.

I have my doubts about point 5, though it may be in the semantics. While a country may have the means to combat a potential pandemic, their ability to combat an actual pandemic is probably not as good as most people would like to believe. They might have the ability to nip something in the bud via effective quarantining and disinfection, but if it breaks out all bets are off.

I think if 30% of the UK came down with a 'flu that is only slightly worse than the usual annual 'flu the UK health system would be strained to breaking having to deal with this disease along with all of the other health issues that won't hold off and wait till the 'flu thing has blown over.

Number 2 and number 4 are really where things are at.

 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

^I thought flu season was pretty much over for the northern hemisphere?



As long as I don't get sick until finals are over, I don't give a shit about Swine flu. Infect away.



We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls.  The only thing that really worried me was the ether.  There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke

It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...."  Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson

Now, there is claimed to be a 1912 prophecy by Johanwa Owalo, the founder of Kenya’s Nomiya Luo Church, about the US: “So far have they (the US) strayed into wickedness in those (future) times that their destruction has been sealed by my (father). Their great cities will burn, their crops and cattle will suffer disease and death, their children will perish from diseases never seen upon this Earth, and I reveal to you the greatest (mystery) of all as I have been allowed to see that their (the US) destruction will come about through the vengeful hands of one of our very own sons.”

Super viruses are now spreading all over world and they can not be stopped, Bible prophesy in full motion. The prediction made back in 1912 is coming true, 100 years later.