A quick copy and paste job from everyone's least favorite market analyist, Michael Pachter.
Entertainment Software: August 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect +12% Sales Growth
We expect August U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, September 13. We forecast sales of $445 million, +12% compared to last year's $399 million.
Our estimate reflects $310 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $135 million.
We estimate sell-through of 420,000 Wii, 240,000 Xbox 360, and 150,000 PS3 hardware systems.
Our forecast assumes PS2 software sales of $107 million, down 31% compared to last year and much weaker than the last three month's average of -20%, but consistent with our full year projection.
Sales growth over the last 12 months was a robust 16%, with last month up 11%. However, we expect more modest sales gains through the summer, as comparisons got tougher in June and remain tough until the holidays.
We continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales.
We expect major share price appreciation for the major video game publishers by the end of the year as investors gain confidence that the next generation console cycle is in full swing, and recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, GameStop, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.
For August, we expect the following revenue results:
· Activision -- $65 million, +254% y-o-y.
· Atari -- $2 million, -55% y-o-y.
· Electronic Arts -- $135 million, -11% y-o-y.
· Majesco -- $3 million, +11% y-o-y.
· Midway -- $3 million, -49% y-o-y.
· Take-Two -- $60 million, +221% y-o-y.
· THQ -- $23 million, -5% y-o-y.
· Ubisoft -- $22 million, +90% y-o-y.
We expect August sales to be driven by new releases Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 08 (PS2, PS3, Xbox, 360, GC, DS, PSP, PC, Wii), Nintendo’s Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Wii), and Take-Two’s Bioshock (360, PC) along with continued sales of Activision’s Guitar Hero Encore: Rocks the 80's Exp and Guitar Hero 2, Electronic Arts’ NCAA Football 08, and Nintendo’s Wii Play. We expect Xbox 360 hardware and software sales to increase over prior months due to the Xbox 360 price cuts.
Specific SW:
Madden 1.9M
Bioshock 600k
NCAA 300k
Guitar Hero Encore 300k
Boogie 150k
Stuntman + Moto GP 100k (combined)
Our views for console hardware sales are as follows:
Wii 420,000
PS3 150,000
Xbox 360 240,000
PS2 225,000
PSP 210,000
DS 400,000
GBA 75,000
PS2 software sales declines have moderated over the past three months, given the phenomenal lineup of massmarket games released in May and June (-19% in May, -21% in June, -22% in July). The degree of PS2 software sales declines in the second half of the year will depend upon next generation console sales, as most next generation consoles are likely replacements for current generation consoles. As total next generation hardware sales increase, we expect a corresponding decrease in PS2 software sales, and we have modeled a decline to -31% in August.
My take:
X360 sales are too low, PSP is too high (PSP slim coming out). Outside of this, for software, Madden seems too low. It'd be REAL interesting if Boogie really had that many sales, but I doubt it did....Maybe he thinks it'll sell like MP8 did?
Also, not mentioning MP3 is kind of an injustice. It should be there outside of an informal "yeah, it sold units" but totally failing to mention anything vs. Bioshock, or other games.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
