they seem to have some obcession with losing as much money as possible this generation so they probably will

The chance of a price-cut is anywhere between not at all and certainly.

Exactly. It's time to bring the European price points to the US.

Another move M$ could take is to offer a $50 game coupon with every 360 purchased, which would allow the money to flow back into the gaming revenue stream, instead of an outight price cut. An elite with Halo 3 and Fable 2 and a $50 rebate would be a very attractive offer, and one that I would certianly take...45nm chipset or not!

They might also drop it if the Wii dropped in price, which is about as likely as the PS3. 2010 is more likely.

In the US, if Sony price drops to $300 then Microsoft will counter with their own price drop. If Sony only price drops to $350 then Microsoft probably won't counter. In Europe, Microsoft won't have any price drops this year regardless of what Sony does.

If there is a price drop it wont be significant. I can see something in the realm of 20-30 USD at most or a redesign coming out. The Arcade being thrown out for a slim and a slight reduction in price (even temporary) to around 180 or 170 USD. It really depends on Sony... if they go for broke with a 100 dollar price cut the pain wont really be on Microsoft, but on Sony's bottom line.