WTF of a prediction is that?
if the game is aimed at a small crowd on a console that most of that small crowd despise
AND
if the game hasn't been heard of before release (no fanbase, so games like conduit don't count as it has fans...)
then it'll fail?
gee you're brilliant to figure that out....

Other predictions you might like to claim:
_ the sun will rize again....
_ when it snows it'll be cold outside....
_ if you hit your head on a rock it'll go BOOBOO

Sweet mother Mary.

I'm sorry, this is not a good prediction. It is not even close to a good prediction. Your prerequisites for success are preposterous. No More Heroes, according to you, was a failure - even though it's the most successful game the studio has ever made, broke every single sales expectation they had, and made them lots of money, and is getting a sequel.

No, no, this doesn't work at all, you need to come up with another topic.

^agreeing so much i might just be a fake account?

Your sig disturbs me mesoteto...

Anyway, pretty crazy prediction I think. I agree that at least 50% of games that fall within your criteria will fail (your definition) but to say all of them will is stretching it.

I think they wont do mind blowingly well, but they can stil lbe successes. I'm curious to see how conduit and madworld do. I think they have the potential to go 1 million

When you are selling games, you are really competing against yourself when it comes to sales target. Who cares if your competitor sell millions more than you?

This thread is assuming that all game developers are egoists that get depressed when their game does not sell as well as another. As long as it sells much more than a predetermined target value, then it's not a failure.

im prety sure NMH, de blob, boom blox, shaun white phillips(if this counts) are all successes. however you post is very much correct when applied to japan

If you go back to the past couple of generations most breakout successes happened on the second or third game in a series ... The reason for that it simple, you could develop a game on a moderate budget and put forward minimal marketing and off of very modest sales you could recover your costs; and if you had decent sales (say 500,000 units) you could put more money towards development and marketing and aim for higher sales. Eventually some of these games hit the threshold of having a good enough game that was well enough marketed that it crossed a threshold and hit new sales levels.

I could be wrong but I suspect that (although they would be based as failures on this website) many publishers would be pleased with the sales of their new IPs if they pass the 500,000 mark on the Wii ... and in my opinion that should be how we define success.

Dude, this thread smells like fear, i know your scared. Firstly COD selling 650k on Wii in 3 months tells anyone that there is enough of a market on Wii to sell core games. Secondly, established franchises like what? banjo kazooie? What happened to the 360 crowd when that established franchise was released?

You know the irony of this is EA, who complained about making unsuccesfull original games this year, made losses on titles for the PS360 systems.

Lets not forget this definition of success. How many PS360 titles have sold less than 500k which, as established in other threads, is simply not profitable for an HD title.

Lastly, its ok. Your just going to have to buy a Wii like everyone else. Deal with it

Maybe you'd have helped your case by giving a list of upcoming games that would or wouldn't fail. So you think The Conduit, Madworld and Cursed Mountain will fail?