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Forums - Sales - 2009 trends and predictions..

thx1139 on 12 March 2009

@Seihyouken,

 

Interesting how you believe that Sony while the economy is in terrible shape and Sony in terrible shape will cut price by $100.  You state that the PS3 is borderline profitable now. Do you really think that going from borderline profitable to $100 loss per console will really happen? As for special bundles to help offset costs. I dont think so.  By the time the fall rolls around the standard drive will probably be a 160GB drive (this keeps the costs down) and the standard driveon the 360 about the same.

To think that a PS3 still double the price of the Arcade will outsell the 360 is nuts.  Momemtum for the 360 is just going to grow and MS has the upper hand to respond with price cuts.  And Software wise when a console has sold 30 million units no software will make a dramatic difference.  Even now Killzone 2 did what maybe a 100K bump for the PS3.  Hell even a 1,000,000 bump wont help so dont expect GT5 to help close the gap.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

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Sullla on 13 March 2009

JGarret, the PS3 will remain a viable gaming platform, but only in the sense that it continues to share 90% of its gaming library with the 360. Announcements of third-party exclusives for PS3 have pretty much disappeared, outside of a few Japanese-centric titles. PS3 owners will still have tons of games to play, because every "HD" game will continue to be multiplatform. But Sony's going to have to deliver pretty much everything exclusive themselves. And because the 360 will always enjoy a price advantage over the PS3, and the two platforms will always share something like 90% of the same gaming library, it will continue to inch further ahead.

Seihyouken, you are merely repeating identical talking points that I've been hearing for the past 30 months. "When Sony gets ___ game out and cuts the price, THEN the sales will explode!" Well, I'm still waiting for that to happen. Remember, we're essentially already at the midway point of the 7th generation; the 360 is in its 4th year and Wii/PS3 in their third. The boat has long since sailed for PS3 to make some grand comeback. The 360 outsold the PS3 in 2006, 2007, 2008, and it is mopping the floor with the PS3 right now in 2009. There is no empirical evidence to suggest that their fortunes will reverse. Until I see Sony's platform consistently start outselling Microsoft's for a sustained period, I'm going to continue to treat all such predictions with disdain.

This isn't about fanboyism. It's understanding a market.

As far as the claims of Sony being far better able to afford massive price cuts on hardware, well, you may want to read Sony's own press releases... the ones that having them posting their biggest losses in a decade and completely reorganizing their electronics divisions. These are not the actions of a company that wants to engage in a price war with its competitors!



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

saicho on 13 March 2009
Seihyouken said:
Sullla said:

I would like to echo mrstickball's comments, as I see a very similar situation playing out. Wii continues to do crazy numbers due to lack of supply contraints, and it should be able to maintain about a 40% increase year over year simply by releasing a stream of new software late in the year. (I mean, Wii did great numbers in the last two quarters of 2008 without releasing hardly anything big on the software side.)

360 won't be able to maintain 60% increase year over year, simply because the sales were so good after the autumn price cut last year. Still, I predicted in January that this would be an excellent year for the 360, in both hardware and software, which is being borne out thus far. This will be the year that the 360 cements its second place status (although Sony fans will continue to argue for a miracle comeback for the PS3) by pulling 10m+ ahead in hardware.

I see PS3 having a rough year. The only game that would noticeably affect hardware sales is Gran Turismo, and that's not coming until Christmas, and most likely not until 2010. Notice how Killzone 2 did great software sales, and did nothing to attract new users by moving hardware. That's kind of the year I see ahead for Sony... The only other thing they can do is cut the hardware price, which ensures that Sony will never make a dime off of the PS3. Are they willing to go there? I think Microsoft is hoping that Sony does try slashing prices, so Microsoft can undercut them on price yet again and continue to bleed Sony dry of capital. Anyway, by the end of 2009, it will be clear to just about everyone that PS3 will remain in 3rd place permanently.

I wrote down 80m/40m/30m at the start of the year for hardware, and I'm still feeling pretty comfortable with them.

