Anyone with eyes can see that a price cut is coming, it's just a question of when. Logically, the best opportunity for Sony to get the most marketshare increase from their cut is right before or during the holiday rush. All major price cuts always come between September and November.

Also, if Sony were to bite the bullet and issue a $100 cut, then I can guarantee you that Microsoft wouldn't do the same. The reason for which is simple, Microsoft would actually like to make money this generation. No matter how many improvements and cost reductions are made to a system, there will always be a point where the system simply can't be reduced any cheaper. That point can be considered the base manufacturing cost. If Microsoft were to reduce the price of the Arcade model by $100 this year, they'd likely be breaking into that cost, which would mean that they'd be selling the system at a permenant loss from now until they decide to take it off the market. Microsoft isn't stupid. They aren't going to set themselves up for losses this entire generation just to stick it to Sony in Q4.

Nobody with half a brain thinks that the PS3 will ever be cheaper than the 360, but in all likelyhood, the 360's biggest price advantages are occurring. Should the PS3 drop it's price by $100 later this year, the 360 will likely never be $200 cheaper than it again. Furthermore, 360 has already broken into the mass-market priced at $200. PS3 still has years of price drops ahead before it even starts selling to its full potential.