Pachter: This is the Last Console Generation

Wedbush Morgan analyst predicts we've seen the last of new gaming consoles.

At the GamesBeat 2009 Games Conference in San Francisco today, games industry analysts Michael Pachter (Wedbush Morgan), Colin Sebastian (Lazard Capital Markets), and David Cole (DFC Intelligence) delivered their thoughts on the next 10 years of the games industry. Most interesting are the analysts' predictions for the next console generation -- or lack thereof.

"I think we've seen the last generation of consoles," Pachter claims. He says Nintendo will likely upgrade the Wii at some point (perhaps withHD and more storage), but all three console makers will be reluctant to release any subsequent consoles -- in the future it'll be more about a standard delivery platfrom. Why? Because there's no money in it for them. And because the third party publishers simply won't allow it. "[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720," he says, pointing to the fact that they're already largely struggling with the cost of developing games today. "The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can't afford it," he continues, suggesting that the current crop of consoles will be the ones to last us well into the future.

Sebastian disagrees, instead saying the game's industry will have one more console generation, which will hit in 2012. Cole agrees with him, saying that in 2012 the PS3 will be the leading platform for software sales and that both Microsoft and Nintendo will be forced to launch new platforms (Sony would likely wait a bit longer).

Patcher at least agrees that we wouldn't see another Sony platform for quite some time. "Sony is not going to put out a console until they make a profit on this generation, and my math puts that at around 2015." 

http://www.1up.com/do/newsStory?cId=3173424

 

Thoughts?

april fools isnt till in a few weeks later.

Well seeing as what nintendo did from GC to Wii. Sony/Microsoft can do the same upgrading there console but not by any means like from Ps2/Xbox to Ps3/Xbox360. I mean the Online between the two consoles could be transfered over. And i just heard that Sony cut the prices for the Dev's by almost 80% so i mean thats got to help them alot right? I believe there will be a next Generation console between the 3 big guys. But i wouldnt count on seeing one til 2013-2015?

Maybe in MS and Sony's case, but Nintendo makes a hell of a lot of money when they release their new consoles. It would be in their best interest to continue to release new hardware. And if they release one, Sony and MS will have to follow suit.

You can't continue to drive sales and expand markets without entering something new or appearance of "new". Otherwise the market will crash. It happened back in the 80s. For an analyst, this is not a very smart prediction. Sure they'll use up all your "revision" options but eventually they'll have to release another one. Let's hope they don't wait til such extremes to do it.

I think all we'll know after this generation is that generation life cycles will probably be longer than the traditional 4-5 years.

Somebody shoot him. He's like analyst version of Jack Thompson....pure idiocy

That OnLive thing just announced could support this theory. I can't see it happening though.

What I don't get is why he first predicts that this is the last generation, but then says Sony will put out a new Playstation in 2015.

He's a douche.

I agree with him, actually. Games are about money. Upping the bar makes almost no sense until pretty far in the future, relatively speaking.

There will be one more generation, but it won't be for a while, and it'll only be an incremental improvement. After that, it'll take an electronics revolution -- and I'm not talking nanotech, either.

Computational power will only get greater at the cost of more money, for some time.  That's contrary to the whole idea of a game console.

Pachter LOL, This guy is delusional.

I think you're talking about a technological plateau. Think about it this way: Do you think people one hundred years back imagined something like the Playstation 3? I think there's a lot more to be discovered and a lot more space for the gaming industry to grow, more than is conceivable at this time.