Looking at FY over FY, last year at this point there had been 16 million Wiis sold vs 11.4 million this year.
This means the Wii is 4.6 million down this FY over the last one, which will mean that the reduced projection will likely be hitted. Nintendo initially expected 26 million Wiis to be sold from April 09 to April 2010, but then in November, they changed their forecast to 20 million Wii's.
In order for the Wii to reach 20 million sold, it will have to sell 8.6 million until April starts. In other words they will have to sell an average of 537,000 units / week. It will all depend on how well the Wii sells this holiday season. Last year the Wii sold 4.85 million units during the last 4 weeks of the year, so if the Wii sells say 4.3 million (which is half of the total it needs to reach the projections) then they will need to sell an average of 360k units / week, which would seem a lot. The Wii on the same period last fiscal year, exactly managed that, 4.3 million in the 4th quarter. Nintendo something big in Q4 of this FY if they expect to reach the projections.
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tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."
Bets with Conegamer:
Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.
Fullfilled Prophecies