Since there was a thread every time wii went +0,1% on marketshare, I think we need a thread when it goes down. How about that, 50% seems far away now? Will it ever reach there? Is this a new trend? :O Discuss!

With those figures, it is pretty obvious that wii will not be the "PS2" of this gen. 70% marketshare seems impossible now.

I think 70% marketshare in the console space will be unachievable for a long time, Nintendo have completely changed the market. I don't think we'll see PS2 or GB style domination any more.

How has wii "completely changed the market"? It has expanded the market to some degree but that's about it.

People who didn't buy games are buying games now. The market is bigger than it's been before, and that expansion isn't likely to stop. More companies will want a piece of the pie. I don't think it's going to be possible to achieve such massive domination of the past, because there are more consumers to appeal to.

i think the wii will surpass the ps2 in terms of Lifetime sales but I don't think it will achieve 70% market share maybe 50%...

Is there really some grounds for that the wii would have expanded the market that much?

If you compare the leading/second/third place consoles from last 2 gens(from the launches) you will see that:

Wii has done:

3,2m better than ps2 in america
3,1m better in eu
1,5m worse in jap

=4,8m better than last gen number 1 console overall

360 has done:

3,3m better than xbox in america
4,5m better in eu
500k better in jap

=8,3m better than last gen number 2 console overall

ps3 has done:

500k better than gc in america
6,5m better in eu
200k worse in jap

=6,8m better than last gen number 3 console overall.

Raw numbers wise second and third place consoles have done better than wii and percentage wise a lot better. :O

50% maybe in 2011 or 2012 at current pace

You are seriously underestimating the WM+, it will be definitelly a big system-seller, similar the relaunches of the DS series.

I think 60% is clearly possible with that, and even more, if there will be other similar updates.

No, you are overestimating it.