I can't say I agree with your predictions. For one, it's quite clear that Killzone 2 did in fact move a fair amount of hardware. Not to the extent of Metal Gear Solid 4 or Halo 3, but certainly more than any game released on 360 last year, and I think that's noteworthy. You also make two big assumtions in your analysis. One is that Sony couldn't profit if they cut price, and the other is that Microsoft would be willing and able to undercut them. Personally, I don't see either of these being true. For one, Sony is borderline profitible at the moment, particularly in Japan and mainland Europe. With the upcoming 40nm hardware revisions coming later this year, likely in the summer, Sony should be able to sell the PS3 at $299 worldwide without being any worse off then they were in 2008. However, with increased hardware sales comes increased software sales and with huge 1st party releases such as Gran Turismo 5, Ratchet & Clank Future 2, Uncharted 2, and God of War III, much if not all of Sony's hardware loses would be offset right off the bat. Sony could also periodically release a premium bundle similar to the 160GB Uncharted bundle at $399 to help offset losses. For your second assumption, I just don't see Microsoft cutting price to match Sony if they cut price. If Sony only cut price by $50, then PS3 still likely wouldn't be capable of outselling 360 this Christmas or even in the new year. It'd likely be a waste of money on Microsoft's part to match Sony's cut and companies like Sony and Microsoft NEVER cut price unless they need to. On the otherside of the spectrum, if Sony took the much more likely course and cut price by $100, then Microsoft really couldn't afford to match them. If Microsoft cut the price of the 360 by $100 later this year, they'd likely to cutting into the base production cost of the system, which means they'd be selling the system at a permanant loss from then until they take it off the market. And with Microsoft going on record about keeping the 360 on the market much longer than the original Xbox, that could amount to upwards of 2-3 years. Microsoft isn't that self-destructive. They won't conciously throw away all profitiblity this generation just to stick it to Sony this Christmas.

In all likelyhood, the price of the two consoles in Q4 will be $399 for the PS3 and $149 for the 360. A $100 cut from Sony and a $50 cut from Microsoft. At that price difference, PS3 will likely outsell 360 this Christmas and greatly outsell it through most of 2010. 2009 so far is, and will continue to be similar to 2007 and 2010 will be similar to 2008. History will repeat itself.

1.Assuming Sony is borderline profitable right now, they would be borderline profitable or at loss again if PS3 has a $100 price cut.

2. If history taught us anything, that is Microsoft is willing and able to undercut Sony at every turn in the console war. Finacially Microsoft is also in much better shape than Sony right now and they can totally afford it.

 



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

Pristine20 on 13 March 2009

@OP

17.65m for 360 seems kinda high but maybe it's just me.

As for those expecting sony to drop the price, realize that even nintendo with their billions of profits wants to raise prices because of yen exchange rates. It's kinda far-fetched to expect sony who is struggling to post a profit to then drop prices by $100?

I personally think ps3 would never drop below 100K/week all year. This means that it'll still be in a much better position than any other 3rd place console ever. Some 3rd parties may decide to skip the ps3 with a little push from M$ but the vast majority would remain especially those releasing games that do well in Japan (without M$ $$$) and those releasing big budget HD titles because for them, an extra 20+ mil userbase can't be ignored.



"Dr. Tenma, according to you, lives are equal. That's why I live today. But you must have realised it by now...the only thing people are equal in is death"---Johann Liebert (MONSTER)

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It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler

xman on 13 March 2009
kowenicki said:

So we have the following changes YOY to march 7th for worldwide numbers.  i.e. Jan to March 7th 09 v Jan to March 8th 08 (I have assumed Famitsu for Japan numbers for this week only)

 

Wii up 40%

360 up 59%

PS3 down 13%

 

It is clear that the market as a whole is up, so if this is extrapolated throught he rest of 2009 then we would have year end numbers of:

 

wii   sales of 34.35m   year end: 78.8m

360  sales of 17.65m   year end: 44.6m

PS3  sales of 9.02m   year end:  28.2m

 

I think the install bases are such that none of the consoles can expect much of a hardware boost from any new game launches, be it a Halo, Gears, GOW or GT5 title. (if indeed any of those hit 2009)

I have to say the wii number looks a bit too big for me and the PS3 one a bit low... but thats what the stats give us.

Discuss?

 

 

The numbers look good but all depends on a PS3 cut of when and how much.  I think a decent curt early in the year and you can add 3-5 million more easy



PS3, WII and 360 all great systems depends on what type of console player you are.

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