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Forums - Sales Discussion - Peter Moore: Next Xbox in 2011-2012 (EGM)

Louie on 11 March 2007

washimul said: mrstickball said: Not a huge thing, but I think it's significant. In an interview with Peter Moore, EGM grilled him about when the next one would come out, and questions about if they'd drop the X360 like a box of rocks like they did with the 360. He said that they were going to support it "as long as it sold" which is BS, because the Xbox sold well into this year despite no producting after Oct. 2005. At any rate, he stated the production team from the 360 is working on the next Xbox, and their looking into what kind of CPUs will be available on the market in 2011-2012. That would put the 360 at a lifespan of 6 or 7 years, a far cry from the Xbox's 4 years. Part of this (I assume) is to maintain profitability of the 360 over it's lifespan...The longer you get into the cycle, the more profit you can make due to stopping being a loss leader. How do you think this will affect sales? Personally, I see the 360 pulling a near-PS2 in the US and continue to sell well into 2011 and even 2012. The Xbox franchise seems to be very strong in the US with Halo, and should strenghten further, as MS now will have the entire generation to make games with Rare, Lionhead, Bizzare, and other studios they have. I think 55m worldwide is very reasonable, as it'd be just at 9.1m units sold a year for 6 years - to which the 360 sold in it's first year. but the question is could x360 really survive that long???? after seeing the IRT videos of CELL raytracing............i belive with EDGE and the new IBM tools ps3 destroys just about any competition. Surely Wii is gonna do fine but i seriously doubt x360 could deliver when ps3 tools become more matured in couple of months. x360 pulling a near ps2............lol.........that was a joke. ps3 pulling a ps2..........definitely not a joke. http://www.gametomorrow.com/minor/barry/city_iRT.mov ...raytracing solely by CELL
DS vs. PSP. Graphics don´t matter. It is about the games - do you really think anyone would buy a PS3 because it can do raytracing? That´s the funniest thing I ever heard If Microsoft and Nintendo are able to bring a lot of awsome games than the 360 and the Wii will sell good. Not because they can do raytracing... man... 10 years ago the N64 could do anti aliasing. Did it help? Nope. Topic: It´s a nice decision from Microsoft to wait until 2011 - so they have time to build a large userbase and the market could grow all in all. I doubt MS can sell 50 million 360´s because of Japan but 40 million seems possible. Because of the big differences between the big 3 the market could grow rapidly in this generation.



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ranzchic on 11 March 2007

It depends on how the PS3 does, really. If the PS3 does well, the 360 would probably do better than the original XBOX and sell 5 million more. Its peak will be 07 and slow down significantly. If the PS3 fails, t will also peak in 07 and will continue to sell relatively well in first half of 08 then taper off significantly and sell 10 million more than the original. Both could also have relatively equal market share a la XBOX and Gamecube. It won't be market leader in any territory though after all is said and done. That title is reserved only for Nintendo and Sony this generation.



CrazzyMan on 11 March 2007

xbox360 will save only low price. for 300$ i also would buy 120GB + HDMI xbox360 version. :) next xbox has no chance against ps4, cause ps4 with 8-16 cell inside will beat everything. Just now cell for ps3 is like prototype, the developers gonna find how to work best with cell, and on ps4 with such experience they will make mega power.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

HappySqurriel on 11 March 2007

The only performance that is important in this context is sales performance ... The PS3 can have all the super-powered cell processors in the world and if it doesn't start selling better Sony will be forced to replace it in 2010 or 2011. Now, if I was Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo I would be focusing my efforts on producing as powerful of a console as I could for $200-$250 in 2010 or 2011; as we're seeing with the PS3 and XBox 360, we're hitting a point where having greater performance is not that noticeable so pricing your system at $400 or $600 to get better hardware is mostly counter productive.



Stromprophet on 11 March 2007

Louie said: DS vs. PSP. Graphics don´t matter. It is about the games - do you really think anyone would buy a PS3 because it can do raytracing? That´s the funniest thing I ever heard If Microsoft and Nintendo are able to bring a lot of awsome games than the 360 and the Wii will sell good. Not because they can do raytracing... man... 10 years ago the N64 could do anti aliasing. Did it help? Nope. Topic: It´s a nice decision from Microsoft to wait until 2011 - so they have time to build a large userbase and the market could grow all in all. I doubt MS can sell 50 million 360´s because of Japan but 40 million seems possible. Because of the big differences between the big 3 the market could grow rapidly in this generation.
No, graphics don't matter for handhelds. They do to some people for consoles. (If you take 360 and PS3 together they are outselling the Wii, given the similarities between the 2 hi-def systems and more expensive nature that shows that more than 50% of the gaming market would prefer HD over the Wii)



