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Forums - Nintendo - Wii will never top the 50%! Let's discuss it!

megaman79 on 04 February 2009

If this were the thread olympics you would be jamaica in the bobsled.

Admirable effort but so far off its just embarressing



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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hentai_11 on 04 February 2009
Tremble said:
- High popular games coming to HD console: RE5, SFIV, KZ2, Infamous, Halo wars, FFXIII demo and yakuza, just to name a few. No wii game could match that.

- PS3 will increase its sales in japan: 2008's been a low year for the PS3, 2009 should be much better. Yakuza 3, FFXIII and GT5 will sell tons of consoles.

- Price: wii has always been afordable, a price cut wouldn't have a big impact. The PS3 and the 360 Elite, on the other hand, could get a big boost if there were a price cut, those consoles/sku are still expensive.

- No zelda, mario or metroid this year: last year wiifit, SSMB and MK gave the console a huge boost. There's still no zelda/mario/metroid game announced for this year.

- Economic crisis: yes, once again, THE crisis! Will probably hit more the wii than the other two.

My prediction: Wii will never reach the 50% mark, could even be below 40% by the end of this year.

 

 -The wii doesn't need any of your mentioned games. It sells with WiiSports, WiiFit, Mario Kart Wii, maybe a few others. (That's the reason why these titles chart every week.) Besides this year we will get WiiSports Resort.

- Can't say much about the PS3. But I fear it will be hit most by the economic crisis ...

- Price ... this discusion was made too often.

- You are not informed. There are even two Metroids this year. (only WiiMakes, but I will still get them.) And who knows what Nintendo has planed ...

- Economic Crisis? I am not sure, if the Wii will be hit hardest by it.



Alby_da_Wolf on 04 February 2009

Just as for plain and simple maths it was quite difficult for Wii to reach 50% last year, for the same reason chances are much higher this year, unless average Wii sales share drops too much. If from now to 31 Dec 2009 will be sold another 40million total consoles, keeping an average of 53% is enough for Wii to exceed the goal by 130,000 units.



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A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


TWRoO on 04 February 2009
scottie said:
@ thanny - that was a combination of adjustments from the Christmas period (where the Wii still sold many more consoles than PS360) and January being the worst month for the Wii, due to supply constraints.

Wii should be able to hit 54% by Dec 31

While  am going to ignore tremble in this thread because his post is pure awsomeness of failure (instead I have already copy/pasted his "predictions" into a saving thread of mine)

54% is very optimistic though.... it is the highest percentage I would consider possible for the end of 2009.... it is more likely to be between 52% and 53% while 51% would be an incredibly low pessimisic estimate.



Think about it, the Wii is unlikely to have sold fewer than 75 million by the end of the year, to have less than 50% marketshare the PS3+360 need to have sold the same..... asking the X360 to reach 40 million is a possibility, but it's at the high end of likelyhood, for the PS3 it would be optimistic to reach 33 million.

For the Wii to go down to 40% it would have to stop selling entirely.

 



Batman...WTF? on 04 February 2009

Really? Not happening? ... O.k then...



PLEASE CLICK http://ihatejade.com/?id=s9uc4111iiip9rpjsyteq4kagmo3t5

 

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stof on 04 February 2009

Tremble said:
- High popular games coming to HD console: RE5, SFIV, KZ2, Infamous, Halo wars, FFXIII demo and yakuza, just to name a few. No wii game could match that. Are you suggesting that Metal Gear Solid, Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto, Gears of War 2, Call of Duty 4, Fallout 3 and others weren't popular enough games? or merely that the Wii games have been able to match them so far.


- PS3 will increase its sales in japan: 2008's been a low year for the PS3, 2009 should be much better. Yakuza 3, FFXIII and GT5 will sell tons of consoles. Won't the Wii increase it's sales in Japan too? 2008 also turned in to a low year for the Wii, but 2009 will see  Arc Raiser Fantasia, Kizuna, Monster Hunter 3, Tales of 10,  Crystal Chronicles and other games for the Hardcore crowd, along with Wii Sports Resort, which will probably be the next Wii fit. does the PS3 have something to appeal to that crowd?

- Price: wii has always been afordable, a price cut wouldn't have a big impact. The PS3 and the 360 Elite, on the other hand, could get a big boost if there were a price cut, those consoles/sku are still expensive. You're suggesting that a 250 dollar item wouldn't sell more if it sold for less? 

- No zelda, mario or metroid this year: last year wiifit, SSMB and MK gave the console a huge boost. There's still no zelda/mario/metroid game announced for this year. Metroid hardly pushed consoles, And if Wiifit was seen as a huge boost, what about Wii Sports Resort? That should be a major boost. Besides, we still don't know a lot of the games Nintendo has planned, so maybe there IS a new Zelda/Mario/Metroid/Starfox/F-Zero, or tons of other games. Games like PunchOut, which I'm predicting will be an incredibly successful "Bridge" type game.

- Economic crisis: yes, once again, THE crisis! Will probably hit more the wii than the other two. Or it might hit the really expensive console that also plays expensive blu-ray disks on expensive HD tvs...

My prediction: Wii will never reach the 50% mark, could even be below 40% by the end of this year.

In short, i disagree.

 



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Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

Khuutra on 04 February 2009

I'd just like to add that in order for the Wii to fall to 40% by the end of the year, given current projections for the HD consoles, it would need to stop selling altogether on something like Valentine's Day.



puffy on 04 February 2009

I think the Wii will reach above 53% marketshare



 

Alby_da_Wolf on 04 February 2009

As I wrote, knowing how many units separate Wii from the goal now makes quite easy to calculate what's the average share needed, given a supposed total consoles sold before year's end (*). Right now PS3+XB360-Wii=2.27million.

 

(*)Edit: or before another date, for example this gen's end of life, if we are interested in a different term.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


ramuji on 04 February 2009
Tremble said:

My prediction: Wii will never reach the 50% mark, could even be below 40% by the end of this year.

 

Ok, that last bit took a lot of balls. You probably deserve a standing ovation simply for mustering the gumption to make such a ridiculous statement with (I assume) a straight face.



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