Note: I'm am discussing the war for SECOND place. We all know the Wii will take first easily, so I decided to focus on the battle between the HD consoles only.
When the original PlayStation launched in 1994, many had doubts as to the viability of the platform. Sony was a newcomer to the world of video games, and gamers and analysts alike had reservations about trusting an unproven console manufacturer, thanks to the likes of the 3DO, TurboGrafx-16, and other unsuccessful forays into the gaming realm. Many were keen to wait for the upcoming Sega Saturn, or the Nintendo 64, rather than make the jump into the world of Sony. The fact that the Nintendo 64 was set to release at $199 USD (compared to $299 for the PlayStation) and the fact that the SNES was so successful were other factors that turned people off to Sony's new console.
However, shortly after the console launched (Dec. '94 in Japan, Sept. '95 in NA and PAL), it began to take off. It seemed as if the initial stigmas against the console had completely vanished, and the PlayStation went on to completely dominate the fifth generation of gaming. How did this happen? What was the key factor that led to the dominance of the PlayStation, despite the cheaper Nintendo 64?
Games.
The PlayStation enjoyed a plethora of games from every genre. Games like Twisted Metal, Gran Turismo, and Warhawk, memorable characters like Solid Snake, Cloud Strife, and Sir Daniel Fortesque. Sure, Nintendo had Mario, Link, and Fox McCloud, three eternally beloved characters in gaming history, but they weren't enough. Even though some of Sony's bigger games were ported to the N64, like Resident Evil and Tony Hawk, it still wasn't enough to help. Nintendo was forced to take a distant second place that generation, despite it's cheaper price point and brand recognition.
This generation, it seems to be the same thing all over again. Instead of PlayStation vs. Nintendo 64, it's PlayStation 3 vs. Xbox 360. Instead of $300 vs. $200, it's $500 vs. $350. Big name titles are going multiplatform, like Devil May Cry and Virtua Fighter. Ultimately, it will be the games that yet again decide which of these two rivals will emerge victorious. (Of course, there are two differences between this generation and two generations ago: 1. MS managed to get their console out first, a whole year at that, giving Sony a very bloody nose, and 2. This time it's Sony with the great brand recognition, coming off of two of the most successful consoles in video game history. These two basically cancel each other out (a positive for one, a positive for the other), in my opinion, so we'll ignore them for the sake of this discussion. Hell, I'll even leave out the Red Ring of Death just to play nice. :P )
Once again, it seems as if Sony is going to best it's competition in the most important area: games. After all, that's what a game console is for, right? Sure, these first 10 months have been somewhat meager as far as content goes for the PS3, but the constant delays have led to a nice end of '07 lineup and a jam-packed '08. This year the ps3 gets quite a few games, like Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (from Naughty Dog of Crash Bandicoot and Jak & Daxter fame), Haze (from Free Radical of Timesplitters fame), the next Ratchet & Clank, Warhawk (truly great MP game, I'm loving it more than BF2), Folklore, and many other exclusives and multiplats that don't need to be listed. Of course, the 360 still has a great '07 lineup, roughly equal to the ps3's, if you ignore Halo 3. However, including Halo 3, the 360's lineup blows everything out of the water!
The problem is, after Halo 3, what big name exclusive games does the 360 have? Sure, it has promising titles like Lost Odyssey set for '08, and a few cool pc/360 games like Alan Wake, but the only really BIG title coming next year is Ninja Gaiden 2.
So far, MS has announced barely any titles for '08, which leads me to believe that they just aren't there. After nothing new was unveiled at e3, Xbox fans said "MS was focusing on '07, they'll show the '08 stuff at X07." But then X07 was canceled. After that all I heard was "Wait for TGS!" At TGS all we got was NG2, which 90% of hardcore gamers already knew about. So when will these games be unveiled? When will MS show this mythical '08 lineup that will dominate the competition? MS has already announced that they will not be attending the E for All Expo, so we know we won't get any new information there.
If there are games set for '08, they'd be well under development by now, and would've been shown by now. TGS was the last stand. For comparison, Sony recently unveiled a new game called Infamous, back at e3. It's being developed by Sucker Punch, the guys behind Sly Cooper, but I have a hard time believing that it will actually make the '08 window. After all, it was JUST revealed, and we know hardly anything about it. Similarly, I believe any new 360 games shown before the end of the year will have a hard time actually making it out in '08, unless they are WELL into development.
In contrast with Microsoft, Sony has a stellar '08 lineup, and even more games set for '09 and beyond. Many of the games set for '08 are franchises with well-established fanbases. They traditionally sell many millions with each iteration in the series, and could be classified as "system sellers," much like Halo 2. FFXIII, GT5, MGS4, and Tekken 6 usually sell at least 4 mil. each. Actually, not one of the first four Gran Turismos has sold below 8 mil., compared to Halo 2, which barely sold 8 mil.
These four games alone make for one hell of a lineup for a single console (popularity/sales-wise). But of course, there are many other games coming next year as well. Killzone 2, Socom 5, FFVXIII, along with other new IPs like White Knight Story are in the works, along with new titles that Sony actually announced THIS YEAR, unlike Microsoft. This year alone, Sony has unveiled LittleBigPlanet (which could turn out to be a massive system seller), Infamous, and others, all set for '08. Sony still has four new games that they plan to announce at TGS, one of which is rumored to be the next Team Ico game (or games?), also set to release in '08. I'd assume Insomniac's next title will be out next year as well (Resistance 2?).
In addition to all of these are many multiplats like DMC4, making for one massive lineup next year.
Of course, there's a great '09 lineup to anticipate as well. There's God of War 3, Star Ocean 4, the next Naughty Dog game (hopefully the long rumored Jak & Daxter: The lost Frontier), and the next games from Insomniac, Ninja Theory, etc. And then there's the long rumored Final Fantasy VII remake as well.
So far, the three major titles i'm seeing for the 360 are Ninja Gaiden 2 for '08, Gears of War 2 for '09, and Banjo Three-ie somewhere in between. That's not very much. Maybe Shenmue 3 will surface at the Sega booth next week? Even NG, as good as the series is, doesn't sell very well, as it is often decried as being too hard for the casual gamer, so I can't see it doing much more for sales than NGS did for the ps3.
In conclusion, the 360 needs to maintain an excellent lineup of games to continue beating the ps3. However, looking at Sony's '08 lineup, there's no way in hell that could happen. From '08 on, when the games start hitting and the PS3's price drops to $399 USD or lower, I predict that the ps3 will begin outselling the 360 substantially across the globe (though not so much in the US).