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Stromprophet on 11 March 2007

HappySqurriel said: The only performance that is important in this context is sales performance ... The PS3 can have all the super-powered cell processors in the world and if it doesn't start selling better Sony will be forced to replace it in 2010 or 2011. Now, if I was Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo I would be focusing my efforts on producing as powerful of a console as I could for $200-$250 in 2010 or 2011; as we're seeing with the PS3 and XBox 360, we're hitting a point where having greater performance is not that noticeable so pricing your system at $400 or $600 to get better hardware is mostly counter productive.
I'd say 400 dollars is a reasonable price point. I disagree, the 360 and PS3 performance difference in comparison to the Wii is very noticeable. It's more of a question of whether or not you like arcade style games or whether you want all out blockbuster type games that use massive graphics, physics, and complex AI. For microsoft it would be good for them to support the system longer. A lot of Xbox fans, myself included didn't appreciate the short 4 year life cycle. The first thought in my mind was, didn't I just spend money on this? 7 years, I doubt they go that long. I think Atari and Nintendo were the only consoles to ever go that long with no new system. Playstation usually goes 6 years, Nintendo usually sticks to 5 year life cycles.



kars on 11 March 2007

CrazzyMan said: next xbox has no chance against ps4, cause ps4 with 8-16 cell inside will beat everything. Just now cell for ps3 is like prototype, the developers gonna find how to work best with cell, and on ps4 with such experience they will make mega power.
Not really. In fact the cell caused some discussions in 2005 but since then it was generally realized, that the Cell is exactly what it was designed for: A special development for LowCost Cluster computing, with a rather low power consumption. What it is not is a kind of ÜberProcessor, as it was sometimes described by Sony! It's weaknesses are a part of its design. 1: Instead of a unified cache it must work with its internal ring bus and the SPEs are in trouble if they can not work mostly in their own 512 KB of memory. 2: IO intensive applications can saturate its memory interface. 3: The SPEs are designed for single precission floats, not double precission floats, that are needed in most cluster applications. Its limitations are more or less the same as in the days of the transputer hype more than 20 years ago. Although it is possible to write pürograms that do not obey Amdahl's Law (thanks to unified caches), its fundamentals are valid, and there are still no easy solutions for the problems of parallel programs, instead there are only solutions for special problems.



stewacide on 11 March 2007

I think the real question with the next Playstation and Xbox is to what extent will they follow or try to top Nintendo in terms of innovative control? Can they get away with *another* generation with the same-old gamepads? Is there something even more far-out innovative than what the Wii is doing they can move to? The direction for the next Wii I think is pretty clear: make an eye-toy-ish camera (in the sensor bar) standard kit (for for eye-toy like games, and absolute positioning of the wiimote/nunchuck)... add a microphone to the Wiimote... big hard-drive for downloadable... The thing developes itself.



Kwaad on 11 March 2007

CrazzyMan said: next xbox has no chance against ps4, cause ps4 with 8-16 cell inside will beat everything. Just now cell for ps3 is like prototype, the developers gonna find how to work best with cell, and on ps4 with such experience they will make mega power.
Gotta say it but he does have a point. The CELL is the perfect scaling processor. They could easily strap 4-8 CELL processors in the PS4, and it require a little more code, and programed a little more diffrent, but the key thing is. It is the same general code system. As long as they stick with Nvidia... the graphics card API will be near identical as well, with just the new stuff to use on there as well. There would be ZERO backwards compatablity issues. I'm willing to put money on it. The PS4 will use the Cell processor.



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kars on 11 March 2007

stewacide said: I think the real question with the next Playstation and Xbox is to what extent will they follow or try to top Nintendo in terms of innovative control? Can they get away with *another* generation with the same-old gamepads? Is there something even more far-out innovative than what the Wii is doing they can move to?
Well, I think a speech control would in principle even work now. A stereo camera control should be feasibe with the next generation too, so you would no longer need specail controlers as in the Wii for motion detection. The problem will be more, when will you use which kind of interface. In fact even the current next generation is so powerfull, that its capacity will never be used even at the end of its lifetime (a problem of all parallel systems). The biggest changes will be in the memory and memory transfer department, not in the pure calculating power.