Okay last gen I figured 140 million PS2 owners, 21 million gamecube owners. And 24 million xbox owners.

This gen. 44 million wii owners, 28 million 360 owners, 21 million PS3 owners.

My question is with 85+ million owners from last gen not even in this gen yet. Why do people say the wii has won and the PS3 is dead? Half of the wii users are new time videogame players. 50% of their sales are to mothers who want the kid friendly console.

Micorsoft has only seen 4 million more sales with the 360 in 3 years then the xbox sold in 4 years. Yes its an improvement. But that doesnt mean they have beaten ths PS3 IMO.

Sony, god did they fuck up. almost a 120 million lead blown to being behind by about 23 million. I think many people with a PS2 still have a console to pick up. 

Okay so those 85 million(probably more like 100 million but lets not even count the any of the extra the wii sold then the gamecube as new videogamers) going to go?

Some might say to the wii because most of the 140 million were/are casual gamers. Some might say the 360 because its cheaper then the PS3. Some may say the PS3 because well its PS3's younger brother.

What does everyone think about this? BTW I got all numbers from wiki. Not from VGchartz.

Let's not forget those who bought consoles with DVD playback solely for that purpose. Also, multi-console owners (sometimes owning more than one of the same console). I don't think you can slice up the userbase from last gen quite so easily.

youre assuming that the market is static, whereas sales trends indicate that the market is growing for both Hardcore and Casual consoles, the Wii will almost certainly win looking at LTD sales, but youre right that ALOT more consoles will be sold this gen, distribution of the 85m you came up with would likely be Wii:43m/360:25m/PS3:17m or something like that

Still though. I don't think thats more then 1% of the people who owned a PS2 last gen. Unlike this gen it didn't take so many years for cheap DVD players. In fact my I think we had a DVD player before a PS2.

how is 20m (current PS3 sales) + a potential 17m more sales (at least) making 37m sales 1% of 140m?

Wait..... you think the ps3 has a chance of beating the wii?

Besides the complete lunacy of it , why do you think ps2 owners have even the slightest interest of upgrading to a ps3 without the backlog to back up that price-tag. Many people are just looking for fun games no matter where , there is not an urgency to upgrade just yet until either system backlog beats the ps2's.

I was replying to the amount of people last gen that bought a PS2 as a DVD player.

I think more people will flock to the PS3 from the PS2 after a price cut. More then the 17million you suggest I think at least 30 million, then the wii taking more of whats left then the 360.

I didnt say it would beat the wii. I said the wii isn't for sure in first place, and the PS3 sure as hell isn't dead.

I think the Wii will be first for the rest of the gen, then the PS3, and last the 360.

the best the PS3 can hope for is second place, theres no point claiming that 140m PS2 owners (at least 40m of which have probably bought current gen consoles) will all buy a PS3, its daft, all the trends this gen show the Wii well ahead of PS360 and the 360 with a lead on the PS3, the PS3 might catch the 360, but there is no chance of the PS3 outselling the Wii

I am not saying it will. Did you just read my post or just repost what you said before? I do think the PS3 will pass the 360 within 2 or 3 years. Look at the PS2's life cycle. I am fairly certain halfway through the gen most PS1 owners upgraded. I think that is about when the PS2 owners upgrade. I am asking what you guys think they will upgrade to.