Well if it is going to be 2 or 3 years before the Wii starts "cooling down" in the West then I don't htink Nintendo will have a problem, as they will be passing 100 million Wii's sold by then anyway.

Yeap we won't see much impact in the next 2 years.

Earliest impact to watch it going to be Nintendo stock price as it usually reflects the future growth of the company a lot more than how it is doing in the current year...( Nintendo is probably going to move a lot more like value companies than growth companies and the future P/E is going to drop a lot).

This articles are interesting but are too narrowminded I think. For some reason they compare the Wii with the PSP to make a point, and don't mention the DS success. Second, they don't allow for the upcoming games for the Wii, I am sure that NoJ is counting on Monster Hunter and Motion+ to increase sales. It just seems that they assume that the March sales results are going to be the norm rather than the exception.

Actually there is data to back up their statement but the journalist failed to mention it.

2008 sales were lower than 2007 in Japan despite the first half of 2008 having monster Nintendo software releases there.

2009 is just a continuation of 2008 with no good software released which does make things worse.

I'm disappointed by this article since I'd really expect more from the Wall Street Journal. Of course they got the facts right, but their reasoning actually bases on one Japanese mum with two sons of which one prefers to play the PSP over the Wii.

Also, the mentioning of currency influences for worldwide profits is a little suspicious because they aren't mentioning the number of Wii's sold in NA during march to have a comparation with the number of Wii's sold in Japan, or that Wii's sales are massively increasing year over year in NA. Because of this the article sounds a bit fanboyish to me, but I'm probably overreacting.

However, as others have said, the main reason for the Wii's slumb in Japan is the lack of new software since christmas, and Monster Hunter is surely going to secure a fine lead over the PS3 for the upcoming months. I'm glad though that Nintendo isn't happy with AC's and Wii Music's sales (although I think AC did fine, as long as you aren't comparing it to the DS version).

2 years of Wii hardware slow down in sales and confirmation by Nintendo CEO of a slow down of Nintendo sales is hardly annecdotical ( much less at least than you quoting E3 2007 numbers to tell us how today the Wii user base is...).

You know the one thing that hasn't been pointed out in is that the Wii has consistently sold within the 17000 - 22000 range, without any of the "core" games they are speaking of. Not only that it gives the impression that the Wii will NEVER get any core Japanese-centric games in the near future.

...I just don't understand trying to forecast a trend without looking at the COMPLETE picture. IDK, maybe it's cause I do analytical work for a living...*shrugs*

Correct.  However I think the decrease in sales for the 2008 year was due to NoJ expectations in the success of Wii Music and AC during the holiday season.  Thus, I don't believe that it is a dowward trend, but rather a low period due to a miscaculation, which will reverse if NoJ meets their expectations this year.

I think 2009 will be lower than 2008 but not on the scale that it is now ( right now sales are down  63% compared to 2008, 412k units vs 1.114 million units), it's just going to be very hard to make up for the drop in Q1 during the rest of the year...

One of the issue the Wii is suffering from in Japan is that if you want to develop a niche budget title (for which there seem to be a huge market in Japan) and want to target the biggest audience you do it on the PS2, not on the Wii ( as can attest the weekly Japan software sales, every month or so there is a PS2 title that does 80k+ on first week..)

Nintendo have responded to articles like this by stating they are unconcerned and are planning a strong software in the second half of the year to drive hardware sales in Japan. After having outsold the PS3 for 16 consecutive months, I doubt 1 month is cause for concern or representative of Nintendo's long-term position in Japan. Let's judge the state of affairs in Japan once Wii releases pick up, and how PS3 sales hold up to Wii in that situation. Wii Sports Resort, Monster Hunter 3, Punch-Out!! and whatever else Nintendo have up their sleeves should revitalise the Japanese console market.